here's an idea-- tie in ability to run a slowdown to IQs... if you are really good at your offense, you'll run it til there's 5-10 seconds on the shot clock a good % of the time (say 75% of non-steal possessions that result in a shot or foul).

If your IQs are so-so, this will happen 60% of the time.

If they are bad (Cs to B-s), 45-50%.

Not to have this cause more TOs or bad possessions, but just more possessions in which your team's ability to run its offense correctly for 25+ seconds is dependent on IQ. And if you are all A+s across the board, you run it really well (which is how all teams seem to right now).

now that's an excellent idea

wronoj is on to something, me thinks it's good

don't see why you couldn't do the same thing for uptempo...

higher IQs lead to more good shots quick (say, <15 seconds), vs lower IQs = more over DTs, or more that take a little more time (15-25 secs), or more TOs (presumably already part of the programming for uptempo and slowdown).

I have data for my DII teams the current phelan and allen seasons. In Allen I've got 64 poss per game with a std dev of 6.4. In Phelan I've got 63.5 poss per game with a std dev of 6.8.

So going off of jdtapp's real life poss data it looks like the std dev is way off but the poss are about right. Which also lines up with what twjared is saying.

FWIW, I go normal like 90+ percent of the time. My Allen team is stacked so I face slowdown about 20% of the time. My Phelan team is average.

WRT the HD numbers, not many teams in real life play a slowdown for the entire game, so you would expect less positions if it happens.

I have no issues with what wronoj suggests for both uptempo and slowdown ... in fact I think it is a great idea. That said, I also don't think 10% less than average for positions is bad if a team plays slowdown.

The problem in HD is that there is no consequence on the offensive end to going slowdown vs uptempo since both result in the same quality of shot. This is a huge flaw.

It makes no sense that a team going slowdown would get the same quality shot as a team that attempts to run a fastbreak and then set the offense up.

Make an uptempo offense more succesfull and you get a more realistic result.

Quote: Originally Posted By jdno on 7/05/2009

Quote: Originally posted by mullycj on 7/05/2009
I guess 3 Part Question.

What is average # of possessions in DI NCAA game?

What is average # of possessions in HD game (normal tempo)?

What is average # of possessions in HD game (slow vs slow tempo)?

In Rupp, I run slowdown/Triangle nearly every game (except vs. the worst SIMs). And it looks like a slowdown vs. slowdown game will lead to ~50 possessions based on my 3 games this season where it occurred. Even when my opponent went uptempo, we still only had ~57 possessions/game, which is just a tad higher than what the season average was for my games. Excluding OT games, the highest # of possessions in a game was 64, and ironically it occurred when my opponent went slowdown and I ran normal.

I do generally agree that HD skews things in favor of the slowdown team a bit moreso than in RL

Bump - a season later in normal tempo vs slow down games Im still seeing number of possessions at around 50 per team. Definitely an issue with HD that effects score/upset variability.

won a slowdown-slowdown NT game last night 37-34. ugh.

Quote: Originally Posted By mullycj on 7/05/2009
My game last night (which made me think about this because it seemed to go by in a flash) we had about 52 possessions. We played uptempo while opponent played slow tempo.

Our 1st conference loss vs slow tempo. Uptempo vs slow tempo yielded about 56 possessions. Blink your eyes and the half is 50% over already.

Quote: Originally Posted By mullycj on 7/05/2009
My game last night (which made me think about this because it seemed to go by in a flash) we had about 52 possessions. We played uptempo while opponent played slow tempo.

Our 1st conference loss vs slow tempo. Uptempo vs slow tempo yielded about 56 possessions. Blink your eyes and the half is 50% over already.

mully / anyone - in a slowdown vs slowdown, what is an appropriate score, I guess based off of real life? Fast vs fast? normal vs normal? I am thinking 51-50, 71-70, and 91-90???

I wonder what our math guys would say normal variability is in a 51-50 game for score? A week or two ago, I wrote a ticket up after a 27-24 game, was told by CS that the score was due to poor shooting, not slowdown.

I made some sort of incredulous reply, to which the second answer was I forwarded your comment to the engine development team.

I wonder if CS has a sign 'engine development team' on their trash can?

40 minute game, 30 sec each per possession equals 40 touches each. 15 sec per team per touch, equals 80 touches per game. The game I looked at that was 27-24 - there were just a ridiculous number of 33 / 34 second possessions for each team.

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=5042003

Slow vs Slow

28-29 final score

OR - I try to not look at score because that brings other engine problems/issues/factors.

# of possessions is where HD is way off mark. jdtapp found some nice info on the 1st page. I've found that many games (not just slow vs slow, but also slow vs fast) yield a # of possessions which were fewer than the lowest team in DI (Denver).

This seems like a simple fix that HD has done nothing about yet.