At the risk of looking like a complete idiot by the end of the season, I wanted to document my thoughts regarding thejuice6's round 2 draft. Others may want to join in and add their comments. Since I have a number of teams, I will list each team in a separate post.

I want to give kudos to thejuice6 for coming up with a really unique and challenging theme idea. Adding the wrinkle of choosing your draft slot was a great idea. I just wish I would have been a bit smarter and chosen a lower first round draft slot more frequently than I did. I have a feeling that those people drafting in the 7 thru 12 spots will end up doing quite well.

American League - League #4
Draft Choice: #1
Draft Slot: #1
Round 1: 1961 Yankees / Tigers hitting (1st hitting team taken)
Round 2: 1961 Orioles / Tigers pitching (last pitching team taken)

Comments:
I am starting with this league because I had the #1 overall pick to choose which league I wanted. Of course, that meant I needed to research all the choices in all the leagues, which was very time consuming. I came to the determination that this hitting combo exceeded the league average by a far greater percentage than almost every other hitting or pitching group among the 16 leagues.

Mantle, Cash & Kaline are ranked #1, #2 and #5 among most expensive hitters in this 15-year era. Sorted by OPS#, Cash, Mantle, Maris and Colavito are all top 11 hitters. Sadly, there was no stud (big-inning) starting pitcher to use with this group. I decided to go with 170-inning Dick Donovan as my free agent. He will be used out of the bullpen with some starts here and there. The 1961 pitching group was pretty even with 1973 and 1974 which were the two pitching years that went right before me (and clearly better than '62, '65 & '71 which didn't get selected). I would've probably been tempted to take '73 or '74 if available, and used a free agent Rod Carew hitting season at 2B to replace my .258-hitting Jake Wood. I'm sure Dick Donovan was probably the smarter choice though.

Prediction:
Despite all the great pitching in this era, I have to believe this hitting will be enough to offset my weaker-than-average pitching. I should have two or three guys finish among the top 5 MVP leaders. Predicted record: 93-69.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 42-39 .519 (2nd place, 1 game out of first, and 1 game ahead in wildcard)
Offense Rank: 2nd in AL (5.1 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 10th in AL (5.1 runs per game)
Defense: .983 Field% (league avg .983), Plus/Minus plays = 38/10 (league avg 25/20)
1-Run Games: 10-11
Exp Win%: .496
Free agent (real life stats): Dick Donovon (170 ip, .224 oav, 1.03 whip in real life)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 38 games, solely as a RP, 7-2, 7 saves, 83 ip, .276 oav, 3.36 ERA

Comments: After slow starts, Mantle, Cash, Kaline, E.Howard have been really good. Rocky Colavito (.982 ops in real life) has been pretty bad (.754). I already have known terrible hitters with middle infielders T.Kubek (.546 ops) and J.Wood (.568). With below average pitching, the margin of error is very slim and in order to justify the #1 overall pick, Colavito needs to start hitting. On the pitching side, 3 of my 4 SP have ERAs in the mid 5's. I need to get Hal Brown into more games. He has 167 real life ips (1.12 whip) and has only pitched 14 ips for me (1.32 era). Grade: C

American League - League #7
Draft Choice: #1
Draft Slot: #3
Round 1: 1918 Senators / Red Sox pitching (3rd pitching team taken)
Round 2: 1926 Yankees / Senators hitting (10th hitting team taken)

Comments:
This league was the second league I selected with one of my four "Top 16" picks. If League 1 AL was still available, I may have selected that instead, but Jtpsops chose that league with pick #2 overall (an excellent choice). With the mixed deadball / liveball eras, I wanted to get one of the four deadball pitching combos while giving myself a shot at one of the stud Babe Ruth hitting seasons. I also assumed I would be using a hitting free agent. The best choices were 1916, 1917 & 1918. I probably should've considered 1919 as well but figured that free agent would be '19 Ruth and that would've shut me out to one Ruth's 1920's seasons. So I selected draft slot #3. I didn't see that much difference in pitching between 1916, 1917, 1918.

Well, not surprisingly, 1917 and 1916 went off the board 1st and 2nd. I grabbed 1918 very quickly. I was happy to get a stud Walter Johnson and I love Carl Mays especially since he can also hit and there's no DH. A $9.97 million '18 Ty Cobb will be a nice free agent to add to a potentially potent offense. When the hitting groups came back around to me, I was one pick away from getting 1923, which was significantly better than the other choices. But Chisock not surprisingly took 1923. Damn. Maybe I should have taken fourth pick and settled for 1919. I wasn't going to take one of the four deadball seasons left so my choices were essentially 1924 and 1926. Despite not having Gehrig, I liked 1924 better, but the problem was this season included a decent Cobb season. The only other 1918 free agent hitter I would consider was Tris Speaker but he is currently part of the 1918 hitting group which hasn't been drafted yet. Do I gamble and take 1924, hoping that 1918 doesn't get selected? Nope - I decide to go with 1926. They have great hitting but the defense is horrific. So bad in fact, that I am playing Cobb at 3B (he is rated D/D) and it's basically not much of a downgrade to my other 3B choice (C-/D). As it turns out, two deadball hitting seasons got selected (including 1918). 1924 was untouched, which means I could've probably picked first or second and been better off.

Prediction:
I guess we'll really see how much defense matters. Great deadball pitching with lots of errors isn't a formula for winning. I should be able to score lots of runs, but will also give up lots of unearned runs. I had high hopes for this team going into the draft, but have a feeling I will be disappointed. Predicted record: 88-74

Mid-Season Update

Record: 48-33 .593 (1st place, 3 games ahead, currently #1 seed in AL)
Offense Rank: 6th in AL (6.1 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 3rd in AL (5.3 runs per game)
Defense: .971 Field% (league avg .975), Plus/Minus plays = 20/21 (league avg 39/20)
1-Run Games: 14-11
Exp Win%: .576
Free agent (real life stats): Ty Cobb (.382 / .440 / .515 in real life)
Free Agent Sim Stats: .354 / .400 / .424

Comments: As expected, the defense is near the bottom of the league. On offense, my four most expensive hitters (Ruth, Cobb, Goslin & Gehrig) are all hitting well. The rest of the offense is pretty "meh". I guess that's why this 1926 hitting group was still there as the 10th hitting group on the board. The 1918 pitching group has two good pitchers (W.Johnson and C.Mays) and they are performing to expectations (combined 22-13 with ERA's in the 3's). I used the team's third best SP (Harry Hooper) out of the pen to start the season, but Sam Jones was so bad as a SP3 that I switched it up and moved Hooper to the rotation. That leaves me no bullpen, which of course leads to way too many blown multi-run leads in the 8th and 9th. Despite the porous defense and terrible bullpen, this team is still on a pace to win 96 games. Grade: A

National League - League #8
Draft Choice: #2
Draft Slot: #1
Round 1: 1903 Pirates / Reds hitting (1st hitting team taken)
Round 2: 1913 Giants / Dodgers pitching (12th pitching team taken)

Comments:
This was my third "Top-15" pick. Similar to my AL #4 - 1961 hitting selection, I decided to take the best hitting option in a very strong pitching era. Interestingly, pedrocerrano had the first draft choice in this league, but chose to pick #3. He ended up taking the second hitting combo (1901), but I wonder if that was his initial intention when he picked this league.

When I first selected this league and draft slot selection, I actually had two teams in mind, 1903 & 1901. I liked 1903 a little better and this year came with a solid 335-inning Deacon Phillippe (1.03 whip) as my free agent. I know this era has some really awesome pitching and for a moment right before it was my turn to draft a group, I considered choosing one the great pitching years that included Honus Wagner as a free agent. But Honus + terrible offense is still a slightly less terrible offense. With my pitching selection, my aggregate numbers show that 1915 pitching is slightly better than the 1913 combo that I selected. But a closer examination shows that this is all based on Pete Alexander's stud season. All the other pitchers on this combo are pretty bad. It was really hard to turn down a lock Cy Young winner, but I think I'd rather have the balance.

Prediction:
I feel good about this team. Reasonably decent pitching (given that I picked last) plus the league's best offense + very strong defense. I have a feeling that (division-mate) pedrocerrano and I will be battling it out for the best record in the league. Predicted record: 99-63.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 44-37 .543 (tied for 3rd/4th place, 9 games out of 1st, 2 games out of wildcard)
Offense Rank: 7th in NL (4.5 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 6th in NL (4.2 runs per game)
Defense: .963 Field% (league avg .966), Plus/Minus plays = 53/19 (league avg 42/18)
1-Run Games: 13-12
Exp Win%: .534
Free agent (real life stats): Deacon Phillippe (335 ip, .241 oav, 1.03 whip in real life)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 26 starts, 10-7, 182 ip, .274 oav, 1.23 whip, 3.56 ERA

Comments: I was really high on this team, but they have been a disappointment. Sure, 44 wins is decent, but ranking only 7th (out of 12) in offense while being the first offense taken is extremely bothersome. My lineup is littered with .340 and .350 hitters but apparently all those great pitchers in this league have neutralized my offense. My pitching has been fine. What's worse is that my 2nd choice, 1901 hitting, was taken by pedrocerrano and his team has won 53 games. And to make things really tough, the other two teams in my league are also very strong. So we might win 90 games and still fail to advance to the playoffs. Grade: B-

American League - League #5
Draft Choice: #1
Draft Slot: #1
Round 1: 1946 Tigers / Red Sox hitting (1st hitting team taken)
Round 2: 1953 White Sox / Red Sox pitching (12th pitching team taken)

Comments:
This was my fourth "Top-15" pick. There aren't many leagues left to choose from. I strongly considered AL #8 but I knew I would want to be selecting 3rd or 4th in that league, so no real urgency to grab that now since I will have a number of high picks. You've probably figured out by now that my main focus is finding good hitting teams (with strong fielding) that also has a stud free agent starting pitcher, especially in a league where there isn't much difference between the 7th and 12th best pitching groups.

To be honest, I didn't have a specific team in mind when I choose pick #1. It was nearing the end of the Top-15 draft and I just wanted to get this done so we could get the main draft started. There was one clear pitching group (1954, which went 3rd to ybjsports). But in my opinion, they didn't separate enough from the rest of the pitching combos. A quick search of the best SP's from this 15-year era and 1946 Bob Feller and his 391 innings jumps out. This 1946 group isn't the best hitting of the era, but it's above average and it comes with decent defense. And did I mention Bob Feller? Anything I get from my actual pitching combo is gravy.

During my initial research, I highlight the three worst pitching combos (for each league) and start reviewing the 4th worst, 5th worst, etc. to see if I "can live" with the pitching from those groups. Usually, the draft results bear this out and the three pitching combos I highlighted end up not getting selected. But once in a while, one or even two of the three worst pitching groups get selected. This was one of those instances. I was very happy that 1953 made it to me with the last pick. I had them ranked in the 7th-8th range, so combining that fact with Feller + decent defense, this could be a top 6 pitching group.

Prediction:
It's always hard to project strong offense / bad pitching leagues. With lots of runs comes lots of variance. My best RPs have whips in the 1.14 - 1.15 range but all my pitchers have relatively low OAV. I have to think that will only help me to win some close games. Predicted record: 90-72.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 43-38 .531 (4th place, 6 games out of 1st, 2 games out of wildcard)
Offense Rank: 4th in AL (5.5 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 4th in AL (4.8 runs per game)
Defense: .987 Field% (league avg .985), Plus/Minus plays = 25/17 (league avg 30/15)
1-Run Games: 10-7
Exp Win%: .560
Free agent (real life stats): Bpb Feller (391 ip, .208 oav, 1.16 whip in real life)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 28 starts, 13-10, 185 ip, .232 oav, 1.47 whip, 3.69 ERA

Comments: Considered that I drafted the first offensive group and the last pitching group, I am thrilled to be ranked 4th in the AL in pitching. Obviously, free agent Bob Feller is a big part of that. SP2 Billy Pierce (5.79 sim era) has been pretty bad, mostly due to allowing 26 HRs in 146 ips. SP3 Mel Parnell (6.31 ERA) is even worse. Somehow, the mediocre pitchers coming out of the pen have been relatively competent. I have changed the "call bullpen" setting on Pierce and Parnell to 4 so I can minimize the damage they do. Overall, this team is about what I expected. Of course, the division alignment screws me again. Grade: B

American League - League #3
Draft Choice: #1
Draft Slot: #4
Round 1: 1978 Brewers / Red Sox hitting (2nd hitting team taken)
Round 2: 1980 Yankees / Twins pitching (11th pitching team taken)

Comments:
I wish I had spent a little more time analyzing this league. My mindset was so ingrained on getting a good hitting group with a good SP that I never considered the possibility of picking way lower than I did. As it was, I did drop down to draft slot #4 with the top choice. But that still wasn't enough. I had a number of hitting groups I would've been happy to take, including 1982, 1987, 1976 and the combo I selected, 1978 (one pick after 1982 was selected). Looking at all the A.L. teams, post-draft, there are a number of rosters that I would rather have than the roster I ended up with, including my brother's combo (1989P & 1976H). I think this '78 hitting combo is in middle of the pack for scoring runs, but it has very good defense and it enabled me to get a top 10 SP with Mike Caldwell. This '80's pitching staff has a number of 100+ inning non-SPs that are all better than the crappy SPs. So if I don't get down 7-2 early, I do have a shot at winning some games late. This pitching staff should be among the league leaders in fewest HRs allowed but at the expense of a high OAV. In retrospect, I should have simply taken that dominant 1981 pitching staff.

Prediction:
If any of my teams fail to advance to round 3, this will be the one. We're hoping many of the other A.L. teams are as bad as my team looks. To be honest, I would take .500 right now, if you offered it to me. Predicted record 77-85.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 42-39 .519 (2nd place, 8 games out of 1st, 3 games ahead in the wildcard race)
Offense Rank: 5th in AL (5.1 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 4th in AL (4.8 runs per game)
Defense: .985 Field% (league avg .984), Plus/Minus plays = 45/1 (league avg 28/22)
1-Run Games: 8-9
Exp Win%: .533
Free agent (real life stats): Mike Caldwell (294 ip, .234 oav, 1.06 whip in real life)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 22 starts, 12-6, 167 ip, .249 oav, 1.17 whip, 2.91 ERA - Leading league in ERA

Comments: I selected this 1980 pitching group because of the strength of their bullpen (all the starting pitchers suck). But in the rare occasion when my crappy SP has a lead, the bullpen blows it. That being said, I have completely under-utilized my big innings RPs. Rudy May ahs only used 49 of his 176 IPs. Doug Corbett has only used 60 of his 138 IPs. And Ron Davis 40 of his 131 IPs. In the second half, I will be pulling John, Koosman and Erickson much more quickly. Offensively, most batters are about where I'd expect. The one exception is Jim Rice. He is currently in the MVP lead, with a slash line of .309 / .348 / .589 with 27 HRs and 70 RBIs. I love the defense of this team (45 plus plays, only 1 minus play). Grade: B+

National League - League #5
Draft Choice: #2
Draft Slot: #2
Round 1: 1951 Dodgers / Giants hitting (1st hitting team taken)
Round 2: 1960 Dodgers / Cardinals pitching (12th pitching team taken)

Comments:
League 5N was the very last league to be selected. calhoop selected draft slot #1. For no apparent reason, I selected draft slot #2. I had 1950 and 1952 as the top two pitching seasons (with an aggregate ERC# around 0.30 to 0.40 better than all the other pitching groups). calhoop selected 1950 with the top pick. It made logical sense for me to select 1952, so of I course I went hitting instead. Seeing that 1951 Robin Roberts (1.10 whip) was available as a free agent, I went with the 1951 hitting group. Following the same recipe of solid hitting + good defense, I figured I could cut that gap in ERC# with 332 innings of Roberts. The downside of my offense is that it is very right-handed hitting heavy. I have only one lefty in the lineup (and three on the entire roster).

With the last pick at pitcher, I got a decent staff of 1960 Dodgers / Cardinals (not the fourth worst in my opinion) which includes a very solid Don Drysdale season (1.06 whip) and very good reliever in Lindy McDaniel (0.94 whip). The rest of the staff is garbage though. I will lead the league in HRs allowed but with a low OAV. Maybe I should not have overthunk it and simply gone with 1952 pitching like most would have done. By the way, Jtpsops grabbed 1952 pitching with pick #3 and was probably thrilled about it. Oh well.

Prediction:
I keep telling myself that it's ok if a few of my teams stink. It will make my life easier going into the round 3 if some of my teams don't advance. I don't have much confidence in this team. Somehow I missed the lefty/right hitting imbalance when I selected this group. We will crush lefty starters though. Predicted record: 82-80.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 44-37 .543 (2nd place, 2 games out of 1st, 3 games ahead in the wildcard race)
Offense Rank: 1st in NL (5.7 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 4th in NL (5.2 runs per game)
Defense: .984 Field% (league avg .985), Plus/Minus plays = 29/12 (league avg 30/15)
1-Run Games: 12-11
Exp Win%: .548
Free agent (real life stats): Robin Roberts (332 ip, .237 oav, 1.10 whip in real life)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 27 starts, 7-9, 176 ip, .261 oav, 1.31 whip, 4.64 ERA

Comments: We were second-to-last to grab a pitching group, and this team is ranked 4th in the NL in pitching, DESPITE the fact that my stud free agent pitcher (Robin Roberts) has a sim ERA roughly the same as my team's overall ERA. It makes no sense that one of the best pitchers in this era, with the best offense behind him is only 7-9. It wouldn't shock me if Roberts starts pitching better, but the other guys start pitching worse. No complaints on the offense, especially given the right-handed heavy nature. Grade: B

American League - League #2
Draft Choice: #2
Draft Slot: #3
Round 1: 1994 Yankees / Indians hitting (1st hitting team taken)
Round 2: 1992 Red Sox / Brewers pitching (12th pitching team taken)

Comments:
This league was one of many examples where I simply misjudged how others were thinking. None of the pitching groups really jumped out at me as must-haves so I figured I would go hitting. I assumed others thought the same thing. I had 3 really strong hitting teams that I liked equally so I decided to pick 3rd overall, figuring I'd get one of the three and get a better pitching group coming back. Of course, the top two selections were pitching groups. So now I'm going to be last in pitching.... again. Now I had to decide on which of the three hitting combinations I liked the best. I went back and forth before finally deciding that I just couldn't pass up Belle, O'Neill, Lofton, Boggs, B.Williams, etc. and went with 1994 even though the FA pitcher (Clemens) wasn't as strong as my other choices.

When it came back to me for pitching, it was a close call between 1994 and 1992. Since I could upgrade my free agent from '94 Clemens to '94 Cone (since 1994 pitching would go unclaimed) I went with 1992 Boston/Milwaukee - and still got a strong Clemens season. It really ****** me off that calhoop, picking 5th overall, was able to grab the 4th pitching group and still got my third choice for hitting (1993) that late in round 2.

Prediction:
My 1994 team will score some runs for sure (will probably lead the league in scoring). I've got great fielding everywhere so hopefully that helps my pitching staff. I have two decent SPs ('94 Cone and '92 Clemens) and two decent RPs (Eldred and Fetters) and that's about it. I don't have any of those Pedro stud seasons. If I'm smart (and have the time, and remember), I need to maneuver my pitching rotation so that my worst SP (Frank Viola) always starts against Pedro and just give up those games and hope I can win (or at least be competitive) the other 75% of the games. Predicted record: 90-72 but in second place in the AL West behind calhoop's 100-win 99P/93H team.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 45-36 .556 (1st place, 3 games ahead, currently #1 seed in AL)
Offense Rank: 6th in AL (5.4 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 2nd in AL (5.0 runs per game)
Defense: .989 Field% (league avg .987), Plus/Minus plays = 41/6 (league avg 22/20)
1-Run Games: 11-9
Exp Win%: .538
Free agent (real life stats): David Cone (242 ip, .209 oav, 1.07 whip in real life)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 21 starts, 6-11, 121 ip, .246 oav, 1.34 whip, 6.08 ERA

Comments: Reading the stats above, how can you not scratch your head in confusion. This was the 1st hitting group selected and the 12th and final pitching group selected in this league. Yet, we are ranked 6th in runs scored and 2nd in fewest runs allowed. All this DESPITE my free agent pitcher, David Cone being the worst pitcher on the team. It makes no sense. Clearly, being one of the best defensive units in the league helps the pitching. But how can David Cone suck way worse than Frank Viola and Jaime Navarro is a question that will stump scholars for years. On offense, the biggest flop has been Mike Stanley (.929 OPS in real life vs .626 OPS in sim). All that being said, we are on pace for my prediction of 90 wins. Grade: B+

American League - League #2
Draft Choice: #6
Draft Slot: #6
Round 1: 1995 Indians / Angles hitting (2nd hitting team taken)
Round 2: 2005 White Sox / Twins pitching (11th pitching team taken)

Comments:
This league was one of four leagues I have two teams in. After I picked the 1994 hitting group with my first team in this league, there were two people to pick before this team's turn and I was hoping either '95 or '93 hitting would get to me. Of course, both people picked pitching. Now I am starting to doubt my strategy. Why am I the only person who seems to value hitting combos over pitching combos? Well, I'm in this deep - might as well put all my chips in the middle. Decided on 1995 due to stud FA pitcher Randy Johnson. The big downside to this hitting group is at catcher where I have to use three roster spots for guys with .300 OBP. Excluding the C and SS, the other 7 batting spots have a combined 215 HRs. Oh, and I have four switch-hitters in the lineup - which you all know I love.

Sadly, picking 6th overall was really no different than picking 2nd overall, because I still get the 11th choice at pitching. As a White Sox fan, I'm happy with the 2005 Chi/Min group. I had this group rated as slightly below average so pretty happy about this with the 11th choice.

Prediction:
The defense on this team isn't as good as my 1994 team, but I think the hitting is just as good (if ignoring C and SS). Before i made this pick, I checked with thejuice6 and he said he would not put my '94 and '95 teams into the same division, so I would expect this team to get bumped into the A.L. Central. I am mostly optimistic about this team, so I will probably error on the high side. Predicted record: 91-71.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 39-42 .481 (2nd place, 2 games out of 1st, 3 games out of a wildcard spot)
Offense Rank: 9th in AL (5.2 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 3rd in AL (5.0 runs per game)
Defense: .985 Field% (league avg .987), Plus/Minus plays = 33/11 (league avg 22/20)
1-Run Games: 8-10
Exp Win%: .512
Free agent (real life stats): Randy Johnson (240 ip, .201 oav, 1.05 whip in real life)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 20 starts, 12-3, 130 ip, .259 oav, 1.32 whip, 3.74 ERA

Comments: Unlike my '1994 Cone' team, this is what I would expect from a stud free agent pitcher. Too bad it's wasted on a below-500 team. This is my second team in League #2 and just like my other team, their hitting/pitching ranks don't make sense based on where they were drafted. Without looking, I would've assumed that most teams used their free agent on hitting. But in reality, 11 of the 12 A.L. teams added a free agent pitcher. So I guess the conclusion is that I am bad at evaluating hitting and everybody else is bad at evaluation pitching. Grade: C-

American League - League #1
Draft Choice: #3
Draft Slot: #3
Round 1: 2009 Yankees / Angles hitting (1st hitting team taken)
Round 2: 2009 White Sox / Mariners pitching (12th pitching team taken)

Comments:
When I first started researching, my very first thought was that I need a top-two pick in this league. There were two strong pitching combos (2019 & 2020). But as I started putting in more research, I discovered something unique to League 1 - most of the great pitching numbers are due to lots of low-inning RPs (especially in the late 2010's). In order to get to 1400 innings, I'd need to roster 13 pitchers (or decrease the quality of pitchers selected). And there were a bunch of hitters that didn't have full seasons so with the DH requirement, there was going to be an issue with not enough roster spots to get the required PA and IP. To combat that, I either needed to draft a combo with four 200+ IP starters or an offense with 9 full-time players (or close to it) with a stud SP w/200+ IPs. For that reason, I was not going to take 2020 pitching. So assuming 2019 pitching was off the board before my turn, I was probably going to take hitting AND I wanted a hitting group that came with a great pitcher with lots of innings. I strong considered 2011 hitting w/Verlander. But 2009 was slightly better and came with KC's Zack Greinke. I decided to pick #3 figuring 2019 pitching and one of these two hitting groups would get taken. I ended up taking 2009 hitting with pick #3. As it turns out, pitching went off the board with picks 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. Hmmm. Maybe I miscalculated the importance of pitching. I guess I should have dropped down in the order. What kills me is that 2011 went at pick #11 (3rd hitting group taken). Damn!

Anyway, the 2009 hitting group gives me six switch hitters, solid defense and a low-HR '09 Greinke season (229 IPs). The pitching that made it back to me wasn't great. I went with 2014 which really wasn't much different than the three seasons I passed on. I'm really ticked at myself for mis-judging this league's draft.

Prediction:
Pain (old Rocky reference). I actually had to look up the rule to see if there were injuries. If not, I might have shorted myself innings and picked a pitching group first. But there are injuries, so this team's best hope is if one or more teams have fatigue issues due to not drafting enough IPs. Predicted Record: 75-87.

Mid-Season Update

Record: 39-42 .481 (2nd place, 1 games out of 1st, 4 games out of a wildcard spot)
Offense Rank: 11th in AL (4.6 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 4th in AL (4.9 runs per game)
Defense: .994 Field% (league avg .990), Plus/Minus plays = 10/10 (league avg 20/22)
1-Run Games: 10-12
Exp Win%: .475
Free agent (real life stats): Zack Greinke (229 ip, .230 oav, 1.07 whip in real life)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 20 starts, 5-12, 122 ip, .254 oav, 1.33 whip, 4.44 ERA

Comments: 1st hitting group taken, ranked 11th (out of 12) in runs scored. Just a brilliant pick by me. Plus, I am getting a crappy season from my free agent pitcher. All in all, an utter disaster of a pick. Jeter and Cano are badly underperforming (200 pts below their real life OPS). Funny thing is... this team is on a pace to exceed my expectation of 75 wins. Not going to waste any more time on this. Grade: C-

National League - League #7
Draft Choice: #3
Draft Slot: #5
Round 1: 1916 Robins / Phillies pitching (5th pitching team taken)
Round 2: 1921 Giants / Cardinals hitting (8th hitting team taken)

Comments:
This draft was weird. Draft slots #1 and #4 were taken and since I didn't really like the deadball pitching groups all that much, I figured I'd drop down to draft slot #5 and just grab 1924 hitting which I wanted because of Dazzy Vance. Heck, Dazzy is as good as any of the deadball pitchers anyway. What threw me for a loop was rswift30 taking 1923 pitching at pick #3. So by the time I was up, three of the four deadball pitching years were taken plus 1923 pitching. Now, my choice is 1924 hitting or 1916 pitching with the added bonus of getting to pick a hitting group before 4 other teams. Despite not really liking any 1916 hitting free agents, I went with the pitching group just on principle. pedrocerrano picked right after me and he took another pitching group, which was surprising. We even exchanged site-mails where I told him my other choice was 1924 hitting w/Vance.

Fast forward to round 2. It's late at night and 1924 hitting is still on the board with only pedrocerrano picking in front of me. I'm screwed. He knows I want 1924. There is no way he passes on adding '24 Vance even though the 1921 hitting is better. I really want Vance. I really need Vance. I wake up the next morning and before I even get out of bed, I check my tablet and see pedrocerrano's post... "1924 Hitting - New York Giants / St. Louis Cardinals". F*ck!

Well, I go with a very solid 1921 group with one my favorite Hornsby seasons ($12M, can play 3B), along with $7M+ switch-hitters Frisch (2B, A+) and Bancroft (SS, A+). I guess that's a nice consolation prize.

The bonus prize comes later when specsman selects the last hitting season, 1930. This means the 1921 pitching season goes undrafted, and allows me to add free agent 1921 Babe Adams (170 IPs, 1.08 whip) who is one of the better pitchers of this era. Feeling a lot better now.

Prediction:
This was one of the few drafts where I had only one team and also picked this low in the first round. The draft didn't go as I anticipated but t I think it turned out ok. My team isn't as good as pedrocerrano's team, but I think it's a playoff team. Predicted record: 93-69

Mid-Season Update

Record: 49-32 .605 (1st place, 4 games ahead, tied for #1 seed in NL)
Offense Rank: 3rd in NL (5.6 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 4th in NL (4.7 runs per game)
Defense: .979 Field% (league avg .975), Plus/Minus plays = 47/14 (league avg 39/20)
1-Run Games: 12-11
Exp Win%: .590
Free agent (real life stats): Babe Adams (170 ip, .251 oav, 1.08 whip in real life)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 32 games, 3-4, saves, 31 ip, .315 oav, 1.37 whip, 4.31 ERA

Comments: Not sure why I haven't used Babe Adams more frequently. He's as good as any other pitcher I have in the bullpen. O know he was blowing a bunch of games early in the season and his ERA ballooned to a high of 16.20 (after 13 games). But he's been markedly better since then. This 1916 pitching is about where I'd expect them to be. What's surprising is that my hitting (8th group taken) is ranked so highly without a free agent hitter. There is some negative regression that's going to hit (i.e., Irish Meusel is currently at .401 / .438 / .555). Still, this team is even exceeding my high expectations. Grade: A

National League - League #1
Draft Choice: #3
Draft Slot: #5
Round 1: 2016 Cubs / Rockies hitting (2nd hitting team taken)
Round 2: 2015 Cardinals / Pirates pitching (11th pitching team taken)

Comments:
The top two pitching combos in this league are 2020 and 2016. Similar to League #1 AL, I wanted to make sure I have multiple 200+ inning SPs or 8-9 full-time batters to alleviate the roster crunch. I was a bit shocked 2020 hitting was taken first (not because of quality, but because the top players didn't have enough PA and would require multiple backups.) I was not surprised when 2016 and 2020 pitching went off the board next. When it was my turn at pick #5, I still had my top two hitting seasons available. I went with 2016 because I love the hitting on this team as well as the awesome infield defense. Oh, and I get to add 2016 Clayton Kershaw, who I heard is pretty good. He will be used as a SP, mostly against my division mates.

The 2015 pitching that I ended up with wasn't the best available, but I liked the nearly 800 innings from it's top 4 SPs (liked the quantity, not the quality) and more importantly, the bullpen is pretty strong, with six pitchers (400 IPs) with a whip of 1.05 or better. The 2010 pitching (which was picked 12th) was slightly better in whip and OAV but had a higher HR rate and was a little light on innings that I wanted to add.

Prediction:
Once again, I went against the grain and was one of the few people to take hitting early. If my theory that above-average-hitting + great defense + below-average-pitching is a better choice than great-pitching with mediocre-hitting and below-average-defense, then this team will be the perfect test case for that theory. Predicted record: 89-73.

Mid-Season Update
(Thru game 84)

Record: 35-48 .422 (4th place, 14 games out of first, 13 out of wildcard)
Offense Rank: 4th in NL (5.2 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 10th in NL (5.4 runs per game)
Defense: .990 Field% (league avg .989), Plus/Minus plays = 37/11 (league avg 21/23)
1-Run Games: 11-14
Exp Win%: .477
Free agent (real life stats): Clayton Kershaw (149 ip, .184 oav, 0.72 whip in real life)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 22 games, 7 starts, 5-2, 1 save, 4 blown saves, 80 ip, .282 oav, 1.23 whip, 3.81 ERA

Comments: What a crapfest this team is. Stud '16 Kershaw has been mediocre. And with only 1424 real life innings on my roster, we've had fatigue problems because nobody can get any outs. Starter Francisco Liriano is 1-11 with a 8.02 ERA. Kevin Siegrist has walked 31 batters in 29 innings (41 games) and has a 7.98 ERA. The hitting has been ok and the defense has been great. But this team has no shot at doing anything other than maybe getting lucky and qualifying for a round 3 team. Oh, did I mention the other three teams in my division have 49, 48 and 47 wins. At least I'm not wasting a good team here. Grade: D

National League - League #1
Draft Choice: #8
Draft Slot: #8
Round 1: 2007 Phillies / Rockies hitting (3rd hitting team taken)
Round 2: 2008 Cubs / Diamondbacks / Pirates pitching (10th pitching team taken)

Comments:
This is my second team in this league. There were two people to select between my first pick (#5) and this pick (#8). In all honesty, I really liked 2007 hitting a smidge better than 2016 hitting. I checked to see who was picking and their preferences and both kstober and mllama54 leaned pitching over hitting (based on their other drafts). It may not have mattered but I thought had either of them chose to take a hitting group, 2016 was more likely to be selected than 2007 due to Kershaw, so I flipped my preference and grabbed 2016 first and was happy when 2007 made it here (both took pitching as expected). The 2007 hitting combo comes with free agent Jake Peavy's best season. This offense is so loaded, Todd Helton is leading off. Due to the rare instance where a team has two strong shortstops, I am playing Jimmy Rollins out of position at 3b (Tulowitzki starting at SS).

The 2008 pitching that I selected doesn't really have any studs, but it's balanced, albeit mediocre. Rich Harden (149-innings) will be my multiple-inning setup guy and Carlos Marmol (0.93 whip, .135 oav) will help close out games. But with my offense, I should always be live for a late inning comeback.

Prediction:
If my "good-hitting, good-defense, bad-pitching" theory is wrong, it's going to be a very disappointing round 2 for me. I don't know if this team is better or worse than my 2016 team. We'll call it a draw. Predicted record: 89-73.

Mid-Season Update
(Thru game 84)

Record: 33-50 .398 (4th place, 16 games out of first, 15 out of wildcard)
Offense Rank: 6th in NL (4.9 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 7th in NL (5.1 runs per game)
Defense: .989 Field% (league avg .989), Plus/Minus plays = 39/9 (league avg 21/23)
1-Run Games: 4-13
Exp Win%: .484
Free agent (real life stats): Jake Peavy (221 ip, .208 oav, 1.06 whip in real life)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 23 games, 19 starts, 4-10, 115 ip, .274 oav, 1.51 whip, 4.79 ERA

Comments: This team should be close to a .500 team but a 4-13 record in 1-run games has been the downfall. Free agent pitcher Jake Peavy is miles better (in real life) than the other starters on the team (Webb, Haren, Dempster, Zambrano) yet he's sucking badly. It really is inexplicable why he is pitching terribly while a bum like Carlos Zambrano is 6-4 with a 2.85 ERA. I have four decent RPs with whips less than 1.10 (in real life) and they all suck. My best RP, Carlos Marmol (.135 oav, 0.93 whip in real life) is currently sitting with a 1.76 sim whip and 9.53 sim ERA in 34 innings. He's appeared in 56 games, so I am not pushing him with pitch count. Every time I look at this team, I just want to puke. Grade: D-

National League - League #4
Draft Choice: #3
Draft Slot: #2
Round 1: 1966 Dodgers / Cardinals pitching (2nd pitching team taken)
Round 2: 1974 Dodgers / Reds hitting (11th hitting team taken)

Comments:
When this league's draft started, I was smack dab in the middle of self-doubt. I had been the only person taking hitting early in almost every draft. Maybe I was wrong. Maybe I am overthinking it too much and should just go with the obvious "best pitching available" pick. All the research I had done for this league was trying to figure out which hitting combo to take first. I had it narrowed down between 1973 (+Seaver), 1972 (+Carlton), 1964 (+Koufax) & 1963 (+Koufax). All excellent choices. But the combination of me being mad at myself for picking draft slot #2 when I could've been happy with a later pick and the aforementioned self-doubt, I relented and selected the second best pitching group. I didn't even check to see what the hitting groups would look like at the end of the draft. I at least figured out that I could probably add a stud Ron Santo season as a hitting free agent, which is what I eventually did.

The hitting group I ended up with is better than I would've imagined. It's a team full of players I watched a lot as a kid. Bench, Garvey, Morgan, Santo, Concepcion, Buckner, Rose, Wynn... all with a combined salary over $50 million.

Prediction:
I see that thejuice6 got a steal when that '64 hitting team that I was looking at lasted all the way to pick 19. Once again, I probably should have picked a lower draft spot. For some reason, I don't have as much confidence in this team as I do with my hitting-first teams. Maybe the pessimism in me sees a lot of 3-2 and 2-1 losses. Predicted record: 86-76.

Mid-Season Update
(Thru game 84)

Record: 54-30 .643 (1st place, 7 games in front, #1 seed in NL)
Offense Rank: 1st in NL (5.2 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 2nd in NL (4.0 runs per game)
Defense: .985 Field% (league avg .983), Plus/Minus plays = 38/13 (league avg 26/21)
1-Run Games: 16-6
Exp Win%: .622
Free agent (real life stats): Ron Santo (.312 / .412 / .538, Defense: B-/A+)
Free Agent Sim Stats: .259 / .341 / .405, 7+ plays, 5 errors

Comments: This is one of the few teams I drafted pitching first. Clearly, it seems to be a better strategy than drafting hitting early. What's really surprising is that this team is ranked first in runs scored in the NL. One might argue that adding a stud hitter helps that ranking, but my free agent, Ron Santo, has been anything but a stud hitter for me. Sure, his defense is good... but .259/.341/.405 is WAY below expectations. Still, the rest of the guys are hitting well enough to overcome a mediocre Santo. On the pitching side, I keep expecting Sandy Koufax to cool off. He is #1 Cy Young with a ridiculous 16-1 record and a top-5-in-the-league 2.28 ERA. Clearly, this team has exceeded my expectations. Grade: A+

National League - League #2
Draft Choice: #4
Draft Slot: #2
Round 1: 2003 Cardinals / Giants hitting (1st hitting team taken)
Round 2: 1993 Braves / Rockies pitching (12th pitching team taken)

Comments:
When it was time to start the Top-16 draft, one of the first leagues I considered choosing was this league. I really loved the 2004 hitting combo that included Bonds, Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen plus Randy Johnson's stud season as a free agent. Then when I did more research, I found a few other hitting combos in this league that I also liked and decided it wasn't quite worth it for one of my top picks. One of those other combos was this 2003 hitting group that isn't as top heavy as the 2004 team, but is more balanced and includes free agent Jason Schmidt. I just couldn't get over that big zero at catcher at 2004. There just isn't a weak link on this 2003 offense (no offensive starting hitter under .850 OPS). Not surprisingly, darny10 took the 2004 group as the 2nd hitting combo taken. It was really hard to pass up that Bonds season, but I did.

As for pitching, I figured I'd get one of the Maddux seasons, and was one pick away from getting 1995. But the 1993 pitching, as a group, might be the better choice. I really like the bullpen. One of the reasons I chose 2003 hitting over 2004 is there was a non-zero chance that a good Randy Johnson pitching group would be available and I wouldn't be able to use '04 Johnson as my free agent (or I'd have to pass on the Johnson-led pitching group). It almost happened to darny10. That 1999 Diamonbacks/Braves pitching group was one pick away from getting to him. Does he take them knowing he can't use '04 Johnson or would they slide to me? So close.

Prediction:
I'm as excited about this team as I am of any of my teams. With many of the hitting choices having holes somewhere in the lineup, it will be fun to have a complete offense from top to bottom. Of course, excitement doesn't necessarily correlate with wins, but I'm optimistic that this group can win 90+ games. Predicted record: 94-68.

Mid-Season Update
(Thru game 87)

Record: 44-43 .506 (4th place, 6 games out of first, 6 games out of wildcard)
Offense Rank: 8th in NL (4.6 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 9th in NL (4.5 runs per game)
Defense: .985 Field% (league avg .987), Plus/Minus plays = 42/12 (league avg 24/22)
1-Run Games: 9-9
Exp Win%: .505
Free agent (real life stats): Jason Schmidt (208 ip, .208 oav, 0.95 whip)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 20 starts, 7-8 record, 121 ip, .274 oav, 1.42 whip, 4.33 era

Comments: Been very disappointed in this team's performance. I had such high hopes. The #1 hitting group selected is currently ranked 8th in runs scored in the NL despite ranking 4th in OPS. No single hitter is significantly underperforming. I can only assume I must be leaving lots of guys on base. Also, I expected way better from free agent Jason Schmidt. My two best RPs, Bedrosian and Wetteland have been terrible. I knew I should've taken the 2004 hitting + Randy Johnson. And once again, stuck in a stupidly tough division. The other teams have 50, 49, 47 wins. Grade: C