I'm D1, B-, "very high", 75% on a recruit. On the FIRST round of hiring, the recruit is signed by a D1, D, "high", 25% opponent. Seems unfair to me. Even if they choose the 25%er you would think it would be in a later round. I stink at this game anyhow and things like this have me paying to be more frustrated. No more.

Hate to be that person, but not really sure what the grip is. They stretch the odds so you had a better than 75% chance of winning. It just didn’t come up in your favor. That’s a bummer but part of the game (and clearly better than the 2.0 system which was just an auction). It’s better he signed early, gives you more time to adjust. If you want to he sure you get him, knock the other coach to moderate.

Other way around Texas. He really had a 75% of winning the roll but only "outspent" the other coach by like 67-33 ish.

Posted by mullycj on 6/8/2021 11:21:00 AM (view original):
Other way around Texas. He really had a 75% of winning the roll but only "outspent" the other coach by like 67-33 ish.

+1, the stretch is baked into the listed %

Posted by texashick on 6/8/2021 10:35:00 AM (view original):
Hate to be that person, but not really sure what the grip is. They stretch the odds so you had a better than 75% chance of winning. It just didn’t come up in your favor. That’s a bummer but part of the game (and clearly better than the 2.0 system which was just an auction). It’s better he signed early, gives you more time to adjust. If you want to he sure you get him, knock the other coach to moderate.

I think the issue, at least in my eyes isn't that it happened. it's how frequent it happens. I'm 1 for 14 on recruits in which I have 50% or higher odds to win (most above 60%). It's downright frustrating. Feels like Baseline Prestige trumps all the recruiting Prefs. I don't expect to win all of them, or even 60% of them, but my odds should be better than 7% of the time.

Something feels broken in the rolls. My 2 cents.

Posted by Stormfury on 6/8/2021 12:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by texashick on 6/8/2021 10:35:00 AM (view original):
Hate to be that person, but not really sure what the grip is. They stretch the odds so you had a better than 75% chance of winning. It just didn’t come up in your favor. That’s a bummer but part of the game (and clearly better than the 2.0 system which was just an auction). It’s better he signed early, gives you more time to adjust. If you want to he sure you get him, knock the other coach to moderate.

I think the issue, at least in my eyes isn't that it happened. it's how frequent it happens. I'm 1 for 14 on recruits in which I have 50% or higher odds to win (most above 60%). It's downright frustrating. Feels like Baseline Prestige trumps all the recruiting Prefs. I don't expect to win all of them, or even 60% of them, but my odds should be better than 7% of the time.

Something feels broken in the rolls. My 2 cents.

Results go up and down, and tend to even out if given a large enough sample size. It was frustrating last season at Wisconsin to lose all my rolls in a year when I had 6 scholarships, but that’s life. So I ended up with 2 walkons, 3 “program guys” I didn’t have to battle for, and kept the senior redshirt that I probably would have just let walk had I gotten the class I wanted. We’ll do ok (this year - IF I stick around, next year and beyond is a whole different conversation, of course).

Posted by gillispie on 6/8/2021 12:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 6/8/2021 11:21:00 AM (view original):
Other way around Texas. He really had a 75% of winning the roll but only "outspent" the other coach by like 67-33 ish.

+1, the stretch is baked into the listed %

The way I look at it, the stretch means that the final odds aren’t indicative of how much you actually outspent your opponent. So losing a 75-25 looks more lopsided than the battle, in terms of actual effort credit expended, really was. That may have been what Tex meant, even if the wording was a little confusing.

Posted by moreron on 6/8/2021 9:26:00 AM (view original):
I'm D1, B-, "very high", 75% on a recruit. On the FIRST round of hiring, the recruit is signed by a D1, D, "high", 25% opponent. Seems unfair to me. Even if they choose the 25%er you would think it would be in a later round. I stink at this game anyhow and things like this have me paying to be more frustrated. No more.

The % are the actual chances of you signing the recruit. When a recruit signs is predetermined based on the signing preference and separate from the odds.

So basically this recruit was signing in the first cycle no matter the odds (100-0, 75-25, 50-50), and you would have signed him 3 out of 4 times, but this was the 4th. Hope this helps!

one could design a system where the margin in the considering probability between VH and H contenders had an effect on when players sign. That is not the current system.

New to D1, what are these percentages you speak of? We talking Actual WIS calculations, or user generated estimates?

Posted by chuckster on 6/8/2021 10:45:00 PM (view original):
New to D1, what are these percentages you speak of? We talking Actual WIS calculations, or user generated estimates?

When a player has 2 or more coaches at High or Very High on the cycle that he signs, the decision comes down to what we call a dice roll, or coin flip. All effort from start to finish is calculated based on effort, prestige, and preferences, and then percentage odds are created. Then the player chooses a school. The percentages are shown on the players recruiting tab, directly to the right of where it shows if you are listed at high or very high. (If there is only one school listed at high or very high at the time of signing, there are no odds and you won the recruit outright)

To the OP, with hundreds of profiles involved in recruiting, at any given time there are coaches that are on hot streaks and coaches that are on cold streaks. It's just going to happen that way. At times you may experience consecutive losses at a high rate. Storm Stormfury is in the midst of a bad streak. I went thru a period where I once won 6 rolls and lost 44 (my goodness!) before I started getting on a winning track. Things will turn. I win rolls very often now. Stormfury will too. Just stay consistent and keep trying to lead. When you're losing rolls, it's magnified 100 times more in your own eyes. It pushed me to the brink and I considered leaving. But the bad streaks will end eventually.

one note - the percentage appears only after the players signs - and is visible only to those who were H or VH - you only see the cards if you were in the game

Got it never noticed it. Thanks

I don't particularly object to my opponent winning the "roll" but I do object that the roll occurred on round 1 of the signing period. The player's preference is "early" as are several other of my recruits who did not sign until later rounds and one who still hasn't signed. The one I lost is the only one with both a "high" and "very high" on him. Seems to me this would be the last one to sign since competition is still going on. Of course if I had won the roll, I wouldn't be complaining at all !

Posted by moreron on 6/9/2021 12:38:00 PM (view original):
I don't particularly object to my opponent winning the "roll" but I do object that the roll occurred on round 1 of the signing period. The player's preference is "early" as are several other of my recruits who did not sign until later rounds and one who still hasn't signed. The one I lost is the only one with both a "high" and "very high" on him. Seems to me this would be the last one to sign since competition is still going on. Of course if I had won the roll, I wouldn't be complaining at all !

What’s really wild are the “whenever” tendency guys who sign on the first cycle... which happened to me in the last couple seasons somewhere. And a year later, another whenever guy waited until the last 24 hours, after D3 teams could start signing, and I almost lost him on a roll (I had invested nothing but AP and a scholarship, so I would have deserved the loss, but I was sweating). Singing tendency is a really important strategy piece to pay attention to in HD, and understanding the variability within the groups is a big piece of that.