When adlorenz first introduced himself and asked to see the features of the WIS community such as YouTube channels or blogs, I sent him an email with links to the blogs that I run in FYC and Around The Horn. That email led to a conversation that included me showing him a Google Doc that I had created by copying/pasting much of csherwood’s old forum post “How To Rebuild A Disaster”, and he was a big fan of that particular document.

From there, he asked me if I could edit and update that document a little bit to create a “How To” guide for new players so that when (not if, but when!) another promotion is run we can increase owner retention by having the new guys be a little more successful than has historically been the case in HBD. Following that conversation, my San Antonio team started Season 53 of FYC and I took the opportunity to begin the re-formatting process.

While in the middle of that season I got a message from kindor, the commish of Addicted Users, about a potential owner swap between that world and Around
The Horn to take over a team that he described as “a bad situation and a full rebuild, no doubt, but it's also a league that trades a lot and a team with a couple talented players, so it's more interesting than just waiting and doing nothing for a while.”

That description sold me on the world, so I figured it was a good opportunity to take my own advice and test out how well it would work. After I took over the team, krindor posted in our World Chat that "csherwood's post was actually about his team in Addicted Users... In the AL East... which after multiple ownership changes over the years is now run by bruinsfan911. Exact same franchise, 12 real life years later."


As we go through the season, I will post what I have in the document and provide updates on how the team is doing…feel free to chime in with advice on things to add or change based on what you read and hopefully I can do csherwood proud as well as piece together something that will be helpful in the future!

As a new player just finishing the first seasons of my teams, and having invested significant time on HBD, there are certainly a lot of things to include in a guide for new users. But, the first 10 items on the list should all be the same: that prospects will never reach their projections, regardless of age, after the first few seasons. The projections are mythical if the prospect already has 3-4 years of pro ball. You're taught at the beginning that position players peak at age 27 (pitchers a bit later), so you see a 23 year-old with huge upside projections and you go for him, despite him already having 5 years pro experience and being 12 points away from those projections in each main category. And, experienced owners know rookie owners don't know this so it gets exploited quickly and aggressively. When I look back at my first trades, they all fell into this scenario (i'm glad i didn't pull the trigger on several that seemed too good to be true!).

(a fix would be if projections showed what players can attain from this point forward, not what could have been if the stars aligned perfectly for the past 3-4 seasons).

After reiterating this point 10 times, it should be reiterated 10 more!

Something for the end of the guide that would be helpful is a recommended list of tasks and their frequency, e.g. "update pinch hitting hierarchy weekly (or after each roster move, whatever you recommend)" and "check to see all relievers have the box checked indicating they can pitch in relief"...these types of tedious but easily missed tasks.

The guide could be arranged as, for each section, the factual info first followed by different ways owners utilize it, e.g. "Advanced Scouting can range from $20mm to $0. higher budgets provide greater accuracy in player ratings. followed by: some veteran owners set this budget to $0, relying on other forms of analysis for player ratings and using the money elsewhere in the budget"...this could quickly get hairy, but showing 2-3 philosophies would move new owner up the curve much more quickly, improve their game experience, and potentially increase both retention and the number of teams they manage.

Scotb, those are definitely topics that I want to touch on eventually, but for now I'm going to start at the most logical place I can think of: the beginning of a season. Here's the first part, complete with commentary specific to my Hartford team. Enjoy, and please feel free to make suggestions...either from the perspective of a new owner who has questions you want answered or a vet who has advice that you wish you'd gotten as a new owner!

Picking Where You Play

When taking over a team, I try to adhere to the “Keep It Simple, Stupid” motto and stay in the same park that the previous owner was using. My logic here is that the previous person probably had a decent idea of what they were trying to do, and had been building the team around that specific park already so it makes the most sense to just continue along the same path.

STEP 1: EVALUATING YOUR TEAM -- POSITION PLAYERS

The first step with any new team is to figure out what you have. Projected ratings are not available until after budgets are set, so there is a serious lack of information about players under 27 years of age. (EDITOR’S NOTE: After age 27, players no longer develop much, if at all...after age 32 they may start to lose a few points here and there.) The best you can do for your prospects is look at their current ratings and, if they look fairly decent, assume/hope the guy's projected ratings will have him looking like a stud.

Therefore, the majority of my concentration until the league fills and we reach Budget Setting Day will be on what my major league roster looks like. My first step is to change positions for all of my players using the position editor links in the GM's Office. I use the Recommended positions, although in some cases I will add or remove a recommended position if I don't agree.

***EDITOR’S NOTE: There are several times throughout the thread where he mentions a six-tiered rating system that he uses, four of which indicate ML talent. Based on this, my guess would be that the following are the categories that he uses:

6. MVP Candidate

5. All-Star Quality

4. Everyday Starter

3. ML Bench Player

2. Long Shot to Make ML Roster

1. Career Minor Leaguer

In order to sort each guy in my system into one of these categories, I have developed the following system that seems to work fairly well: I dump all the ML, AAA and AA players currently on a roster into a spreadsheet and rank them using the formula that I have found to be the most reliable. The top 32 guys are the MVP candidates, the next 32 are the All-Stars etc. all the way down to the career minor leaguers. This whole process is based on the offensive ratings.

In Hartford, I have 11 position players on my ML roster under contract for the upcoming season. Using that method above I have one player in the All Star category (Oberg), one in the Everyday starter category (Cook), two in the long shot category (Nakano & Rivas) and the reset are in the “Career Minor Leaguer” category. My 40 man roster also includes six players currently in the minor leagues, but they all fall into the “Career Minor Leaguer” category as well so they won’t be much help this season. To top it all off, there are only four of these 17 players who are under 27 so I can’t really hope for much improvement anywhere.

Once I have figured out how my roster stacks up offensively, I look at their defense to see where in the field I can put the offensively capable guys without it costing me too much. To evaluate defense, I primarily look at a player’s ratings compared with the site recommendations for each position (this can be found if you click on their position on the “Edit Roster” screen.) After I have narrowed down the list of positions to the ones that the ratings suggest he should be able to play well, I will look at his career stats (compared to league average) to see if I notice any trends that might suggest future success somewhere and then adjust accordingly.

Those 11 players that are under contract for this season cover all of the defensive positions so my guys should at least be able to hold their own in the field this year…which is good because they don’t have a ton else going for them. Now that I know their ratings are sufficient, I may go back and look at stats to make some minor adjustments if I have time, but with a rebuild like this those kinds of tweaks are low on the priority list.

There's so much to put into a document like this. I like the idea of framing it as "the recommendations of an experienced owner" rather than repeating the same info as in the Player's Guide/Help Manual/FAQ. In fact, it might be good to follow the same outline as one of those docs, with "veteran owner commentary" for each point.

A small thing I wish I knew at the beginning is that you can't change your team name. I would have put more thought into it.

STEP 1(B) -- EVALUATING YOUR PLAYERS - THE PITCHING STAFF

I normally run a 13 man pitching staff, especially with an American League team. I find that there really is not much need for more than 3 extra position players when you don't need pinch hitters because of the DH rule. So my bench on an American League team generally consists of a backup catcher, a backup shortstop/utility guy, and a guy with great speed and baserunning skill that can be used as a pinch runner in key late-game situations.

My pitching staff consists of 5 starters, 3 long relievers (guys with starter DUR/STA combinations) and 5 true relievers (4 setup and a closer). If I get very good DUR/STA combos on my relievers I may cut down to only 4 and take an extra position players. Similarly, if I have a top flight starting pitching staff, I may only go with 2 long relievers. Given that this team is a major rebuild project that should take at least 3 years to make the playoffs, I anticipate serious pitching issues until I can develop young talent. I am therefore going to change up my pattern and go with 4 long relievers in anticipation of a lot of short outings by my starters. I will cut back to 3 setup and 1 closer. ***EDITOR’S NOTE: The above structure for a 13 man staff (5 SP, 3 LR and 5 RP) is going to be the basis for my 12 man staff structure as well. In other words, on teams where I feel I can get away with just 12 pitchers, I will eliminate one of the RP slots and run a staff that has 5 SP, 3 LR and 4 RP.

In the case of a rebuild, I’m going to go with 13 pitchers to make sure my staff doesn’t get gassed…at least not too often. The good news here is that I have some contract flexibility on the pitching side so I can get rid of a few guys if I need to. In total, I have eight pitchers on the ML roster who are under contract and this definitely seems to be the bright spot of the organization so far. Five of those eight are serviceable ML starters, including two SP1’s so what is normally one of the biggest hurdles in a rebuild could be a much smoother transition here in Hartford. The contracts for some of those guys are less than desirable, but I can live with it in the short term while I focus on the future. Of the three bullpen arms I’m committed to this season only one is someone that I’d be looking to get rid of sooner rather than later. Neither of the other two are anyone to get overly excited about, but they are useful for sure and especially so during a rebuild.

My next move is to finalize the depth chart that I want to use this season and then plug in the guys that are going to be on the roster to see where I need to fill in the gaps. This is also where I can start shaping my long term plan, as I can see when some of the nasty contracts are coming off the books.

"When taking over a team, I try to adhere to the “Keep It Simple, Stupid” motto and stay in the same park that the previous owner was using. My logic here is that the previous person probably had a decent idea of what they were trying to do, and had been building the team around that specific park already so it makes the most sense to just continue along the same path."

Well, that was your first mistake. Assuming that the previous owner knew what he was doing. If he did, he wouldn't have left such a mess. ;)

13 pitchers is too many. That's all I have to say.

Posted by bjschumacher on 12/30/2020 11:19:00 PM (view original):
13 pitchers is too many. That's all I have to say.

Would you recommend going with 13 hitters and 12 pitchers in a situation like this? That's typically what I'd do for a team in Hartford if it wasn't in total rebuild mode, but I figured this season it might be better to go the other way. Any thoughts are appreciated!

Posted by bruinsfan911 on 12/31/2020 9:39:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bjschumacher on 12/30/2020 11:19:00 PM (view original):
13 pitchers is too many. That's all I have to say.

Would you recommend going with 13 hitters and 12 pitchers in a situation like this? That's typically what I'd do for a team in Hartford if it wasn't in total rebuild mode, but I figured this season it might be better to go the other way. Any thoughts are appreciated!

I've run 11 pitchers in all but 1 of my 136 seasons. Running 14 position players lets me platoon all over the place and keep my position players at or near 100%. The only disadvantage I've noticed is that there are a number of pitchers who can pitch 40-50 IP per season at ERAs in the low-to-mid 3s, and I can't use them; I have to give those 40 innings to a guy with a 0.2 - 0.3 higher ERA. But that's literally 1-2 runs per season difference.

IMO by the time players are in the majors, the 25th man on any roster is either getting less than 100 ABs a season, or pitching less than 40 innings. It's up to you to decide which you prefer, or if you've got a player you want for that particular role.

I also try to run 11 pitchers if possible, and have 14 position players (when I have a competitive team, at least—I go more pitcher-heavy when rebuilding, for the reasons bruinsfan mentioned). This lets me scoop up the low-durability position players other teams often overlook. I usually wind up giving about 11 guys 300+ ABs a year. The rest of the bench gets into games as defensive replacements and pinch runners (I've mentioned it before but the designated pinch runner is absolutely a worthwhile investment in this game, especially if they can double as a defensive replacement).

To run 11 pitchers, you need at least one rubber-armed reliever (40+ stam, 65+ dur) to eat all the low-leverage innings (ideally this guy gets like 150+ innings out of the pen), and it helps to have another guy who can throw 90+ high-leverage innings as well. If I have that guy, I'll put him as my only SUA. My second best reliever is my CLA, the long man is LRA, and the other three are SUBs. If one of the SUBs is significantly better than the others, I'll make him a SUA as well. But I don't subscribe to the "put every reliever as SUA" approach—unless you've got four or five equally good relievers, that's not optimizing your usage, and if you have that many equally good relievers, you're probably not optimizing your cash allocation. Your SUBs should be cheap, above all else. They're only going to throw 30-50 innings, ideally not in high-leverage situations. If you're spending more than $1m on your fifth, sixth, or seventh bullpen guy, that money is probably better spent elsewhere.

Thanks for the input everyone! I have updated that section to recommend that people run an 11 man staff of 5 SP, 3 Long Relievers and 3 true set up men on a competitive team while using a 12 man staff of 5 SP, 4 LR and 3 SU while in rebuild mode. Here's the next update:

STEP 1 (C) - EVALUATING YOUR PLAYERS - ARBITRATION/FREE AGENTS

The final thing I will do before beginning to think about the first day of the season (budget day) is to develop a plan for my players that are currently arbitration eligible or free agents to be. I obviously need to know how much I want to spend on these guys before I set my budget. When looking at arb eligible guys, I look not only at what their arbitration demand is, but I also will hit that "Negotiate Long Term" link and see how much they want per year in a long term deal. If the guy is worth keeping at all (as opposed to simply releasing), I will sign him long term ONLY if his long term per season demand is less than his current arb demand. Otherwise, he goes to arbitration.

Here in Hartford, I’ve already evaluated the arbitration eligible guys because I just included them alongside everyone actually on my roster. The biggest thing here is to figure out how much those players that you plan on keeping are going to cost you so that you can factor that into your budget. This team has one AAA position player up for arb, who I will release, and three of the pitchers that I’ve previously evaluated are also eligible. I plan on releasing two of those three and then offering a deal to the last guy…but he’s in the third year of arb so I need to choose between a long term deal or offering him a 3rd arb deal that will guarantee he hits the market next season. He’s a marginal arm that wouldn’t be useful under other circumstances, so the 3rd arb deal is an appealing option because it means he’ll be a warm body this year but I don’t have to commit to a bad contract long term, even though I have to pay about $5M this year.

When looking at free-agents-to-be, I will also hit that "Negotiate Long Term" button. This is not to see what their demand is (that you can see from the free agency screen), but to find out without having to wait for the email from my team owner whether the guy is a Type A or B free agent. You can find this information in the note section. Having obtained all of this information, I evaluate who I will arbitrate, who I will sign long term, and who I will simply not resign/release.

Looking at the position players who are trying to test the market in Hartford, I find a pair of Type A’s and four others. Given the fact that I’m about to begin a rebuild, I am definitely going to let the Type A guys walk and take the picks that come as a result. Out of the other four, there is one that I am going to consider re-signing as a stop gap defensive option and the other three are definitely out the door. On the pitching side, I find that one of the three options would be a useable ML piece and I have someone currently on the roster who “needed to be replaced ASAP.” I will therefore offer that guy a contract and let the other two walk…if the guy I give an offer to signs, I will release the person who “needed to be replaced ASAP” to make room.

All great stuff posted here so far. I'll inject my two cents because I'm bored. Feel free to disagree with any of this, it's just how I typically do things.

The other option is to release the $5M arb player, sign a cheap FA and roll the money saved over to prospects for IFA. Granted, your first season, you might not have the budget in IFA scouting depending on the budget left you or if you started over. If I'm not keeping a guy long-term and/or know someone likely won't trade for him, I'm releasing him.

In regards to Type A players. If I know they're good, I keep them if possible and trade them. What picks you get in the draft are a crap shoot. For Example, I got higher picks from two Type B FA's than some people did for a Type A FA due to when they signed. So sometimes you'll get more of a sure fire prospect in a trade than in the draft. For example, I signed what I consider a top tier SP that was a Type A. That team received the 44th and 70th pick due to me having a first round pick in the top 16. However, I received the #35 pick from a Type B FA I didn't re-sign.

What I did last season, which has paid off, was sign a few Type B FA's to one year deals. You don't lose anything for that and keep your future financial flexibility. These Type B's also hit the FA market this season and were signed relatively quickly and have given me 3 extra picks in the supplemental 1st round. Instead of just having the 6th pick, I have also gained the 35th, 41st, and 53rd picks.

Scotb50, I'll just go ahead and say I've often gone full seasons (including some in which I won the World Series) without updating pinch hit hierarchy. Even when I do update it, it's mostly just to let the AI set defaults.

If you're updating that weekly or after each roster move, you're either devoting truly absurd amounts of time or too focused on the minutiae

I'll echo what Mark17 said - one thing you'll commonly see a rebuding team do is scoop up 4 or 5 Type A (or Type B) picks. It hurts in the immediate as you lose your 2nd-5th round picks, but you're nearly certain to get more back from it in the next season.