Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 11/16/2009
Lol, no, a player doesn't "struggle" with too low a distro. It may be that it's keeping his sample size down and thus more likely to produce variant results, but simply having less distro can not cause a player to "struggle".

Disagree!!!

Every player I've had with very low distribution has struggled to get more than 10 ppg!

Distro can absolutley affect fg%. If it is to high the player may force shots so how is this untrue? If its to low then he may pass up open shots there is a happy medium. The computer does not say player A only shoots only when he can make half his shots. the shot attempts are based on the distro % and if those shot attempts coem with the flow of the game in a good way he will make more or less.

I didn't say that distro couldn't effect fg%. I said that lowering a player's distro in and of itself could not cause a player to struggle. And it can't.

This has been a much more interesting discussion than I imagined. Thanks guys.

To maybe take it one step further. Same team .... opposite question. Is Dennis Beasley really this good. He was signed in a season where I missed the first three days of recruiting and I had almost immediate regrets. But he's 34 for 66 from three point range over two seasons in limited minutes. I think this guy is pretty awful. He's got an ok perimeter rating for D3 but everything else is quite terrible. Little speed, poor ball handling, zero athleticism. But he's been quite good is a small sample size that isn't that small anymore.

On the 1st player, I'd set his 3pt to -2, boost his distro up and laugh all the way into the NT. He's a .500 FG% guy as a drive / dish player.

As for the 2nd player, his per is solid for D3 and he logs a lot of minutes against backups. I'd assume his distro is pretty low, so he's likely just getting good looks in the offense. Add in a small amount of RNG love and you have the stats you see.

Quote: Originally Posted By kujayhawk on 11/15/2009I want to preface this by saying I was never expecting a superstar out of this D3 player. I know he's not good. I did not expect that he would be anything close to an offensive force -- in fact my preseason expectations were that he'd be darn close to a neutral presence on the court and it wouldn't have shocked me if he was a slight liability.

The point of this thread isn't (really) to complain. I'm hoping that the veteran and/or more mathematically inclined coaches can help me in figuring out if I'm the victim of a small sample size or if I need to give this guy the immediate red light when it comes to shooting the rock.

James Huebner started amazingly cold for me and I thought it would be a sample size issue. As a junior starter he shot 37.7% from threes and 44.9% from the field. He wasn't anything close to being a main scoring option but he held his own as a junior.

Well that cold start hasn't shown much sign of thawing. Right now he is shooting 15.8% from threes and 32.6% from the field. That includes a nice game against the -5 defense. Throw that game out of the mix and in the other 13 games he is shooting 9.1% from threes and 30.5% from the field.

Right now in the D3 world, he's the worst perimeter shooter. And that's by going through the entire world and looking for the terrible shooters. I'm not exaggerating that he's the worst right now. (There are three other players who match his numbers but they are Sim AI players who have perimeter ratings of 17 or worse; I'm not counting those.)

I'm well aware that his 38 perimeter rating should not lead to a good shooter. But I just didn't expect one this bad. There are dozens of guards with similar ratings who are shooting quite well. And very few of those have the speed, athleticism, and ball handling of my player. There are a lot of 40 speed, 40 perimeter, 40 ball handling guards that are shooting twice as well as my player.

In my mind the sample size is getting way too high to justify him shooting the ball still. At the same time I'm really struggling with a bunch of way inferior players shooting the ball perfectly fine. And if I have him stop shooting it obviously makes my team a lot easier to gameplan against.

Thoughts? Am I making way too much out of a small sample size? Or are the results of 14 games too much to ignore

They won't stop him in D3, don't be afraid to play to your strengths.

KU, meet Charles Petitt!