Quote: Originally Posted By oldave on 5/30/2010
i think in the end HD is more akin to poker than a coinflip.

the average poker player (or even the normally good poker player who hits a cold streak) thinks thaat poker is a game of chance and while good decisions can help your odds, ultimately it comes down to "either you get th cards or you don't"

The great poker players have come to understand that they must exploit every small advantage that exists, and when you add these little advantages up over a period of time, the same great players will win more often than they lose.

To me, OR, LM, etc have proven that HD is like that. Sometimes it does seem they have cheat codes as they continue to win despite having players that that are often no better (and sometimes worse) than their opponent's. But OR has told me many times that his sucess is the cumulative effect of small advantages... and i think I believe him.

Quote: Originally Posted By oldave on 5/30/2010
i think in the end HD is more akin to poker than a coinflip.

the average poker player (or even the normally good poker player who hits a cold streak) thinks thaat poker is a game of chance and while good decisions can help your odds, ultimately it comes down to "either you get th cards or you don't"

The great poker players have come to understand that they must exploit every small advantage that exists, and when you add these little advantages up over a period of time, the same great players will win more often than they lose.

To me, OR, LM, etc have proven that HD is like that. Sometimes it does seem they have cheat codes as they continue to win despite having players that that are often no better (and sometimes worse) than their opponent's. But OR has told me many times that his sucess is the cumulative effect of small advantages... and i think I believe him.

Quote: Originally Posted By vandydave on 5/30/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By oldave on 5/30/2010

3-4 years ago when the game last had big changes certain coaches were on the cutting edge of those changes, made it to the elite jobs before anyone else, then the game stayed the same and those coaches have been able to stay there.





VD, that may explain some of the "pretty good" coaches, who are consistently in the top25 and win a couple of NCs. Im not *sure* that it explains thier success, but it may.

However, IMO, your explanation does not fit for the trulyelite coaches.

Im not going to get back into the debate of who is elite. but one case i KNOW of is OR in tark. when you try to use te VD explanation, you find that there are at least a dozen and maybe closer to 20 coaches in tark who were standing toe to toe with him and had all the same advantages he did (and most of these dudes are prett doggone smart fellas) and then he just kicked ourasses nearly every year. granted, he may have had a talent advnatage for two or three of his tiles, but in the majority of his title years his team did not appear to be any better than 10-15 other teams.

therefore, it seems to me that OR found and exploited numerous small advantages, most of them in gameplay or possibly "team chemistry". maybe others have found a few of these little advantages, but OR , it appears, has found waaay more than anyone else and so he has reached a point where he can beat your'n with his'n and can also beat his'n with your'n.

anyways... thats the way i see it