wrong on all accounts.

you should really refrain from trying to use numbers to demonstrate your point.

you realize the equivalent of "nu-uh" isn't a debate. That is just contradiction.

i don't care to debate you.

i'm politely informing you that you're wrong. this is fact.

also, you suck with numbers. this is just my opinion, though.

Quote: Originally posted by MikeT23 on 12/05/2009Actually, bad math aside, there are two things that really make a difference.1.  Match-ups.   Who you play is much more important than their seeding.  Some teams don't match-up well.  2.  I'm pretty sure it's been proven several times that the #1 seed wins more WS than the #2 seed.   If you take that into account, I think the #1 seed is what you want.

Your second point might have something to do with #1 seeds having the best regular season record and are usually the best team

However, this says nothing about whether or not the #2 seed is actually the seed that would provide, ceteris paribus, the best road to the WS

PeteC has not worked out the math to see if this is the case. The original poster has done an awful job trying to do just that.


Hail Hail PeteC!!! Dominator of HD, HBD, and the female dog known as MikeT!!!

Quote: Originally posted by TheJester74 on 12/06/2009you realize the equivalent of "nu-uh" isn't a debate. That is just contradiction.

PeteC and like-minded individuals do not debate special needs kids. We just say "nu-uh" and move on to real people.

Go take a class on statistics and come back.

Hail Hail PeteC!!

Quote: Originally Posted By TheJester74 on 12/05/2009while your argument is not lacking hyperbole it is lacking any depth of analysis deanrod.

You treat both probable and highly improbable events as though each were equally probable. That is simply false.

There, no hyperbole, simple fact. Your argument was nonsense.

snake gets it.

and there are a handful of other f*ckups made by the jester.

Those were some big numbers for you fellows to handle. Let's try simple word problems.

The highest true seed a #2 playoff seed can face in the second round is the #3 true seed. They have a 0% chance of playing a #2 seed in the second round.

The highest true seed a #1 playoff seed can face is #2 true seed - which is higher seed than the #2 playoff seed could possibly face. (This would happen if the team with the second highest W/L record is in the same division as the #1 seed)

If the third best team comes from either the two divisions that the #1 or #2 seed are in they become the #5 playoff seed and are in the #1 seed half of the bracket, meaning the #1 seed again gets the poorer draw.

yes, everyone gets that.

but your numbers are way off. you're like a retarded 9 year old trying to tell the LA Lakers how to dribble a basketball.

jester, what he's saying is that your theory has merit. your attempt to prove it failed. Doesn't mean its still not a valid theory. I, for one, agree with your premise.

Ok. This is what Jester is trying (and failing miserably) to do:

There is a 3/15ths chance that the team with the second best record is in the same division as the team with the best record - 15 remaining teams and 3 in the specific division - or a .200 probability. For the 3 times out of 15 that happens, there is a 2/14ths chance that the third best team is in their division as well, or a .143 probability. Multiplying .200 times .143 to get the probability of all three being in the same division we get a .029 chance - roughly once in 34.5 seasons, or 2.9 times per hundred seasons.

This is the correct way to run the odds. Do that for every scenario and you'll have your answer jester.

Well, since you did the math, I think WifS should look at fixing this. I'm in season 14 in a world. If I had the top seed every season(and I haven't), I could very well be playing the true #2 sometime in the next 20 or so seasons. So, sometime in the next 5 calendar years, if I can have the best team every HBD season, I'm gonna get screwed.

THAT'S NOT FAIR!!!!!

I think this premise assumes that the #1 seed can get out of the first round.

Which my teams, apparently, cannot do when they are #1 seeds.

Quote: Originally Posted By deanod on 12/06/2009snake gets it. [of course]

and there are a handful of other f*ckups made by the jester.

That won't slow him down. This is not the time for him to stop and think rationally.

In the end this theory of yours blows. #1 seeds win more WS than #2 seeds.