(Guess)
Draft Order	BB	Name	Class	College	Rating	Outlook	Finish	Change
1	1	Floyd James	Sr.	Texas	964	Graduating	S16	0
2	2	Gregorio Yazzie	So.	Stanford	971	Likely going		0
3	3	Ernest Brunk	Sr.	Temple	943	Graduating	Runner Up	0
4	4	William Gregory	Jr.	North Carolina	945	Likely going	F4	0
5	5	Leon Newbern	So.	Duke	934	Likely going	S16	0
6	6	George Jozwiak	Jr.	Air Force	902	Likely going	S16	0
7	9	Claude Beazley	Jr.	Temple	922	Likely going	Runner Up	-2
8	7	Adam Waters	Jr.	Saint Louis	914	Likely going		1
9	8	Bobby Jackson	Sr.	Auburn	924	Graduating		1
10	10	James Olea	Sr.	Arizona	905	Graduating	S16	0
11	13	Michael Beatty	Sr.	Duke	909	Graduating	S16	-2
12	16	Travis Bella	Jr.	Florida	841	Likely going	F4	-4
13	22	Uang Mang	Jr.	St. Joseph's	921	Likely going		-9
14	15	Albert Breeden	So.	Texas	901	Likely going	S16	-1
15	18	Benjamin Dobbs	Jr.	Saint Louis	907	Likely going		-3
16	14	Douglas Moore	Jr.	Iowa State	920	Likely going		2
17	19	Sidney Bilbo	Sr.	Texas	948	Graduating	S16	-2
18	21	Steven Smithey	Sr.	Clemson	920	Graduating		-3
19	24	Robert Meredith	Sr.	Missouri	862	Graduating		-5
20	25	Stanley Trout	Sr.	Kansas	932	Graduating	Champ	-5
21	26	James Largent	Sr.	Arizona State	918	Graduating	S16	-5
22	33	James Colman	Jr.	Florida	926	On the fence	F4	-11
23	27	Trent Logsdon	Jr.	Washington	877	Likely going		-4
24	29	William Mueller	Sr.	Alabama	958	Graduating	S16	-5
25	36	Frederick Kelley	So.	Florida	904	Likely staying	F4	-11
26	37	Christopher Roark	Sr.	Oklahoma State	929	Graduating		-11
27	30	Andrew Blodgett	So.	Baylor	901	Likely staying	S16	-3
28	28	Irving Farrow	So.	Dayton	942	Likely staying		0
29	35	Richard Frye	Jr.	Arizona	896	On the fence	S16	-6
30	32	Orlando Ortiz	Jr.	Oklahoma State	896	On the fence		-2
31	50	Glen Chewning	Jr.	Texas	874	On the fence	S16	-19
32	40	Ronald Case	Sr.	Southern Cal	929	Graduating	S16	-8
33	41	John Durkin	Sr.	Illinois	889	Graduating	E8	-8
34	46	David Gray	Sr.	Maryland	909	Graduating		-12
35	47	Carl Runyon	Sr.	Boston College	902	Graduating		-12
36	51	Joseph Ellis	Sr.	Illinois	852	Graduating	E8	-15
37	55	Ralph Hall	Sr.	Kansas	850	Graduating	Champ	-18
38	56	Sean Alexander	Sr.	UCLA	861	Graduating		-18
39	57	Thomas Boyd	Jr.	Gonzaga	863	On the fence	E8	-18
40	70	Jamie Woodard	Jr.	Florida	806	On the fence	F4	-30
41	62	Chad Fox	Jr.	Arizona	902	On the fence	S16	-21
42	87	Donald Dunaway	Jr.	Florida	871	On the fence	F4	-45
43	74	Paul Rowland	Jr.	Rhode Island	875	On the fence		-31
44	64	Thomas Williamson	Sr.	Arizona	885	Graduating	S16	-20
45	65	Roger Carnevale	Sr.	Georgia	885	Graduating		-20
46	72	Mack Evans	Sr.	North Carolina	821	Graduating	F4	-26
47	75	Ivan Kowalowski	Sr.	Penn	821	Graduating		-28
48	78	Scott Pecoraro	Sr.	Indiana	782	Graduating		-30
49	93	Christopher Murphy	Jr.	Temple	863	On the fence	Runner Up	-44
50	82	James Peck	Jr.	Rhode Island	871	On the fence		-32
51	101	Christopher Earl		Kansas			Champ	-50
52	102	Ben Whitehead		Temple			Runner Up	-50
53	84	Jean Guthrie	Sr.	North Carolina	832	Graduating	F4	-31
54	88	Mauricio Costa	Sr.	Georgetown	835	Graduating		-34
55	89	Jonathan Pittard	Sr.	Kentucky	897	Graduating		-34
56	90	Steven Weist	Sr.	Minnesota	871	Graduating		-34
57	92	Ronald Swafford	Sr.	Arizona State	814	Graduating	S16	-35
58	95	Michael Tyre	Sr.	Georgia	877	Graduating		-37
59	99	Donald Persaud	Jr.	North Carolina	781	On the fence	F4	-40
60	103					Graduating
	11	James Marquart	So.	Stanford	950	Likely going
	12	Vito Russo	So.	UCLA	878	Likely going
	17	Timothy Nelson	So.	Oklahoma	859	Likely going
	20	Jeffrey Castiglia	So.	Charlotte	903	On the fence
	23	Mark Channel	So.	Boston College	894	On the fence
	31	Carlos Stewart	So.	Auburn	929	Likely staying
	34	Harley Knarr	Jr.	Louisiana State	902	On the fence	E8
	38	Steven Cassell	So.	Iowa State	844	Likely staying
	39	John Roberts	So.	Louisiana State	795	Likely staying	E8
	42	Phillip Fleet	Jr.	Oregon	945	On the fence	E8
	43	Lyle Murphy	So.	Baylor	861	Likely staying	S16
	44	Jack Brinkman	Jr.	Kentucky	943	On the fence
	45	Clinton Britt	Jr.	Oklahoma	920	On the fence
	48	William Washington	So.	Duke	853	Likely staying	S16
	49	Thomas Poe	So.	Louisiana State	925	Likely staying	E8
	52	Eugene Neal	Jr.	Georgetown	855	On the fence
	53	Ron Small	Fr.	Air Force	892	Staying	S16
	54	Kenneth Latham	Sr.	Temple	851	On the fence	Runner Up
	58	Eric Hoyt	So.	St. Joseph's	862	Likely staying
	59	Charles Burrier	Jr.	St. Joseph's	887	On the fence
	60	Sidney Weatherford	Jr.	UConn	887	On the fence
	61	Augustus Zisk	Jr.	North Carolina	838	On the fence	F4
	63	Paul Utterback	Fr.	Dayton	888	Staying
	66	Gerald Pinkney	Fr.	Dayton	787	Staying
	67	Floyd Dawson	So.	Arizona	842	Likely staying	S16
	68	Ben Heston	Jr.	Auburn	887	On the fence
	69	Ryan Cole	So.	Florida	888	Likely staying	F4
	71	Zlatko Rudnitski	Jr.	Cal	833	On the fence
	73	John Fletcher	Jr.	Auburn	896	On the fence
	76	Paul Cross	Fr.	Oklahoma	902	Staying
	77	Kurt Smith	So.	Oregon	893	Likely staying	E8
	79	Sidney Haines	Jr.	Baylor	940	On the fence	S16
	80	Larry Self	Jr.	Stanford	811	On the fence
	81	Sam Wilcox	Fr.	Georgia	845	Staying
	83	Chad Smith	So.	Illinois	857	Likely staying	E8
	85	James Viator	Jr.	UC Irvine	897	On the fence
	86	Alan Gay	Jr.	Oklahoma	873	On the fence
	91	Ricky Bryan	Jr.	Louisiana State	921	On the fence	E8
	94	Michael Buchanan	So.	Duke	838	Likely staying	S16
	96	Robert Beede	So.	North Carolina	785	Likely staying	F4
	97	James Nagle	So.	Penn	834	Likely staying
	98	Jason Dewitt	So.	Indiana	853	Likely staying
	100	John Balderas	So.	Colorado	868	Likely staying

12 out of 15 Likely Going left (80%)
12 out of 31 On The Fence left (39%)
3 out of 19 Likely Staying left (16%)

Assuming the "news" is the draft order the following players made more dramatic post season jumps :
(Big board position vs draft order)

James Colman

Jr.

Florida

926

On the fence

F4

-11

Frederick Kelley

So.

Florida

904

Likely staying

F4

-11

Glen Chewning

Jr.

Texas

874

On the fence

S16

-19

Jamie Woodard

Jr.

Florida

806

On the fence

F4

-30

Donald Dunaway

Jr.

Florida

871

On the fence

F4

-45

Christopher Murphy

Jr.

Temple

863

On the fence

Runner Up

-44

Christopher Earl

Kansas

Champ

-50

Ben Whitehead

Temple

Runner Up

-50

The Texas player seems odd given they were only in the S16. Given that the draft order is my guess, he could easily go as #38 instead which would put him in line with the other players in his draft range. (My revised guess is he would be going around #38 instead)

For those counting at home, that’s five EEs in this class for my Gators. I lost 1 Likely Going, 3 On the Fence, and 1 Likely Staying.

Is 5 EEs in one season a (dubious) record?

That’s brutal, highcountry. I think a couple of your players (Colman and Kelley) bumped up when they moved into the first round, and that hurt you. Your legit second rounders, that’s just bad luck. You get to experience the joy of rebuilding, though. You’ll be back!

Mully, did you record both the big board before the NT and after the NT?

The big board has not changed as far as I can tell. I am waiting till the draft to see if it changes after that.

I'd like to check another world on the news feed order. When doing the EE data collection, I remember that a couple of the worlds did go more in order by position of big board. Phelan was completely all over the place and that was not typical from what I remember. It wouldn't surprise me if something got messed up with the 3.0 transition and roll out.

And once the draft occurs, I'll update the table to include draft order. That may give us some indication as well.

Posted by highcountry on 11/27/2020 9:24:00 PM (view original):
For those counting at home, that’s five EEs in this class for my Gators. I lost 1 Likely Going, 3 On the Fence, and 1 Likely Staying.

Is 5 EEs in one season a (dubious) record?

10+ years ago i hit 5 EEs while still really new to d1 and back then nobody knew of any greater, but nobody was really that sure (i suppose i could mine the teams draft results and figure it out but that sounds like entirely too much work!). someone had 6 a couple years later, i think lostmyth, can't swear to it. but definitely someone had 6. now 6 is the absolute maximum so i think that record will stand. 5 is actually not as rare as you'd think, its happened to me twice i can immediately recall, and i've seen it a bunch.

it is rough though! especially in 3.0. good luck keeping the pieces together! hope you don't press :)

benis - i've also seen the big board change after the NT, but my VERY minimal looking suggested to me it wasn't the final big board because the changes made zero sense. you seem to have reached the same conclusion (well, that it makes no sense).

i think we should compare the final draft order. if its the same as the final board, it will say quite a lot. i suspect it will be different, but i might be totally misguided there. even if its different, it doesn't prove there is a final big board that we can't see - it could be randomly different for non-NT / AA reasons. however, if it is consistently different for NT / AA reasons, i think it will prove the final big board is unseen.

that would of course leave the lingering question... what the heck is happening for the final big board update we do see. i don't know. insert arbitrary conspiracy theory?

I may be mistaken but I find that even if a player doesn't move on the Big Board after winning an individual award or All American, my personal experience is that they are much more likely to leave. I've had a number of 2nd round picks that were EE after being less than 80 on the Board or less than 100, they get AA, and then leave. This past year, Napoleon left, while being 87 on the board in Allen, but was 3rd team AA and I was knocked in the first round. That example is common for me, so not sure if that's common for others?

Posted by gillispie1 on 11/28/2020 12:21:00 PM (view original):
benis - i've also seen the big board change after the NT, but my VERY minimal looking suggested to me it wasn't the final big board because the changes made zero sense. you seem to have reached the same conclusion (well, that it makes no sense).

i think we should compare the final draft order. if its the same as the final board, it will say quite a lot. i suspect it will be different, but i might be totally misguided there. even if its different, it doesn't prove there is a final big board that we can't see - it could be randomly different for non-NT / AA reasons. however, if it is consistently different for NT / AA reasons, i think it will prove the final big board is unseen.

that would of course leave the lingering question... what the heck is happening for the final big board update we do see. i don't know. insert arbitrary conspiracy theory?

I’m pretty confident there’s a final big board we don’t ever see. When I bother to look, the draft order is usually a little different from the last published big board, among players who go pro. But I also think it’s a mistake to think the only thing that affects the last draft order is NT/AA awards. When players up top start declining to go pro, those outcomes have ripple effects. As you see from mully’s Smith prediction, two of Florida’s early entries were projected in the second round, but due to the number of projected 1st round players who declined to go pro, likely ended up in the first round themselves. We don’t know for sure, but I think there is a very good chance that increases their odds of declaring.

Another possibility - and this is more in the realm of conspiracy, I suppose, but it would actually make sense, given what we’ve seen from players who make big jumps during the season when the system sees them as a different position - is that fake NBA teams draft according to, or at least considering, “position need“. So if the Timberwolves have the 45th pick, and they want a SF, and the highest SF left on the big board declines, they *might* move to the next SF. If that guy happens to be #65 on the big board, it’s going to look like he made a huge jump, and it won’t make sense, unless some kind of scenario like this is working. It might be a stretch, if you don’t assume the system is very complicated or intelligent. But again, we know the system already makes big delineation between how it evaluates positions, and how those evaluations impact the big board. So I don’t think it’s outlandish, personally.

Posted by Benis on 11/28/2020 11:29:00 AM (view original):
And once the draft occurs, I'll update the table to include draft order. That may give us some indication as well.

Something seems off with your table there Benis for Phelan.

Theodore Boggs (UCLA) got eliminated in the 2nd round (not S16) and from my news field was the 3rd recruit to declare (after Griffing/Whillhite) so he's very likely in the bottom half of the 2nd round.

CollegiateInsider.com11/27 02:13 AM	UCLA announces sophomore point guard Theodore Boggs will forgo his college eligibility to enter the NBA draft.
Fox Sports11/27 02:13 AM	Arkansas officials not surprised by Vincent Willhite's decision to enter the NBA draft early
CollegiateInsider.com11/27 02:13 AM	Louisville or NBA? Donald Griffing leaving for the NBA
Infinity Sports News11/27 02:12 AM	#1 Miami (FL) wins going away over #2 Saint Louis, 79-67

[Edit] Got to also love the fact that 25!! players on the big board above Boggs decided to stay... this is the reason why EEs are broken.

Posted by buddhagamer on 11/28/2020 8:52:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 11/28/2020 11:29:00 AM (view original):
And once the draft occurs, I'll update the table to include draft order. That may give us some indication as well.

Something seems off with your table there Benis for Phelan.

Theodore Boggs (UCLA) got eliminated in the 2nd round (not S16) and from my news field was the 3rd recruit to declare (after Griffing/Whillhite) so he's very likely in the bottom half of the 2nd round.

CollegiateInsider.com11/27 02:13 AM	UCLA announces sophomore point guard Theodore Boggs will forgo his college eligibility to enter the NBA draft.
Fox Sports11/27 02:13 AM	Arkansas officials not surprised by Vincent Willhite's decision to enter the NBA draft early
CollegiateInsider.com11/27 02:13 AM	Louisville or NBA? Donald Griffing leaving for the NBA
Infinity Sports News11/27 02:12 AM	#1 Miami (FL) wins going away over #2 Saint Louis, 79-67

[Edit] Got to also love the fact that 25!! players on the big board above Boggs decided to stay... this is the reason why EEs are broken.

Ah shoot. Let me double check the results again and I'll repost later.

But the the newsfeed is correct -at least for me. I wonder why it'd be different?? weird.

Benis - can you repost on a separate thread so that when I post final Smith results we dont start confusing users on which world/draft we are chatting about.