A strikeout is the best out with runners on. No chance for a fielder to screw it up. Not that I've ever worried about such a thing but, if I were looking at stats and my concern was IRS%, I'd try high velocity pitchers.

Not sure that's sound advice for HBD but it's how I'd play it in the real world.

I'd look equally at GB/FB and velocity. With runners on, I'd think a strikeout is the best outcome, followed closely by a ground ball. But then you get into defense...

Quote: Originally Posted By soxfan121 on 2/10/2010iain has bingo....with one strong caveat (already mentioned, but worth repeating)

Any RP has a small sample size and statistical performance can fluctuate wildly from year to year, with no real difference in ability or, even, individual appearances. On 0.1 4R 4ER outing can skew a guy's stats for an entire season.

And because your best RP have the lowest pull rating, the occasional beatdown will happen.

Good point. If you want to be sure, vet RPs are the best way to have a few 100 IPs to judge effectiveness, and they're typically pretty cheap in FA while people fight over the stars.

I've heard some people float the theory that having higher rater pitches play a bigger part in getting a good RP than SP (perhaps being slightly more important than splits for a RP...but splits would be slightly more important than pitches for a SP). Does anyone suscribe to that theory, and if so, why? I can't figure out why that would be the case...but I have struggled with some relievers that had great control and splits...but so so pitches.

Quote: Originally Posted By wilhitec on 2/10/2010
I've heard some people float the theory that having higher rater pitches play a bigger part in getting a good RP than SP (perhaps being slightly more important than splits for a RP...but splits would be slightly more important than pitches for a SP). Does anyone suscribe to that theory, and if so, why? I can't figure out why that would be the case...but I have struggled with some relievers that had great control and splits...but so so pitches.

This is just a theory, but perhaps better pitches = less HR, better splits = lower OAV. SPs can (sometimes) get away with giving up a bunch of bombs, if they hold opponents to a low OBP and give up a lot of solo shots and 2-run HRs. RPs (who are inheriting runners, and who, in the case of closers especially but also SuA and LRA types, are generally coming into tight games) can't give up HRs.

It has been mentioned that SPs can be more easily measured by statistics than RPs, b/c of small sample size. But additionally, SPs always start with a 0-0 game at the top of the order and their success is numerical to a large extent, because the numbers indicate what kind of chance your starter is giving you to win. Relief pitching success is measured much more situationally. If my SuA comes in with the bases loaded, 2 outs, and a 5-3 lead, then his sucess is measured by getting out of the inning with the lead, period. If a SP opens the game by giving up a HR and then retires the next 9 batters, that's a good start to his outing. If my SuA come in in this situation and gives up an immediate HR, then retires the next 9 batters and we lose 7-6, then my SuA failed completely.

With respect to inherited runners, it's true that a flyout or groundout has the potential to score a run with a man on third and fewer than 2 out. A strikeout, barring some wierd catcher mistake, does not.

On the flip side, however, a GB with a man on first also has the chance of a double-play, thereby ending the inning after facing only one batter if there was already one out, or at least getting 2/3 of the way there if no one was out yet. A strikeout doesn't offer the same potential, so the RP would have to get 2 guys out (or 3) rather than just 1 (or 2).

I haven't crunched any numbers on it, but my gut (as someone who relies heavily on D) would be I'd rather have the GB pitcher come in as RP with men on instead of the K pitcher (effectiveness otherwise being equal).

In any event, there are enough considerations in support of either side that I'd have to agree with those who suggest you just "get good pitchers" and let things like IRS work themselves out.

Quote: Originally Posted By gjello10 on 2/10/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By wilhitec on 2/10/2010
I've heard some people float the theory that having higher rater pitches play a bigger part in getting a good RP than SP (perhaps being slightly more important than splits for a RP...but splits would be slightly more important than pitches for a SP). Does anyone suscribe to that theory, and if so, why? I can't figure out why that would be the case...but I have struggled with some relievers that had great control and splits...but so so pitches.

This is just a theory, but perhaps better pitches = less HR, better splits = lower OAV. SPs can (sometimes) get away with giving up a bunch of bombs, if they hold opponents to a low OBP and give up a lot of solo shots and 2-run HRs. RPs (who are inheriting runners, and who, in the case of closers especially but also SuA and LRA types, are generally coming into tight games) can't give up HRs.

It has been mentioned that SPs can be more easily measured by statistics than RPs, b/c of small sample size. But additionally, SPs always start with a 0-0 game at the top of the order and their success is numerical to a large extent, because the numbers indicate what kind of chance your starter is giving you to win. Relief pitching success is measured much more situationally. If my SuA comes in with the bases loaded, 2 outs, and a 5-3 lead, then his sucess is measured by getting out of the inning with the lead, period. If a SP opens the game by giving up a HR and then retires the next 9 batters, that's a good start to his outing. If my SuA come in in this situation and gives up an immediate HR, then retires the next 9 batters and we lose 7-6, then my SuA failed completely.

I like some of your theory's there gjello...but has it ever been said that better pitches reduce HR's vs. better splits???

Some have suggested it... I suspect it to be correct (albeit way overly simplistic).

I agree with Mike -- high velocity RPs, if they have excellent control, will rack up the Ks and generally have more success.