Ridiculous Topic

reinsel
Posts: 927 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 130
Rookie
Think of it this way, if there is a normal distribution, then game 1 was a standard deviation or maybe 2 in Lane's favor, and game 2 was a std dev or 2 in clark's favor.

If someone told me the expected score was Lane by 15 with a std deviation of 10 points, that would be pretty reasonable to me. Lane wins about 80% of the time.

How little variation should there be? Needs to be enough to keep it interesting. I think no team in the same division (D1 vs D1) should have more than a 3 std deviation lead. 2 yields a 95% chance of winning.
4/17/2010 1:59 PM
dalter
Posts: 71 (0)
All Star
25
Prospect
Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 4/17/2010The swing still isn't completely justified...dalter has pretty much admitted that game 1 produced a rather unexpected result
Again, you have a total failure to differentiate between "unexpected" and "crazy to the point where it simply shouldn't happen and is proof that things are broken".

Unexpected happens a lot, and unexpected is still totally normal. One team being hot and another cold for a half is NOT CRAZY.

There is NOTHING about that game that indicates a malfunctioning sim.
4/17/2010 4:23 PM
zhawks
Posts: 881 (0)
Hall of Famer
208 66 38
Pro
Oh c'mon everyone, colonels clearly has a much better grasp on not only how the game works but how it should work.

We should all just bow down to our new leaders - Colonels and Diablo.
4/17/2010 5:41 PM
dcy0827
Posts: 798 (0)
Hall of Famer
727
Pro
Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 4/17/2010Oh c'mon everyone, colonels clearly has a much better grasp on not only how the game works but how it should work.

We should all just bow down to our new leaders - Colonels and Diablo


They're not one and the same?
4/17/2010 5:50 PM
jetwildcat
Posts: 1204 (0)
Hall of Famer
198 3
Prospect
Quote: Originally posted by dcy0827 on 4/17/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 4/17/2010Oh c'mon everyone, colonels clearly has a much better grasp on not only how the game works but how it should work.

We should all just bow down to our new leaders - Colonels and Diablo.They're not one and the same?

ouch.

...who am i talking about? i'm not sure
4/17/2010 9:58 PM
colonels19
Posts: 4399 (0)
Hall of Famer
78 90 3 1 168 2 1 11
Prospect
Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 4/17/2010Oh c'mon everyone, colonels clearly has a much better grasp on not only how the game works but how it should work. I never said this, and "how the game should work" varies person to person. We have differences of opinion and I'm ok with that.

We should all just bow down to our new leaders - Colonels and Diablo. You're being relatively over-dramatic.
4/18/2010 9:52 AM
a_in_the_b
Posts: 1653 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 18 666 3
Pro
Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 4/18/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 4/17/2010
Oh c'mon everyone, colonels clearly has a much better grasp on not only how the game works but how it should work. I never said this, and "how the game should work" varies person to person. We have differences of opinion and I'm ok with that.

We should all just bow down to our new leaders - Colonels and Diablo. You're being relatively over-dramatic.


. . says the certified and certifiable expert on over dramatizing things.

4/18/2010 12:49 PM
doomey
Posts: 141 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 329 12 13
Prospect
Bah, I had to come back...

First off, like dalter said, unexpected is not "out of the realm of possibility". Unexpected outcomes happen all the time (again proof that you need to study probability). Shooting .600 for a half is NOT unprecidented. He was spot on regarding the true culprit of the spread as well.



"Clark's HCA was worse than pitino's team's HCA...Clark was a C...Lane was a B...I would expect Pitino's team to play better at home than Clark's would/should at home...something you're not considering when you're just looking at the fact that Clark is at home."

This again shows your weakness in understanding both the engine and general logic. You say you would expect Lane to play better at home, but are apoplectic when they do. So they had an outstanding home half, that's it. When you look at Clark's lower HCA, you can't just look at it as a smaller advantage, you have to look at it as not only Clark getting more home support, but Lane loosing that home boost. They are two differant modifiers.
4/18/2010 1:10 PM
colonels19
Posts: 4399 (0)
Hall of Famer
78 90 3 1 168 2 1 11
Prospect
Quote: Originally Posted By doomey on 4/18/2010
Bah, I had to come back...

First off, like dalter said, unexpected is not "out of the realm of possibility". Since you're quoting these words, I'd love to see where I said them. There are 2 games in question here, and aren't necessarily independent of each other because its the comparison of 1 game to another that led pitino to be ****** to begin with. Unexpected outcomes happen all the time (again proof that you need to study probability). I don't believe in WIS or their engine, so why should I think what they output is good? Because you think so? Nope...next. Shooting .600 for a half is NOT unprecidented. Never said it was, again, compare it to the game after. He was spot on regarding the true culprit of the spread as well. He discussed this? I think the bottom line still remains that if you win game 1 by 38 or whatever, the team shouldn't have to make any changes to win game 2, especially against a sim...you can/should basically be able to chalk it up...you couldn't and didn't here, thus you can make the argument that he has a right to be ******. You guys tend to downplay my side of the argument.



"Clark's HCA was worse than pitino's team's HCA...Clark was a C...Lane was a B...I would expect Pitino's team to play better at home than Clark's would/should at home...something you're not considering when you're just looking at the fact that Clark is at home."

This again shows your weakness in understanding both the engine and general logic. You say you would expect Lane to play better at home, but are apoplectic when they do. ? So they had an outstanding home half, that's it. When you look at Clark's lower HCA, you can't just look at it as a smaller advantage Why not, that's EXACTLY what it is lofl., you have to look at it as not only Clark getting more home support, but Lane loosing that home boost. Enough to justify a 44 point swing? My answer to that question is no....maybe if Lane's HCA is a D- and Clark's is an A. Clark's C HCA shouldn't have gotten them the W at home against a team that they're -70 OTR against. They are two differant modifiers.

4/18/2010 5:17 PM
colonels19
Posts: 4399 (0)
Hall of Famer
78 90 3 1 168 2 1 11
Prospect
Quote: Originally Posted By a_in_the_b on 4/18/2010


. . says the certified and certifiable expert on over dramatizing things.



Says the king of one-liners who has nothing better to do/say about the issues at hand...
4/18/2010 5:18 PM
arssanguinus
Posts: 1120 (0)
Hall of Famer
282 1
Pro
This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.
4/18/2010 8:48 PM
franklin1
Posts: 0 (0)
Prospect
1
Prospect
Quote: Originally Posted By dbalog on 4/17/2010
I imagine this is kind of like watching the Lincoln-Douglas debates.

That is, if Lincoln were dalter and Douglas were retarded.

4/18/2010 8:51 PM
doomey
Posts: 141 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 329 12 13
Prospect
I think the bottom line still remains that if you win game 1 by 38 or whatever, the team shouldn't have to make any changes to win game 2, especially against a sim...you can/should basically be able to chalk it up

'nuff said. You haven't a clue.
4/19/2010 1:32 AM
colonels19
Posts: 4399 (0)
Hall of Famer
78 90 3 1 168 2 1 11
Prospect
Quote: Originally Posted By doomey on 4/19/2010

I think the bottom line still remains that if you win game 1 by 38 or whatever, the team shouldn't have to make any changes to win game 2, especially against a sim...you can/should basically be able to chalk it up

'nuff said. You haven't a clue.

Its a perfectly logical statement...you don't win by 40 and think "I'd better change something because I'll probably lose the next game". Winning by 40 sets an expectation for the next game that you'll play against X team, that you will pretty much win regardless, and that's a very fair expectation...again ESPECIALLY against a sim that you're +70 OTR against that didn't make any changes.
4/19/2010 10:25 AM
doomey
Posts: 141 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 329 12 13
Prospect
First off, you said 1 to 38. 1. Not 40. By saying 1 you are saying anytime someone wins. Period.

Secondly, it doesn't matter if YOU change ANYTHING. You are in a new game, the opposition has improved and you are at a new venue. For starters. If you expect the same probability to reoccur identicly, you are insane.

Finally, a +70 OTR means absolutely jack. It is the individual numbers that make the differance. If that is all you are looking at, you need to sit back down and learn about the game.
4/19/2010 12:39 PM
◂ Prev 1...11|12|13|14 Next ▸
Ridiculous Topic
△Top△Bottom

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2026 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.