It’s the most…wonderful draft…of the year…
There’ll be picks filled with doubt
And pulling hair out
And switching of gears!
It’s the most…wonderful draft…
Yes the most…wonderful draft…
Oh the most…wonderful draft ………OF THE YEAR!!!!
Yes, I know I used this as the opening for my last writeup, but this time it’s more seasonally appropriate. And thematically appropriate. Because the last draft, lyrics notwithstanding, went smoothly for me. I had little, if any, pulling hair out or switching of gears. This draft though…
Thanks, as always, to schwarze for running this amazing theme. Rostered players in bold. Stats shown are normalized. Comments from my draft post included when applicable.
Nomination –
1975 Tony Conigliaro (scrub, $200K)
“Much like The Grinch, I'm going to yank Barry Bonds out of everyone's stocking and replace him with:”
I certainly didn’t mean to do this, but my last two nominations for this theme have been tragic figures. Last season’s Ed Doheny was a pretty good pitcher who went certifiably insane during his playing career. This time I chose Tony Conigliaro, whose baseball career got off to an extremely auspicious start. In fact, he still holds the record for most major league home runs hit as a teenager with 24. In 1965, at age 20, he led the AL in homers. In 1967 he made his first All-Star team and was having his best year until an August game when he was drilled in the face with a pitch that broke his cheekbone, dislocated his jaw, and severely damaged his eye. He missed the rest of the 1967 “Impossible Dream” season (one wonders if that World Series, which went 7 games, might’ve had a different result had he played) and all of 1968. Tony C valiantly returned in 1969 to win the Comeback Player of the Year award, and hit 36 homers in 1970, but his declining eyesight soon caught up to him and he was pretty much done after 1971.
I chose Conigliaro after originally nominating “poor” Marvin Benard, who, unbeknownst to me, had been nominated and then rejected twice before. I had just arrived in Portland, Maine for an overnight trip visiting friends when I received the invitation for this league. Obviously I immediately accepted, and was a bit surprised that by the following afternoon when I next checked in most of the nominations had already been made and only outfielders were available. I initially thought that Benard made sense because not only did the 2003 version come with a great Jason Schmidt but also my favorite Bonds, albeit a costly one (550 PA, $11+M). After further review I decided against Benard because, after reviewing the other nominations, I thought that there was enough of a paucity of talent in this league that most other people also would be able to afford a Bonds, which would somewhat neutralize my advantage. So instead I chose Tony C and the accompanying
Fred Lynn (613 PA, .334/.401/.568, B/A+, $7.8M) whom I have used in this theme previously to good effect. And he gives me a CF with range above D+, which as previously documented
ad nauseum is never a guarantee with me.
Round 1 –
1972 Doug Rau (35 IP, 1.44 ERC#, $1.4M)
“At least this way I'll have one good relief pitcher.”
Of course, the $200K Conigliaro guaranteed me first pick in the draft. I think I had that with Benard also, but this prevented anyone from undercutting me. At the time I was convinced that my first pick would be the 2019 Cole, who yields a quality non-teammate SP, two additional quality starters, and a great offensive shortstop. However, upon further review I started to doubt that idea. For one thing, there were so many good starting pitchers available in this league that getting the two teammates wasn’t that big a deal, especially since I’m not all that big a fan of either one. And taking Cole would likely drop me to the middle or end of the second round, which is too long to wait for a second pick. While I didn’t think wasted salary would be nearly as big an issue in this league as it is in Brickyard Kennedy-type leagues, I saw value in getting the biggest minefield out of the way early, especially since he brought with him a SP that I do like,
Don Sutton (285 IP, 1.75 ERC#, $12.9M). And as my draft thread comment suggests, adding a great reliever is a huge bonus, as I tend to skimp on my bullpen in these leagues.
Round 2 –
2020 Jose Abreu (707 PA, .328/.376/.601, C/A+, $7.0M)
“Well that sucks.”
After my pick the first round proceeded according to Hoyle until the final pick, when joerat1 chose the 2018 Yelich. I was devastated. Not because I wanted the 2018, but because I wanted the 2019. But “why didn’t you get him?”, you ask, as I had first pick in the first round and drafted a low salary player with that pick. Because slainte undercut me with his first round pick, that’s why. There was zero doubt in my mind that he would take the only other remaining dominant Yelich, and he did, obliterating my initial strategy in the process. Going into this draft it was clear that I would need at least 5 of my 9 teammates to be pitchers, which left at most 4 offensive teammates. In order to field a lineup worthy of my “score first and ask questions later” philosophy I needed to have a dominant Yelich, because other than Abreu there weren’t any other dominant offensive nominees. Of course, to rub it in, slainte got the other dominant Abreu in round 3, executing the very draft maneuver that I had planned. This is the second straight 16x16 where slainte flat-out pwned me (and, IMO, everyone else) in the nomination and early rounds of the draft. I recovered in the last version, but given the lack of overall talent this time I was feeling pretty pessimistic about doing the same.
I chose the 2020 Abreu over the cheaper 2014 because he had two good starting pitcher teammates, several possible relievers including
Codi Heuer (64 IP, 1.29 ERC#, $3.1M), and SS
Tim Anderson (597 PA, .333/.363/.512, B-/B+, $6.0M) in case I didn’t draft a startable Baez.
Round 3 –
1963 Pete Ward (667 PA, .303/.362/.483, D+/B+, $4.9M)
My reasoning around this pick is a little fuzzy, as I didn’t provide any helpful commentary at the time. But I notice that the 3 remaining good Cole seasons all went between my previous pick and this one, so given that they were gone I guess I decided to lock in the one remaining starting-quality Ward so I wouldn’t have to waste a teammate slot at third base. Ward brought along a few potential pitching teammates (Wilhelm, Peters) that I didn’t end up using. He also precluded me from carrying out my original plan, which ended up being a mistake.
Round 4 –
1999 Chris Haney (40 IP, 4.03 ERC#, $710K)
“When I saw a cheap Chris Haney come off the board my heart sank briefly, but luckily I was targeting a different cheap Haney.”
I hate drafting a guy like Haney this early. There were so many cheap versions of him available that there was no chance of ending up with significant wasted salary so I’d rather wait until the endgame to get mine. But, as I’ve already mentioned a few times, the challenge in this draft was to find good offense. And boy, does this Haney come with good offense. When he was nominated (changed from deGrom) my eyes lit up when I saw that he was on the 1999 Indians, who include the best full-season
Manny Ramirez (640 PA, .327/.432/.636, C/D+, $7.3M) and one of the few dominant 2B in this draft,
Roberto Alomar (694 PA, .317/.412/.503, A/C-, $7.5M). And, without a dominant Yelich, I needed as much offense as I could find. At the outset of the draft I knew that I’d need to start a nominated player at either 2B or 3B. My first plan was to target the 1983 Remy as a starter and use his teammate Boggs at 3B. But I already had Ward to play 3B and I figured that enough people would be willing to start Remy that I’d have little trouble getting a cheap version mid-draft. In other words, I thought that people would behave rationally. #foreshadowing
Round 5 –
1965 Johnny Roseboro (waste, $3.3M)
“I guess after however many of these leagues that I've done, I should see what it's like to try to have a decent pitching staff. Of course, my penance for having nominated a righthanded home run hitter will be to draft a lefthanded pitcher who allows a lot of homers.”
For better or for worse, this was the turning point in my draft. The way I generally approach these drafts is to assume that people have higher standards for their starting pitching than I do, so I let them gobble up all of the elite SPs while I load up on offense and then fill my staff with second-tier guys who can still do OK against the lesser lineups of all the teams that focused on pitching. The thought is to end up with pitching that’s maybe 20% worse than league average and offense that’s 30% - 40% better. I don’t quantify that in my planning, of course, but that’s the general idea. Well, by this pick I already had a pretty good idea of what my starting lineup would look like:
C – Munson TBD (OK)
1B – Abreu (very good)
2B – Alomar (very good)
SS – Baez or a teammate (OK or good)
3B – Ward (OK)
LF – Some combo of Yelich, Eaton, or a teammate (OK or good)
CF – Lynn (very good)
RF – Manny Ramirez (excellent)
I’d call that a good lineup. Not a dominant lineup, not an excellent lineup, not a lineup that can win a division for a team with 20% less than league average pitching. There was no way that I could use more than 4 teammates in my offense, so at most I could add one more teammate, at SS or in the OF. And frankly, neither position had a player still available that would elevate this offense to elite status. So as I saw it I had only one choice: I had to make my pitching better. I had to elevate it to at least be on par with the rest of the league. And at this point there were two dominant pitchers left who could make an impact on my staff. There was the 1978 Guidry, my real life favorite pitcher of all time. But he came with a mediocre offensive Munson, who would make my lineup worse, and I didn’t feel like it was anywhere close to Munson time in the draft. Then there was the 1965
Sandy Koufax (336 IP, 1.67 ERC#, $16.1M). Homer prone, and a bit overpriced, but otherwise great with a ton of innings. Sure, his accompanying Roseboro was a complete waste and not cheap, but he cost only about $800K more than the cheapest available version and I just chalked that up to the price I had to pay for getting an elite pitcher in the 5
th round.
In a parallel universe where I ended up with the 2019 Yelich this pick probably would have been the ’89 West with HoJo at SS, who, coincidentally, was the very next pick. I then would’ve added the cheaper ’68 Roseboro in the endgame and used his teammate Dean Chance in my rotation. Chance is precisely the type of second-tier SP that I love to use in these themes. I hope somebody uses him here; I’d be willing to bet he performs at close to league average, and he costs exactly zero draft capital to acquire.
Round 6 –
2012 Matt Harvey (59 IP, 2.77 ERC#, $1.6M)
This is one of those picks where you need a bunch of guys but you figure that they’ll all be there next round so it feels like a waste to take them now and you forget that you can’t take two guys next round so you should probably take one now even though it’s too early but instead you take somebody you really don’t need just so you don’t feel like you’ve reached. This is the sort of phenomenon that the Germans would have one 27-letter word for. But at least I got another arm in the pen who might be able to get someone out. And perhaps I prevented someone from rostering a really good David Wright, so I’ll have that to keep me warm while enjoying my three-decker sauerkraut and toadstool sandwich with arsenic sauce.
Round 7 –
2016 Christian Yelich (663 PA, .302/.380/.467, C/D+, $4.7M)
Having frittered away my previous pick it was time to make some decisions. Namely about what to do about my open shortstop and outfield positions. I had to use a nominated player at one of them at least, and if I used nominees at both I could use an extra pitcher in my bullpen. I still wasn’t ready to decide whether to draft a startable Baez, so I kept my options open and took the best remaining Yelich. He’s OK, I guess, but he’s more like the kind of guy who I usually laugh at other teams for starting. This whole having a legitimate pitching staff thing doesn’t seem like much fun at all.
Halftime Festivus rant
Ah, Festivus. The time for feats of strength and the airing of grievances. I don’t know about the former, but to quote Frank Costanza “I got a lot of problems with you people, and now you’re gonna hear about it!!!”
//rant
The name of this game is getting the greatest marginal value for the few precious teammate spots that you have. Is Jerry Remy a great player? No. He may not even be a good player. But he’s a left-handed hitter who has plenty of seasons with just enough plate appearances to hit 8
th and not require a backup. He also gets on base just enough to get the inning to the 9
th (pitcher) spot often enough so that at least the following inning starts with your leadoff hitter. In other words, he is a perfectly acceptable #8 hitter. In fact, much better is kind of a waste because they’ll be intentionally walked in any key spot. And best of all he’s super cheap for an acceptable starting player.
Now, does that mean that everyone should want to start Jerry Remy? No. There were second basemen available in this draft who provided enough marginal value above Jerry Remy to be used instead. Those players were named Roberto Alomar, DJ LeMahieu, and Jose Altuve. One might argue that Aaron Hill be added to that list, but to me he is massively overpriced.
In a world where people behave rationally, the reasonable expectation would be that while a few owners would lock in aforementioned high marginal value second basemen and therefore covet the low-cost and low-PA Remys, others would see the value in locking in a very low priced, perfectly acceptable starting #8 hitter who does not require usage of a precious teammate slot. One would expect that the most desirable Remys (like, you know, the $3.1M, 647 PA, .320 OBP, A defense 1983 Remy who comes with WADE BLEEPING BOGGS, THE BEST THIRD BASEMAN AVAILABLE IN A DRAFT WHERE THE NOMINATED THIRD BASEMAN ONLY HAD TWO OR THREE USABLE STARTING SEASONS) and the majority of the available high marginal value second basemen would come off the board before all of the low salary Remys are drafted.
So what happened in Round 7? Both available cheap Remys were drafted. OK. Some of the desirable full season Remys (such as THE ONE WITH WADE BLEEPING BOGGS) must have already been taken. Nope. None were taken. OK. The people who took the cheap Remys must have already drafted high marginal value second basemen, or, at the very least, must still be able to draft high marginal value second basemen. Let’s see. I had Alomar. Someone else had LeMahieu. What about Altuve? Nope, both owners already had their Hernandez, who was linked with Altuve. HILL??? One owner had his Eaton. The other did not, but Hill isn’t that great anyway.
WHAT IN SAM HILL IS GOING ON AROUND HERE?!?!?!?!?!
Let’s check the other draft. Oh look. The 1983 Remy, the $3M one with WADE BLEEPING BOGGS, went in the 3
rd round. Two other starting Remys went in the 5
th round. Then the last cheap Remy was taken in the 8
th round.
THAT IS THE WAY IT IS SUPPOSED TO WORK!!!!! IF YOU WOULD ALL PLAY RIGHT EVERYONE WOULD BE HAPPY WITH THEIR TEAMS!!!!!!!!!!
Rant//
I suppose one positive to come out of this is that now I know how Dr. Strangelove felt at 3:47 here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmCKJi3CKGE
The above rant is in honor of my grandmother, who is one of my very favorite people in the world. She would often get into arguments with her sister, my Aunt Rose, during the family’s annual Christmas Day game of “Crazy Bridge”, which is a card game that is very much like Spades in that you have to announce beforehand how many tricks you will take in each hand. Aunt Rose was a good soul, but not the sharpest tool in the shed, and my Vo’Vo’ would always holler at her when she made a mistake that prevented her from making her number of tricks. “IF YOU WOULD PLAY RIGHT, ROSIE, EVERYONE WOULD MAKE THEIR POINTS!!!”
My Vo’Vo’ is now 98 years old. She was 100% mentally with it, sharp as a tack, until she was 96. She is the oldest of 5 siblings. Just before COVID began Aunt Rose passed away, leaving Vo’Vo’ the last living of her siblings, at which point her mental faculty plummeted. I don’t think it’s Alzheimer’s; I think she’s just checked out. So I guess what I’m saying is to appreciate what you have while you have it, because you never know when it’ll be gone. From my Vo’Vo’ I inherited many traits, including my love of travel, music, cities, generally having a good time, and the occasional penchant for engaging in overblown self-righteous indignation. Of course, the owners referred to in my rant likely had extremely good reasons to make the picks they made, and even if they didn’t, who the hell am I to say what is rational and to tell people how to run their teams? Nobody. Someone with zero championships in this theme. And even if I had 10 or 20 titles what difference would that make? Heck, is my Tim Anderson really that much better than Javy Baez that he warrants using a teammate slot? Not really. So I guess the point of this is that self-righteous indignation is really bad. Most people probably figured that out a long time ago, but it’s something I have to remind myself from time to time. At least I can recognize it now, which is a start.
Now, as Casey Kasem would say, on with the countdown.
(my apologies in advance for two downer posts in a row, but that’s the way the draft went)
Round 8 –
1975 Thurman Munson (670 PA, .321/.367/.421, D+/A/A+, $6.2M)
One of the very earliest sad memories of my life occurred on August 2, 1979. I don’t remember exactly what I was doing when I heard. I’m guessing that whatever TV show I was watching was interrupted with a special news bulletin. I was stunned more than anything else. But what I remember most is that my father hadn’t yet returned home from work. He was a teacher, but would paint houses during the summer with his teacher friends. I remember thinking that I was going to be a tough little 9 year-old and not show any emotion. I remember my father coming through the front door of our New Jersey home. I asked him if he had heard what happened. He said no. I said “Thurman Munson died in a plane crash” and started bawling before I could finish the final word. It was only when I said it out loud that it became real to me.
There is no doubt in my mind, any more than there is doubt that 2+2=4, that if Thurman Munson was still on the Yankees in 1981 they would not have blown a two games to none lead in the World Series.
As for this pick, it seemed like a Munson run was coming, and I wanted to get a good one so as not to further hamstring my suboptimal lineup. On paper it seems like the 1973 Munson is the best, but he only has 576 PAs, which means that my backup would probably have to start 10-15 games, and any day that the 1965 Roseboro doesn’t have a bat in his hands is a good day. Also, according to the performance history (I almost called it “past performances”; you can tell that during COVID I took up a new hobby of losing money betting on horse races) the 1975 is every bit as good as the ’73. But most of all, the 1975 Munson came with the type of second-tier SP that I like in these leagues: Jim
“Catfish” Hunter (333 IP, 2.19 ERC#, $10.8M). That’s a lot of innings for one pitcher, and enabled me to have a 3-man rotation with Sutton and Koufax. Koufax and Hunter should be able to get into the 7
th inning in many games, which is key given the short bullpens in this theme.
Round 9 –
1996 David West (Long B type of guy; 29 IP, 3.63 ERC#, $623K)
“Go West, young man.”
Channeling my inner Horace Greeley or trying to start a run? Only my hairdresser knows for sure. Just kidding. I don’t have a hairdresser. For one thing, that would require hair. Anyway, $600K seems a reasonable price to pay for someone who might be able to hold down the fort in the 14
th inning or so.
Round 10 –
2014 Ki’ke Hernandez (89 PA, .289/.355/.413, D+/B, $519K)
We’re entering the endgame here. Back in round 8 the final palatable starting Baez went off the board, so I needed to decide whether I wanted to start an unpalatable Baez, start some Frankenstein-esque amalgam of Baez and Ki’ke <<shudder>>, or use a 4
th teammate on a shortstop and hamstring my bullpen. I went with the latter. Of course, you already figured that out when I included Tim Anderson’s stats in the round 2 writeup. Well aren’t you clever? In order to pull this off I needed the cheapest remaining Baez. I didn’t take him here because I thought he would drop another round and I also needed a cheap Hernandez who could also pinch hit and make the occasional start in the outfield. I also wanted to take the good Altuve off the board just out of spite.
Round 11 –
2014 Javy Baez (backup/defensive replacement, .174/.234/.324, C/A+, $1.2M)
And here’s my cheap Baez. I love it when a plan comes together. Especially when that plan includes a
Jake Arrieta (157 IP, 1.95 ERC#, $6.1M) who I’ll use as a spot starter / setup guy.
Round 12 –
2014 Gerrit Cole (Long A, 138 IP, 3.52 ERC#, $3.1M)
(posted after the fact):
“I needed the serviceable Cole or Sorensen, but not both. I was considering taking Sorensen but would only be able to do so because footballmm11 was letting everyone skip him; when I saw that he needed his I decided to go with Cole instead. Sure enough, a few minutes later he took that Sorensen.
I feel like my small heart grew 3 sizes today. I suppose I should see my cardiologist.”
That pretty much sums it up. I’m counting on using most or all of Cole’s innings, which could be hazardous to my health, but that’s the price I pay for not locking in a better one earlier.
Round 13 –
2012 Adam Eaton (103 PA, .263/.388/.403, C/D+, $690K)
I considered taking this Eaton for the previous three or four rounds. Since he wasn’t the cheapest available, and I wasn’t sure if anyone would need any of the available starting versions, I gambled that he’d drop. Unlike the 5
th race at Gulfstream yesterday, I won this one. I’ll need his PAs both as a pinch-hitter and backup OF; with him and Hernandez I actually have a reasonably good bench for a change. He comes with a relief pitcher named David Hernandez, who I didn’t use (and in fact have never heard of) but looks like he would be pretty effective in the right spot. Duly noted.
I also gobbled up Aaron Hill, thus cornering the market on the only second basemen available in the second half of the draft who people should’ve been willing to not start Jerry Remy instead of.
I also very much hope that whoever nominated Eaton uses Sir Denis Eaton-Hogg as their team name.
Round 14 –
1976 Jerry Remy (waste, .266/.317/.313, B-/B-, $3.3M)
I’ve spent virtually all of my adult life living in Boston. I grew up in New Jersey as a Yankee fan, and remain one to this day. However, being in Boston and being a baseball fan, I’ve watched a lot of Red Sox games. Because of his affable personality people tended to think of Jerry Remy as the comedic member of Red Sox broadcasts, but in my opinion he is not only the best, but also the least biased person I’ve ever heard announce a Sox game. Most Sox announcers, from the color commentators (who I believe can be forgiven for a certain amount of hometown bias) to the play-by-play guys (who I believe should be impartial) have been disgustingly overwhelming homers, from way back to Sean McDonough all the way to the insipid Dennis Eckersley (who frankly has no business being such a Boston kiss-***, having come up with Cleveland, and having been born in Oakland and spending the most famous years of his career there, and having spent no more time playing in Boston than Remy did, and Remy was born and raised in southeastern Mass.) To me, Remy was a pro. Sure he could joke around, but for important games (and especially Yankee games) he always brought his A-game, which I always appreciated.
Anyway, it turns out that my father looks very much like Jerry Remy. Actually, I’d say he looks much better than Jerry Remy does now, as Remy passed away a couple of months ago. But he looks very much like Remy did. Given that my father lives in NJ, this didn’t affect his day-to-day life much. But when he travelled to New England, or bumped into a Red Sox fan elsewhere, he was constantly asked for autographs. Often, when people would inquire whether he was indeed Jerry Remy, my father’s response in the negative would placate them, as my Dad does not speak in anything approaching the blatant Boston accent that Remy had. But others would not be convinced. A woman on a cruise ship elevator once positively INSISTED that he was Remy, despite all of my father’s friends and family vehemently denying it; she would not be satisfied until he signed an autograph and took a photo with her, which he did as it was the only way she’d stop hounding him. This past summer I was with my Dad at the Basketball Hall of Fame in Springfield, MA and no one said anything because we were all wearing masks, but as soon as he removed his mask at a photo booth a bunch of employees and visitors started taking pictures with him. One would think that Remy’s death would put an end to this phenomenon, but I am convinced that within a few days of my Dad’s next visit to Boston (post-mask mandate) you will start seeing internet rumors about how Jerry Remy faked his own death and is actually still alive, Elvis-style, with photos of my Dad cited as proof.
As for this pick, this was the cheapest, best offensive, and best defensive Remy still available, and yet still a complete waste of $3.3M. Thanks, doo-doo heads!
Round 15 –
1982 Lary Sorensen (waste, suck, $2.7M)
Not only is Lary Sorensen missing an “r”, he’s also the type of pitcher who hangs around long after they’re useful just because they’re left-handed. Except he’s right-handed. I have nothing nice to say about Lary Sorensen. And yet I said something about him. Shows how often I listen to my mother.
Epilogue
I think I did an OK job with this draft. At least I think I executed my post-switching-of-gears strategy as well as I could have. While I was keeping track of everyone’s teams in my spreadsheet until the last few rounds, I haven’t finished loading the players from the last few rounds so I don’t have a sense of how my team compares to others. But here’s what mine looks like.
Lineup:
2B Alomar .317/.412/.503
LF Yelich .302/.380/.467
RF Ramirez 327/.432/.636
1B Abreu .328/.376/.601
CF Lynn .334/.401/.568
SS Anderson .333/.363/.512
3B Ward .303/.362/.483
C Munson .321/.367/.421
Above, plus backups Eaton and Hernandez:
5443 PA, .319/.386/.521
Pitching:
SP Koufax 336 IP, 1.67 ERC#
SP Sutton 285 IP, 1.75 ERC#
SP Hunter 333 IP, 2.19 ERC#
SP/Setup A Arrieta 157 IP, 1.95 ERC#
Setup A Heuer 64 IP, 1.29 ERC#
Setup B Harvey 59 IP, 2.77 ERC#
Closer Rau 35 IP, 1.44 ERC#
Long A Cole 138 IP, 3.52 ERC#
Total above: 1407 IP, 2.05 ERC#
General waste (players not listed above): $12.3M
Well, that’s all folks. Thanks for reading. Good luck in the season, and have a very Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and a very Happy New Year!