On the bubble? Topic

acn24
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Quote: Originally Posted By coach_billyg on 12/01/2009
Quote: Originally posted by acn24 on 12/01/2009
Ranking has very little to do with getting into the tournament, but it can help with your seeding. You're on the bubble because of an RPI in the low 50s and the fact that you haven't beaten a decent team on the road.

win-loss record has a very significant impact on both tourney seeding and rankings. so, rankings are not useless in predicting if you will make the tourney.

to the OP, you are probably in because of your record. but not necc with a bad loss in the CT. if you look at your schedule, the w-l record of your opponents, which is 50% of you rpi (not exactly, as 50% is the weighted w-l of your opponents, and the overall w-l does not include home or away), its pretty bad. most have losing records, all in all, you are probably a little under 50% there. which is not going to do your rpi any favors. you probably want to get in a conference that is not so horrible, if you are looking for a high rpi in d1
I'm not sure I totally follow you here. I'm not disputing that w-l is a factor, certainly he has a better shot at an at large than if he were in a BCS school and was 15-12 with an RPI in the high-50s. I only said that the ranking had no impact, are you saying that 22-4 ranked #7 is more likely to get you in than 22-4, ranked #20 or 22-4, receiving votes?
12/1/2009 2:49 PM
professor17
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Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 12/01/2009
Then he shouldn't schedule the mid to low level bcs teams, go on the road play 5-6 big time schools.
Do you think his team was good enough for that, though? If he had done as you suggest and gone 1-5, do you think he'd be in better shape than he is now? I think his schedule was reasonably tough enough, given his team makeup, except that he played too many home games, and got burned by 3 humans departing, leaving him with Sim opponents.
12/1/2009 2:57 PM
jeffdrayer
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Of note, the Bubble Watch places watch_this's team as 39th -- significantly better than his 59 RPI, evidence that record, ranking, last 10, etc is playing a part in the decision. So while he is a bubble team -- only 30 teams are locks -- he is in far better shape than one might at first suspect.
12/1/2009 5:10 PM
zhawks
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Quote: Originally Posted By professor17 on 12/01/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 12/01/2009

Then he shouldn't schedule the mid to low level bcs teams, go on the road play 5-6 big time schools.

Do you think his team was good enough for that, though? If he had done as you suggest and gone 1-5, do you think he'd be in better shape than he is now? I think his schedule was reasonably tough enough, given his team makeup, except that he played too many home games, and got burned by 3 humans departing, leaving him with Sim opponents.
He could have scheduled to lose 5-6 games in OOC against the very top teams and still have had 20+ wins this season and a much better SOS, therefore a likely better RPI. Preferebly road games also.
12/1/2009 5:31 PM
jeffdrayer
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Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 12/01/2009How do you figure that? I only see 3 games against top 25 rpi teams. Just because you can game the rankings system doesn't mean you should be able to be a lock for the NT.
Quote:Originally Posted By zhawks on 12/01/2009He could have scheduled to lose 5-6 games in OOC against the very top teams and still have had 20+ wins this season and a much better SOS, therefore a likely better RPI. Preferebly road games also
So here's my question: how is this latter example *not* a case of "gaming" the system? If one argues that trying to play non-BCS teams with lots of wins but that you nevertheless think you can beat is "gaming," then scheduling to lose 6 road games against very top teams to improve your RPI is really accomplishing the exact same thing. True, maybe you can pull out a win against one of those teams. But it's all done with the same purpose in mind. In fact, every time you schedule an OOC game with the aim of increasing your RPI, technically, you're "gaming" the system. Just a thought.
12/1/2009 6:34 PM
zhawks
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Where you going somewhere with that jeff? Seemed like one big circle.
12/1/2009 7:11 PM
coach_billyg
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This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.
12/1/2009 7:24 PM
coach_billyg
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Quote: Originally posted by jeffdrayer on 12/01/2009
Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 12/01/2009How do you figure that? I only see 3 games against top 25 rpi teams. Just because you can game the rankings system doesn't mean you should be able to be a lock for the NT.
Quote:Originally Posted By zhawks on 12/01/2009He could have scheduled to lose 5-6 games in OOC against the very top teams and still have had 20+ wins this season and a much better SOS, therefore a likely better RPI. Preferebly road games also.
So here's my question: how is this latter example *not* a case of "gaming" the system?  If one argues that trying to play non-BCS teams with lots of wins but that you nevertheless think you can beat is "gaming," then scheduling to lose 6 road games against very top teams to improve your RPI is really accomplishing the exact same thing.  True, maybe you can pull out a win against one of those teams.  But it's all done with the same purpose in mind.  In fact, every time you schedule an OOC game with the aim of increasing your RPI, technically, you're "gaming" the system.  Just a thought.

he said gaming the rankings. not that there is a problem with it, just that its not that significant. can you game rpi with scheduling? damn right you can, but isn't that the objective?
12/1/2009 7:27 PM
coach_billyg
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i really meant isn't gaming the system the objective, not rpi... really you have different objectives, like maximizing your chance of winning the title, or how far you will make it in the NT on average, or how many wins you can get (when post season is out of the question or when HCA needs improvement).
12/1/2009 7:30 PM
zhawks
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That is what I thought gil, scheduling is a big part of the game, possibly the 2nd biggest thing behind recruiting - why wouldn't you do the best possible job scheduling to maximize your potential rpi?
12/1/2009 7:32 PM
siegel2
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It is all a balancing act--for example, while Billy G is right that there is danger in scheduling mid and low-level BCS schools, it is also the only opportunity you have to schedule road games against teams with RPI's in the top 100 but mediocre homecourt advantages.
12/1/2009 8:34 PM
jeffdrayer
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Gaming the rankings -- misread what you were saying there, z.
12/2/2009 9:29 AM
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