"The #1 seed in our bracket had a 5 point lead with 40 seconds left and lost by 3 to a 16 seed."

Don't think I am going to get over that one for a while...Boxscore

Posted by swany623 on 3/25/2021 12:48:00 AM (view original):
"The #1 seed in our bracket had a 5 point lead with 40 seconds left and lost by 3 to a 16 seed."

Don't think I am going to get over that one for a while...Boxscore

sorry man! that is rough. i've lost two of those, so you are in good company! both as the #1 overall too, for whatever that's worth (apparently very little!)

Posted by gillispie on 3/25/2021 1:16:00 AM (view original):

Posted by swany623 on 3/25/2021 12:48:00 AM (view original):
"The #1 seed in our bracket had a 5 point lead with 40 seconds left and lost by 3 to a 16 seed."

Don't think I am going to get over that one for a while...Boxscore

sorry man! that is rough. i've lost two of those, so you are in good company! both as the #1 overall too, for whatever that's worth (apparently very little!)

That does make me feel better, thanks! It's March so I cannot be too surprised...FWIW the bracket was strange as a whole. Three of the four 16 seeds were at large teams from the GLV. These guys were stronger than their seed line, but sucks anyways.

Posted by swany623 on 3/25/2021 1:26:00 AM (view original):

Posted by gillispie on 3/25/2021 1:16:00 AM (view original):

Posted by swany623 on 3/25/2021 12:48:00 AM (view original):
"The #1 seed in our bracket had a 5 point lead with 40 seconds left and lost by 3 to a 16 seed."

Don't think I am going to get over that one for a while...Boxscore

sorry man! that is rough. i've lost two of those, so you are in good company! both as the #1 overall too, for whatever that's worth (apparently very little!)

That does make me feel better, thanks! It's March so I cannot be too surprised...FWIW the bracket was strange as a whole. Three of the four 16 seeds were at large teams from the GLV. These guys were stronger than their seed line, but sucks anyways.

My stumbling block is the second round in D2. I'm career 3-4 as a 1/2 seed, including a loss as an undefeated #1 overall seed.

Definitely feels like there's a rubber band effect in the 2nd half of games, especially when you have an upset brewing. I guess that's just the nature of playing against a better team but it always seems like they start the 2nd half on like a 9-0 run.

As far as I understand, second half runs are built into the game engine.

I have had several losses like this the last two seasons, including last night. Granted I have a very young team but the unrealistic turnovers in the last couple minutes of games is bothersome.

Posted by craigaltonw on 3/25/2021 1:07:00 PM (view original):
As far as I understand, second half runs are built into the game engine.

Really? What is this about?

Posted by craigaltonw on 3/25/2021 1:07:00 PM (view original):
As far as I understand, second half runs are built into the game engine.

I've never heard this before. Not doubting you at all just wondering what this is based on.

Single game but Wooden D2 Final Four just simmed a 15 point lead with 5 min left only to end regulation on a 4-19 run. Team that blew the lead lost in OT.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=19378938&tab=boxscore

Posted by A_B_G on 3/25/2021 8:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by craigaltonw on 3/25/2021 1:07:00 PM (view original):
As far as I understand, second half runs are built into the game engine.

I've never heard this before. Not doubting you at all just wondering what this is based on.

I saw it mentioned briefly in a chat on the discord server. A coach who is more seasoned will have to chime in. Maybe Top or Cub.

Posted by A_B_G on 3/25/2021 8:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by craigaltonw on 3/25/2021 1:07:00 PM (view original):
As far as I understand, second half runs are built into the game engine.

I've never heard this before. Not doubting you at all just wondering what this is based on.

There’s basically a “correction factor” built into the game. If the underdog holds a first half lead the engine may “correct” that in the 2nd half. It doesn’t happen all the time, but it’s definitely a thing. I’m sure someone less tired than I am right now can explain it more succinctly.

well i dont know about succinctly but i can explain what is going on.

feedback to reduce 'extreme outliers' was built into the engine ~8 years ago, and some post somewhere by seble i believe states which things it applies to, but it definitely includes shooting on a per player basis and foul committing on a per player basis, i believe there's about 5 things total. they may all operate at a player level; i don't recall. major team level stuff like team shooting, team rebounds - are NOT impacted.

basically, to avoid highly unlikely outcomes, and to reduce complaining about 'unrealistic' outcomes, seble put feedback on these items. so if a player misses their first 8 shots, they are pretty likely to make that 9th, more than they'd normally be.

feedback takes a little while to kick in for each item, but in general, feedback is 'engaged' for much of the game, there's nothing special about the last 5 minutes except that the effect of feedback is based on deviation from norm, and the more events that have happened, the bigger room for deviation. feedback won't act on too small a sample size.

basically, we simplify in our thinking about feedback by thinking things like 'if you should be even and are up 15 with 5m, feedback is probably kicking you pretty hard by the end'. that isn't how it actually works; its really a lot of small feedbacks on small items. however, its probably reasonable to think about it on a game level, just be aware its not really how it works. on the flip side, if a favorite team is up 5 when they should be up 20, they are less likely to get upset late, not more. so its not just like a general upset or comeback function; its just pushing for reversion to the mean, to the norm.

its a pretty controversial thing, for a number of reasons...

three big changes happened game play wise from my standpoint. first, the favorite wins more. if you are regularly upset that you got upset, you aren't coaching as well as you are thinking you are. its definitely significantly easier today for favorites to win titles than it was previously. also, individual shooters taking lead roles in the offense was always good, but because feedback works on a per-player level, higher end teams reap an additional theoretical volatility-based benefit from using higher scorers when possible. a big one for me was the per-player foul feedback, it means the 3rd and 4th fouls are definitely less likely to come - which helps press teams (many things were done to hurt press teams around the same time). i saw a significant reduction in early foul outs on my press teams after. also note this means the aggressive setting (leave in longer maybe it is called now?) on the distro page is even more attractive; if you still aren't using that as a default for every player on every team, you should.

i guess when i say big changes... those are ones i felt were pretty noticeable. i don't really know how any of that affects the planning of the average HD coach. i just figured it would be good to talk about the practical impacts of the feedback changes to help folks wrap their head around what feedback even means, i guess. i think the extent of what most people notice is the last 5m seems crazy sometimes, but frankly people used to talk about weird game outcomes at least as much, probably more.

Posted by gillispie on 3/26/2021 11:07:00 AM (view original):
well i dont know about succinctly but i can explain what is going on.

feedback to reduce 'extreme outliers' was built into the engine ~8 years ago, and some post somewhere by seble i believe states which things it applies to, but it definitely includes shooting on a per player basis and foul committing on a per player basis, i believe there's about 5 things total. they may all operate at a player level; i don't recall. major team level stuff like team shooting, team rebounds - are NOT impacted.

basically, to avoid highly unlikely outcomes, and to reduce complaining about 'unrealistic' outcomes, seble put feedback on these items. so if a player misses their first 8 shots, they are pretty likely to make that 9th, more than they'd normally be.

feedback takes a little while to kick in for each item, but in general, feedback is 'engaged' for much of the game, there's nothing special about the last 5 minutes except that the effect of feedback is based on deviation from norm, and the more events that have happened, the bigger room for deviation. feedback won't act on too small a sample size.

basically, we simplify in our thinking about feedback by thinking things like 'if you should be even and are up 15 with 5m, feedback is probably kicking you pretty hard by the end'. that isn't how it actually works; its really a lot of small feedbacks on small items. however, its probably reasonable to think about it on a game level, just be aware its not really how it works. on the flip side, if a favorite team is up 5 when they should be up 20, they are less likely to get upset late, not more. so its not just like a general upset or comeback function; its just pushing for reversion to the mean, to the norm.

its a pretty controversial thing, for a number of reasons...

three big changes happened game play wise from my standpoint. first, the favorite wins more. if you are regularly upset that you got upset, you aren't coaching as well as you are thinking you are. its definitely significantly easier today for favorites to win titles than it was previously. also, individual shooters taking lead roles in the offense was always good, but because feedback works on a per-player level, higher end teams reap an additional theoretical volatility-based benefit from using higher scorers when possible. a big one for me was the per-player foul feedback, it means the 3rd and 4th fouls are definitely less likely to come - which helps press teams (many things were done to hurt press teams around the same time). i saw a significant reduction in early foul outs on my press teams after. also note this means the aggressive setting (leave in longer maybe it is called now?) on the distro page is even more attractive; if you still aren't using that as a default for every player on every team, you should.

i guess when i say big changes... those are ones i felt were pretty noticeable. i don't really know how any of that affects the planning of the average HD coach. i just figured it would be good to talk about the practical impacts of the feedback changes to help folks wrap their head around what feedback even means, i guess. i think the extent of what most people notice is the last 5m seems crazy sometimes, but frankly people used to talk about weird game outcomes at least as much, probably more.

A lot of these issues are kind of cosmetic, although I would argue that per-player foul feedback is the only thing that affects game-planning (making fb/press better and the "leave in longer" foul setting very powerful.

I've said this before in the discord server, but what's the last time you've seen a player go 3-3 from 3 against a roughly equal opponent? 4-5? What's the last time you've seen someone go 5-5 from the field against an even opponent? It's ridiculously rare. I don't think this affects game results though, since I think most people would agree the sim engine is pretty well calibrated from a macro-level (with Team As level and Team Bs total level the deviation in results has always felt completely right to me).