16x16 v30 Draft - AL (Draft Strategy Writeups) Topic

Final picks:
1971 Thurman Munson
1994 David West
1977 Doug Rau
12/22/2021 5:13 PM
I tried to be better prepared for my 2nd go-round with this theme. While last version was much more about saving money and not wasting PA/IP, this one seemed to be more about making sure you could spend up to the cap. I tried to do some projections early on and it seemed like it would be hard to go way over the cap, but that I couldn't completely ignore the salary implications of picks. Still feeling like a novice, I tried to give myself options and flexibility, valuing those over a more perfect fit/strategy but with less margin for error (either in how the draft unfolded or, more likely, an error in my planning).

Initial Nomination: 2017 Adam Eaton (role: backup CF)
Teammate: SP3 Max Scherzer

I was looking for players with good teammate options who could have a role on the team themselves. I looked into 2003 Marvin Bernard (poor guy) as well as some others like 2015 Dodgers (liked the teammates, just not the player options), but settled on Eaton who has a very nice 107 PA season and comes with a ton of teammate options (Harper, Murphy, Rendon among hitters; Scherzer, Strasburg, Madson among pitchers). Ultimately only used Scherzer, but the optionality really helped me take other risks throughout the draft.

Round 1, Pick 3: 2019 Gerrit Cole (role: SP2)
Teammates: 3B Alex Bregman; SP1 Justin Verlander; SP4 Zach Greinke

I didn't mind dropping down in the order. Cole was easily one of the best nominated players (I had him as the #1 pitcher) and came with some more fantastic teammates. I ended up using 3 of them--both of the other starting pitcher options (Verlander and Greinke) as well as Bregman. Again, the extra options (Bregman can play 3B or SS... plus Springer, Alvarez, and Altuve were all in different iterations along the way) helped me be flexible along the way.

Round 2, Pick 7: 2020 Christian Yelich (role: platoon RF)
Teammates: SetupA Corbin Burnes; CloserA Devin Williams

The top two Yelich's went early and while this version is pretty mediocre, he comes with two stud teammates who really bolster my bullpen. The pitching staff is almost set and for the most part I had these 6 pitchers penciled in the whole way through. My offense is still a work in progress but I feel fine about it at this point--only Bregman made it through of this group but I had lots of solid options should I have needed them.

Round 3, Pick 7: 1970 Johnny Roseboro (role: backup C)
Teammates: none

I wasn't sure just how much salary savings would be needed, it was hard to project. But with two nominated catchers, I didn't want to get stuck with over 1000 mediocre catching at-bats. I liked Munson's depth of seasons and this was the cheapest Roseboro season so I took it. It also moved me up a few spots, so nice bonus.

Round 4, Pick 4: 1970 Pete Ward (role: bat boy)
Teammates: none

I didn't have much time on this pick, but similar to Roseboro I felt it couldn't hurt to have a cheap guy at a position I had covered (with Bregman). No teammates again.

Round 5, Pick 2: 1964 Tony Conigliaro (role: platoon RF)
Teammates: none

There were some other Conigliaro seasons I considered either for him or his teammates. But I really liked getting a strong hitting season on a cheap salary (just $3.3m) and thankfully I didn't need to stretch for teammates given my plethora of options from earlier picks. He could be a nearly-full-time OF with 444 PA as the bulk part of a platoon, or just a really nice 4th OF/pinch-hitter. Ultimately, he'll serve the former role for me pairing with Yelich.

Round 6, Pick 2: 2017 Jose Abreu (role: starting 1B)
Teammates: none

Again, a luxury pick since I didn't need teammates. The two stud Abreu seasons were long gone but this was easily the 3rd-best option and I knew Abreu had to be my starting 1B--both because he doesn't have any waste seasons and also because this is the one position I didn't have a teammate lined up (well, catcher too I guess).

Round 7, Pick 4: 2019 Matt Harvey (role: mopup)
Teammates: CF Mike Trout

I had some decent OF options as teammates but none on the level of Trout, so I decided to upgrade. Harvey's cheap season helps, even if he won't help on the diamond.

Round 8, Pick 3: 2021 Javier Baez (role: platoon SS/2B)
Teammates: none

Wasn't sure what I was going to do with my last couple teammates at this point and may have needed both Baez and Remy to start. This was by far the best Baez left and I also considered Kimbrel if I wanted another relief season. In the end, Baez will platoon with Remy between 2B and SS, and I didn't end up using Kimbrel.

Round 9, Pick 4: 2020 **** Hernandez (role: utility man)
Teammates: SS/2B Corey Seager

Another luxury pick. This version brought me Seager, who I ended up using, as well as a ton of relief pitching options (Gonsolin, Kershaw, etc.), who I did not use. Seager will ultimately play SS and 2B, as when he plays with Baez I'll have to put Seager at 2B where I assume his adjusted fld/rng (from his C-/A+ at SS) will be better than Baez's actual C-/D. Hernandez himself can't really hit, but he can play all over the field and has good range everywhere.

Round 10, Pick 2: 1978 Jerry Remy (role: platoon SS/2B)
Teammates: none

The best Remy, I was considering the version with Boggs as a teammate (moving Bregman to SS) but once I got Seager, I shifted gears and could take this Remy. He's not great, but he can field and get on base a little bit. Will probably play the smaller half of the platoon with Baez, even though Remy is a lefty hitter. Considered Jim Rice as a teammate but ultimately went a different direction.

Round 11, Pick 4: 1977 Lary Sorensen (role: long B)
Teammates: none

Was down to the final couple Sorensen owners and this version is decent enough to soak up some innings as a long reliever, plus with only 143 IP it was cheap. Cheaper and better...good combination.

Round 12, Pick 4: 1994 Chris Haney (role: mopup)
Teammates: none

I unfortunately waited too long on the cheap David West seasons. I'm also locked into one of two Doug Rau versions, which I don't really care between the two. I could take my Thurman Munson but I'm debating two options with him. Luckily, there's a cheap Haney left. He sucks and has no teammates, but he'll let me fit some other albatrosses in and keep my top teammates.

Round 13, auto: 1971 Thurman Munson (role: starting C)
Teammate: LF Bobby Murcer
Round 14, auto: 1994 David West (role: long B)
Teammates: none
Round 15, auto: 1977 Doug Rau (role: long B)
Teammates: none

Once alice took Munson, my last 3 players were auto-picks...I was the last one on each. For Rau, I had no choice, there was only one version left. For West, I had two. And for Munson, I had a few.

Munson was the most interesting decision. I had two choices: a better version of Munson and a worse OF teammate (probably Jim Rice or Springer) or a worse Munson but Bobby Murcer. Murcer fit better and it also allowed me to take the better version of West, which is usable. His 1971 season can lead off and has solid defense to go with a great OBP. I downgrade Munson's power, but still get A+ arm and similar on-base to his better but more expensive 1977 season. Given I'm likely going in a HR-suppressing park due to my pitching, I decided to go this route.

Ballpark: Three Rivers Stadium
I thought I'd go with a more negative-HR park, but going to play this one a little more neutral.
Rd Pick Yr Player Team Role Teammates
0 3 2017 Adam Eaton Washington Nationals Backup CF Max Scherzer (SP3)
1 3 2019 Gerrit Cole Houston Astros #2 SP Alex Bregman (3B) Justin Verlander (SP1) Zach Greinke (SP4)
2 7 2020 Christian Yelich Milwaukee Brewers Platoon RF Corbin Burnes (SU) Devin Williams (CL)
3 7 1970 Johnny Roseboro Washington Senators Backup C
4 4 1970 Pete Ward New York Yankees Bat Boy
5 2 1964 Tony Conigliaro Boston Red Sox Platoon RF
6 2 2017 Jose Abreu Chicago White Sox Starting 1B
7 4 2019 Matt Harvey Los Angeles Angels Mop Up Mike Trout (CF)
8 3 2021 Javier Baez Chicago Cubs Platoon SS/2B
9 4 2020 **** Hernandez Los Angeles Dodgers Utility Corey Seager (SS)
10 2 1978 Jerry Remy Boston Red Sox Platoon SS/2B
11 4 1977 Lary Sorensen Milwaukee Brewers Long B
12 4 1994 Chris Haney Kansas City Royals Mop Up
13 1971 Thurman Munson New York Yankees Starting C Bobby Murcer (LF)
14 1994 David West Philadelphia Phillies Long B
15 1977 Doug Rau Los Angeles Dodgers Long B
12/22/2021 5:22 PM
barracuda3

nice to see another yankee fan in new england. just read your write up... says alot for remy that two of us included comments about his work on here.
12/22/2021 5:51 PM
Posted by 3dayrotation on 12/22/2021 5:51:00 PM (view original):
barracuda3

nice to see another yankee fan in new england. just read your write up... says alot for remy that two of us included comments about his work on here.
Likewise. Remy will be missed.
12/22/2021 6:07 PM
barracuda3,

1. I changed my team name. I have no idea who Sir Denis is though.

2. I saw that Remy/Boggs combo staring at me, but I had Bregman. I at one point thought about shifting Bregman to SS, but went with Seager instead. I forget if I did that before or after Boggs came off the board.

3. Thanks for 77 Sorensen!
12/22/2021 9:00 PM
Ok here goes:


Nomination: I originally fired out the DeGrom pick early because he was the first I found. I like nominating good SPs with multiple good seasons so that I get value out of my #1 and so that other owners are enticed to spend early picks on my guy, thereby opening more opportunity for me to grab good season of other players. I remember having good luck with Marichal and Mathewson in the past. I typically don't pay a lot of attention to teammates early, instead focusing on getting good versions of nominated players. Later, when I saw the dearth of pitching among the nominations, I decided I had better check Degrom for any teammates I might be able to use. I found he had none and went back on the search, this time looking for two SPs on the same team. That lead me pretty quickly to the 2015 Dodgers and 2002 Red Sox. I can't remember if I found anyone on the Dodgers, but I did find Haney on the Sox. Haney gave me no value in himself, but he did net me an early draft pick.


Round 1: As I scanned the nomination list I noticed a handful of top notch SPs in Sutton, Arrieta, Koufax, Kershaw...and. bunch of crap pitchers as nominations. I decided I'd put together a top tier rotation with Pedro, Lowe, and a couple other top tiers if I could manage it. When Rau/Sutton went at #1, I was down to Arrieta, Koufax, or Greinke. There were plenty of Koufax's available and I like Arrieta more than Greinke, plus Arrieta came with a cheap Baez with usable AB's and kept me near the top of the draft. Plus I had a perfectly suitable Nomar thanks to Haney. I grabbed Arrieta here and planned on grabbling 65 Koufax next round...


Round 2: ..Until joe grabbed Yelich. Hmmm, Yelich...what's up with him? Have never used him so I scanned through his top seasons and saw that his 2019 season was likely THE top hitting season among hitters, so I bailed on Koufax for now to grab Yelich and headed toward the back of the pack. It became a trend that I'd look at who was picked just before me to inform my next pick. I still haven't done any deep research into any players yet.


Round 3: People don't seem to be grabbing the top SP teammates yet and I notice that Guidry is also out there. I can maybe wait on SP and continue to grab top hitting usable players - teammates be damned. Number 2 Abreu it is.


Round 4: I need to use SOME innings from these nominated players. I've decided I'm going to go all SPs and screw relievers. Rau and Sorenson offer usable SP seasons. So I grab 75 Rau who has nice performance history. Gonna grab Sorenson next...


Round 5: And I do. Opted for the 81 Sorenson with low BB and low HR. Looking over my pitchers so far I realize they are all pretty low HR throwers, and the Coles and all his teammates tend to give up HRs. At this point I decide I'm going to put this team in Yankee III and draft HR hitters where possible. I have a bombing Manny courtesy of Haney that I can stick in RF. At this point 65 Koufax is gone. Guidry still there. And a Kerhsaw...


Round 6: With 5 SPs locked down, and Guidry and I think a Kershaw still out there I return to picking good usable players. I grab the A+ $6M Eaton to play CF every day.


Round 7: And then finally grab Guidry. 6 SPs in Pedro, Lowe, Arrieta, Guidry, Lau, and Sorenson. Time to look at salary...


Round 8 ...and I'm-actually in salary trouble. Need to save everywhere I can. Manny is gonna round out my OF (thanks Haney) but both he and Yelich will need to be spelled defensively. So 71 Conigliaro gives me def replacement and low salary.


Round 9: Cheapest Ward saves $$ - beat the Ward rush


Round 10: Cheapest West available saves $$. Jumped on the West rush.


Round 11: Was gonna consider the 78 Remy but he's gone and I want Boggs. cuda and joe also both need a Remy. Time to grab Boggs.


Round 12: 17 Ki'ke gives me Jansen (I wind up not using him). He also gives me sneaky Brandon Morrow (my only reliever).


Round 13: cheapest Harvey saves money


Round 14: cheapest Roseboro same:


Round 15: cheapest Cole has Melancon.




Now to make salary work. I have one more teammate top use. A second RP (considering 2 among Jansen, Melancon, and Morrow) or a partial 2B to use instead of Remy when needed. Found Hiaru(sp?) on Yelich's team. He hits bombs. Morrow doesn't give up bombs. Let's Ride.


Batters:
C 78 Munson $5.2M
1B 14 Abreu $6.5M
2B 19 Hiura $2.7M / 83 Remy $3.0M/15 Baez $0.4M
3B 83 Boggs $7.4
SS 02 Nomar $6.2M
OF 19 Yelich $7.1M
OF 16 Eaton $6.4M
OF 02 ManRam $5.8M

$51.0M 5540 PA .312/.380/.497.

Staff:
78 Guidry $12.9M
02 Lowe $8.5M
02 Pedro $9.0M
15 Arrieta $12.0M
75 Rau $7.2M
81 Sorensen $5.3M
17 Morrow $2.0M

$56.9M 1446 IP 1.00 WHIP 0.46 HR -- don't know how to get ERC# for the team I've built.

I'll use some of conig 71 salary so maybe about $11M wasted? Now to read the 'cuda digest...
12/23/2021 8:23 PM
Inspirational write-up 'cuda! You give me far too much credit. I only stumbled upon Yelich because joe had just taken another version. At the end I briefly toyed around with taking Chance instead of Guidry and improving my one relief pitcher and my 2B spot starter, but that would only have been worth it if I could find an upgrade for my 2B, and I couldn't (after reading your write up I see that there were only a few 2Bs out there and I had missed them).

I am impressed with all the back work a bunch of you guys do to get ready for the draft. Really thoughtful stuff. Someday...
12/23/2021 11:22 PM
Posted by slainte on 12/23/2021 11:22:00 PM (view original):
Inspirational write-up 'cuda! You give me far too much credit. I only stumbled upon Yelich because joe had just taken another version. At the end I briefly toyed around with taking Chance instead of Guidry and improving my one relief pitcher and my 2B spot starter, but that would only have been worth it if I could find an upgrade for my 2B, and I couldn't (after reading your write up I see that there were only a few 2Bs out there and I had missed them).

I am impressed with all the back work a bunch of you guys do to get ready for the draft. Really thoughtful stuff. Someday...
You know, I kind of had that feeling. It kind of felt like if the first Yelich didn't go right before your pick one of them would've slipped to me. Oh well. Time to see what trying to have good pitching feels like, but I can't shake the feeling that it's going to feel like watching Koufax give up 60 homers.
12/24/2021 3:30 AM
I see what you did there...
12/24/2021 8:46 AM
I kind of felt good about my team until I saw slainte’s pitching staff…
12/24/2021 9:17 AM
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16x16 v30 Draft - AL (Draft Strategy Writeups) Topic

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