Quote: Originally Posted By snake_p on 1/05/2010Isn't it wonderful to draw conclusions from fractions of seasons? Well, maybe "conclusions" isn't the right word. Isn't wild speculation wonderful fun? There, that's better.

Cmon Snake. All this started right after the update. It was like a light switch to my team.

If you want to say lets see what happens over the long haul that is ok, pretending like we are all nuts isn't.

Quote: Originally Posted By swamphawk22 on 1/05/2010
Cmon Snake. All this wild hysteria started right after the update. It was like a light switch to my skull.
If you want to say lets see what happens over the long haul that is ok, pretending like we are all nuts isn't.

I don't have to pretend.

If you look at the world snapshot, you can see the effect it had throughout HBD. SLG is down 30 points across all worlds. This is due entirely to some home runs being changed to singles.

Quote: Originally Posted By kahrtmen on 1/05/2010If you look at the world snapshot, you can see the effect it had throughout HBD. SLG is down 30 points across all worlds. This is due entirely to some home runs being changed to singles

You understand that SLG is based on total bases from hits, right. And that if home runs are turning into doubles and triples (and not just singles), that total bases will go down, which in turn means that SLG goes down.

It's a bit misleading to say that home runs are only turning into singles, because it simply is not true.

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Quote: Originally Posted By kahrtmen on 1/05/2010
I think it is true. 1b/g is up by 35%. 2b/g and 3b/g are the same. HR/g are down 35%.

It's easy to calculate SLG: (1b+2b+2*3b+3*hr)/AB

The only thing that is changing in that equation is the number of 1b and HR. Everything else is identical. It is possible that the home runs are becoming 2b and 3b and the 2b and 3b are becoming 1b, but the net effect is the same. If you compare the stats before the update and after, the only significant difference is an increase in singles and a decrease in HR.

Two interesting things in your post ...

You might want to take a second look at your formula.

If you want to cling to your hypothesis no matter what, say things like "It is possible that the home runs are becoming 2b and 3b and the 2b and 3b are becoming 1b, but the net effect is the same" to simply dismiss something that would matter but you don't like, and maybe no one will notice.

Instead of 1b, it should be "Hits" at the beginning of the formula but that is probably what he meant.

Sorry, I meant to put H instead of 1B. My mistake.

I don't have an agenda one way or the other on this, so I am not trying to dismiss anything. I do find it unlikely that if HRs were becoming 2bs and 3bs and 2bs becoming 1b, that 2b and 3b rates would end up exactly where they started. As I said in my post, the net effect is the same.

I find it unlikely that they even know what really is going on. they know HRs are down, and that is what they wanted. The rest of it they won't concern themselves with until enough people send tickets complaining about that, then they'll come up with some quick fix for that too without considering any of the other things it might affect. Then the process repeats itself again. That's the way it's always been, that's the way it will likely continue to be.