is figuring out the difference between high/high and just high worth the cost? not clear to me that knowing whether a guy will go up 20 points or 30 points is more useful than another $500 to recruit with

mets, that depends on the level of the rating and the level you're at-- I recruited a guy at NC State with 40-odd LP but High, and it certainly mattered there whether he was High or High-High. Just the possibility that it could get above 70 instead of stuck in the mid-60s matters.

At d3 it might matter less depending on other skills, or it might matter more in choosing between 2 nearly equal players.

Posted by metsmax on 12/5/2010 9:35:00 AM (view original):
is figuring out the difference between high/high and just high worth the cost? not clear to me that knowing whether a guy will go up 20 points or 30 points is more useful than another $500 to recruit with

high-high isn't 30, its 30+. The "plus" is the thing. The difference between 20 and 30 might not be worth determining, but you never know how high that 30+ actually is. I've got 1 HH category for a player that has gone up like 55 points...

Paul davis started his freshman year under forty in perimeter, but had "High High" potential there.

Which attribute is it that "getting beat off the dribble"  refers to?  The message is:  "easily gets beat off the dribble but with our coaching I expect stellar improvement" or somesuch.  It's not SPD, because there is another line in the same scouting report for that.  Is it DEF? 

Well:  It would not be DEF....

And its not BH...

Have it coexisting with both of those in scouting reports.

Posted by a_in_the_b on 12/5/2010 9:27:00 PM (view original):
Well:  It would not be DEF....

And its not BH...

Have it coexisting with both of those in scouting reports.

It coexisted with the one mentioning "quickness" in mine, which I thought was SPD. 

Sounds like speed to me. but could also be def. Definitely not bh since it's talking about him getting beat off the dribble. 

Posted by cthomas22255 on 12/5/2010 8:42:00 PM (view original):
Which attribute is it that "getting beat off the dribble"  refers to?  The message is:  "easily gets beat off the dribble but with our coaching I expect stellar improvement" or somesuch.  It's not SPD, because there is another line in the same scouting report for that.  Is it DEF? 

This is definitely speed.

Posted by srunstro on 1/26/2010 3:21:00 PM (view original):
Ok, maybe I shouldn't have questioned Iguana.

I just looked through all the evals in my inbox and I don't see any additional responses for RB.

I'm still not completely convinced that there are only five, but the evidence suggests it. Perhaps I've been confused because there are 5 for each rating.

I guess 5 does make some sense too - high-high, high-normal, normal, low-normal, low-low.

That would mean that high-normal basically means "around 20" and low-normal means "around 5."

Then, if you combine it with the FSS ratings, you actually get 7 different categories. For example, high-normal eval + high FSS means 21-25, while high-normal eval + normal FSS means 16-20.

That would give you rough ranges of something like:

• 0-2: Low FSS, " I don't see any upside here."
• 3-5: Low FSS, "probably not going to see much improvement."
• 6-10: Average FSS, "probably not going to see much improvement."
• 11-15: Average FSS, "good upside if he works at it."
• 16-20: Average FSS "based on my experience, he can still improve substantially if we work with him and he's willing."
• 21-30: High FSS, "based on my experience, he can still improve substantially if we work with him and he's willing."
• 30+: High FSS, "there's no reason to NOT expect HUGE improvement here."
  

Does that seem about right to people?

Ok, I've overthought this enough for one day.

I think this is a bit mistaken.

there are 3 categories of potential, low, medium, high. there are 5 sub categories - low low, high low, medium, low high, and high high. the low and high subsets exactly overlap the low and high base potentials. so, in the end, there are 5 breakdowns - not 7 - the evals give you 100% of the information available to you (caveat - ignore the player thoughts email for now, as you don't get it in recruiting anyway).

i have confirmed the above with CS about three months after potential came out. they had said 9 categories were coming, when that was clearly not true i started keeping track and presented them the above information, which they verified was correct.

unverified are the breakdowns of potential, but they are basically:
0-5 low
6-19 normal
20+ high
this is to the point of the capped message, at which time, often 1 point remains

the  subcategories are
0-1 low low
2-5 high low
6-19 medium
20-27 low high
28+ high high

Posted by metsmax on 12/5/2010 9:35:00 AM (view original):
is figuring out the difference between high/high and just high worth the cost? not clear to me that knowing whether a guy will go up 20 points or 30 points is more useful than another $500 to recruit with

at d1, often there is no time for this. at the lower levels, to me, finding the high-high potentials is what separates the top 10 team from the national champion.

Going to make 1 minor correction to what billyg said, normal is actually 6-20 and high is 21+. I'm saying this because you will never see anybody with an 80 rating be high. Normal is the hardest to predict I used to go with the notion that if somebody was normal in an area that is essential to their position, ie., passing for a PG or rebounding for a big then they would be on the higher side of normal. However after having a PG improve 6 in passing and a big do the same in rebounding I know that's not true and it's a real crapshoot with normal potential. The difference between 6 point improvement and 20 is immense, that could be the difference between a 66 per guy who is somebody you might set to -1 vs. a guy who is an 80 per and you might set to +1.

bump

Someone, I think it was Weena, gave me this tip for evaluating guys when I was first starting out. Looking over the responses on the first page, it seems to work pretty well most of the time (except for sky's the limit - are we sure that is high-high?).

Look for *asterisks* or ALL CAPS - those are the high-high indicators.

I collated all this into one chart that I open when reviewing evals and plotting my player projections. Here's a link via tinyurl:  http://preview.tinyurl.com/2eljoyu