I'd like to get other owner's opinions on this. How much does success in WIS Baseball reflect skill in drafting, and how much is purely luck? I've been playing for several years and so often I see guys with real life numbers off the charts who have abysmal WIS seasons, while the same guys in the SAME league will have a great year.
So, I'm going to say it's about 60% luck and 40% drafting skill. Thoughts?

In a single league, the luck factor is pretty high. Over a lot of leagues, the luck factor is very low.

Some will draft a good player, then use him in a park that doesn't play to his strengths.

Why would you put a guy like Pete Alonso in Petco? You're then surprised when he hits 10 homers and bats .220. Really?

Why would you draft a RH hitting power hitter, place him in a pitcher's park, knowing you will face mainly RH deadball pitchers? Put him in a position to succeed, not failure.

I always put the luck number at 30 based upon my own intuition or anecdotal (an account not based on facts or research but how could anyone test for luck in SLB) ... I play in for the most part 80 and 90 Mil Salary Caps so I DRAFT CENTER with a concept in mind and then look for the best Stadium to put it in ... Have wondered why New Open still does not include all 135 Stadiums in Theme Leagues ... My newest revelation or concept (plan or intention) is finding Defense Range + players as I recently read that as a concensus Fielding Percentage would be less important ... And choosing a Stadium would be solely based upon it --- a counter balance to the D Fielding Percentage OF who is the best Offensive Option for the money --- But I have certain minimums for the IF which would mean having the Fielding Column 6 or 7 to 12 for a DRAFT CENTER Qualifier

Luck is certainly a factor, but there's a reason why you tend to see the same owners at the top of a lot of leagues. They know how to maximize their chances at performing well. What looks like luck on the surface might have other factors underneath - picking the right park, having an educated guess about what types of teams you will be facing, tweaking advanced settings...just to name a few possible factors. It's tough to put a number on it, because situations are different. A league with a wide range of top-level veterans and newbies will show that skill is the major factor, but a league full of people with similar skill will showcase the luck more.

It's far more skill than luck, but it's really more about experience. Most fans get the advanced metrics, but they don't know a lot of things that have been previously mentioned.

For example, when I first started to play again I was all about the on base percentage with my lineups. I thought if I had a high OBP throughout the lineup then the runners would have to score somehow. I also used good hitting starting pitchers. Then I saw their performance go down the drain and while the starting pitchers hit well, it didn't make for a good offense. I would have been better off with starting pitchers who were good pitchers and make up for their lack of hitting with quality hitters off the bench. And I started to see the folly of my OBP strategy as I didn't have anybody that could drive those baserunners in and most deadball era pitchers don't walk many hitters.

And the same goes for ballparks. Can even happen to the best of them as I had Ketel Marte for a season at Yankee Stadium II and he stunk up the joint with a .728 OPS. I kept waiting for him to go on a tear, but it never happened. That ballpark just took away his main strengths...doubles and triples.

Posted by rhuntccu on 6/22/2022 9:50:00 PM (view original):
It's far more skill than luck, but it's really more about experience. Most fans get the advanced metrics, but they don't know a lot of things that have been previously mentioned.

For example, when I first started to play again I was all about the on base percentage with my lineups. I thought if I had a high OBP throughout the lineup then the runners would have to score somehow. I also used good hitting starting pitchers. Then I saw their performance go down the drain and while the starting pitchers hit well, it didn't make for a good offense. I would have been better off with starting pitchers who were good pitchers and make up for their lack of hitting with quality hitters off the bench. And I started to see the folly of my OBP strategy as I didn't have anybody that could drive those baserunners in and most deadball era pitchers don't walk many hitters.

And the same goes for ballparks. Can even happen to the best of them as I had Ketel Marte for a season at Yankee Stadium II and he stunk up the joint with a .728 OPS. I kept waiting for him to go on a tear, but it never happened. That ballpark just took away his main strengths...doubles and triples.

Had the same revelation when I’d read play-by-plays and notice how many innings I’d have with 2 runners getting on base, and not scoring. So now I focus on average and XBHs

Having some speed on the bases helps as well. Personally I've found that my most efficient lineups (runs scored with relation to team OPS) tend to have a very good, traditional leadoff hitter (i.e. Tim Raines, Max Carey, Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, etc). And if there's some okay speed throughout the rest of the lineup, you'll score more runs than if you had a lineup with a better OPS, but slow baserunners that won't steal bases and won't score on those singles and doubles.

And I do believe there is some 'chemistry' involved and where the player(s) are put in the lineup. If you have a some high OBP players with not much speed in the lineup and then put a low AVG hitter who strikes out a lot behind them because they have a high SLG (and OPS), that may end up being a disaster compared to putting a higher AVG hitter that doesn't strike out a lot, but has a lower SLG %.

There's also little things to look out for such as your team can be a good offense, but grounds into double plays a ton and you may want to either be more aggressive on the baserunning or more aggressive with hit and runs.

The first team I made for the New 80 Open Pembroke was speed qualifier above 80 preferably 85 with #AVG above .290 and high #OBP many BB with #SLG not important and HR 0-10 purposely ... Then settings Base Running and Hit and Run Very Aggressive .... In most instances position players were from pre 1930 and few I could even put as Base Stealing 1 in Advanced Settings as no one had BS % above 60 but I would try a "1" just to see but there again that was not as important as the speed and price were relevant with the old never caught first to third and recently had double steal against weak catcher stole second and home neat ! ...Even catcher1887 John Kerins a 92 speed ... In Target Field

I'd say 50% drafting, 30% luck and 20% managing your roster. It's important to manage fatigue. But also, when it comes to really important games such as certain divisional opponents and playoffs to start your best SP, make sure you have the L/R matchups and check their lineup to see if you need to play your A+ arm catcher who can't hit or D- arm catcher who can hit. Not all games are equally important.

It is a probabilistic game. All you can do is put as many plusses on your side as possible but sometimes no matter what you do the RNG goes against you (or said differently Bob Milacki manages to not win either game 162 or 163 and you miss the playoffs)

Many good points here so I will summarize my opinions like this.
- Its not real life, and I have actually seen more instances of guys underperforming especially at high caps against better competition. Makes sense.
- You need balance, spending all your money on HRs in Coors is great but having bad pitchers will offset that.
- Drafting matters, your settings matter, your park matter, maybe not every game but good owners will Win an extra 10 games by not "forgetting to set something" over a season you will see it play out.

Now, Winning a World Series is a different story. There is a thread from last year about all the reasons why juggernauts in regular season can be beaten in the post season. I do think post season is a lot of luck but hard to be "lucky" for 162 games especially against good owners.

It's similar to poker, long term there's essentially no luck involved.

Posted by DoctorKz on 6/14/2022 10:28:00 PM (view original):
Some will draft a good player, then use him in a park that doesn't play to his strengths.

Why would you put a guy like Pete Alonso in Petco? You're then surprised when he hits 10 homers and bats .220. Really?

Why would you draft a RH hitting power hitter, place him in a pitcher's park, knowing you will face mainly RH deadball pitchers? Put him in a position to succeed, not failure.

Because a polar bear in a pet supply stadium is kinda funny, like he will "eat" right?

In all seriousness, this is a really good point, and one of the most helpful nuggets that's helped me have some success early on in my SIM League career.