New Engine - D1 HCA Topic

cthomas22255
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Phelan D1. 4-0 Home. 12-2 Road.
6/10/2010 2:22 PM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By Rails on 6/10/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By oldresorter on 6/10/2010

Quote: Originally posted by wisefella99 on 6/10/2010

About a year ago, I was pretty ticked off at the HCA and looked at about 8-10 years of data comparing the real Big East to the one in Crum.

To my disappointment, WIS got it pretty close and I did not really have anything to complain about.

I guess at some point, I will have to do another comparison for the new engine.

However, it seems that people are not so much complaining about winning at home and losing on the road as they are complaining about the massive point swings.

both real life and HD in terms of HCA are wrong for the following conflicting reasons

1 - in HD, top d1 coaches play sim teams on the road to pull up their RPI, hence this weakens the overalll home winning %

2 - in real life, top d1 coaches play bad teams at home in order to guarantee wins, which pulls up the RPI as best they can, hence this strenthens the overall home winning %'s

Bo ryan's badgers make uwgb play 5 times at madison to each road visit at gb, it is under contract, last year at gb, gb won by the way - but not by 50 pts, by a handful
That is why comparing conference W/L records is more relavant. Can't believe Ryan even has a job anymore
Rails, can't we all just get along? And unite behind a common purpose? Like, say ... rooting for Izzo to go to the Cavs? Are you with me, brother?
6/10/2010 2:26 PM
oldave
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I am 10-1 at home, and 6-8 away.

To the folks who say hca should be a big advantage, i dont totally disagree... but there has to be some point where you say "woah, nellie... we need to rein this thing in a bit" ...doesnt there?

I think we are at that point.

In tark we have almost completed the reg season. early in the season, hca seemed to be screwed up, but it was hard to say for sure, as you are only playing teams once. now that we have nearly finished the conf season and have played 4 or 5 teams twice... the evidence is, to me, oerwheleming.

Syracuse -16-9 22rpi - 20sos HOME ROAD DIFF

StJohns 14-11 46rpi - 8sos Won87-58 Lost84-93 38

Uconn 19-6 10rpi - 24sos Won90-66 Lost64-89 49

SetonHall 3-23 201rpi -11sos Won117-43 Won105-71 40

Villanova 10-15 58rpi - 1 sos Won103-64 Lost67-75 47

Georgetown 18-7 17rpi - 27sos ???? Lost58-91 ??



the Gtown game is being played as we speak. At the risk of jinxing myself, I think the cuse will win by 8 to 10 points, give or take a few. As you can see things have been pretty consistent for me and that equates to about a 22 pont hca. Now, i realize that this is a really small sample size and maybe things will even out in the long run and hca ill turn out to be much lower.

But, while we are on the subject... can we all agree that if it turns out that the new engine (or some other cause) is resulting in a 20+ point hca, that is too much and is a problem that should be corrected?

And also... what do you think is an appropriate hca for Hoops Dynasty?

  • 4? (I have two sources that say real life HCA is about 4)
  • 8? (I like 8... seems like a good comprimise)
  • 12? (too high for me, but would be a vast improvement over what I am currently seeing)
  • 20+? (this is what i think it is right now in tarkD1 big East)
6/10/2010 2:52 PM
dalter
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oldave, not sure if you saw my post in another thread, but I looked at all the RL games in the Big Ten and BEast last season.

There was not a single instance where NT teams played each other more than once and had a point differential of more than 22 points. There were only two instances of over 20 pts, and one involved Ohio State w. out Evan Turner.

Your Cuse team alone has already had four instances of a swing of 36 points or more.

The bottom line is that something that you would never see happen in the real Big East happens with alarming regularity in the HD Big East. Not good.
6/10/2010 3:15 PM
kannc6
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Just a comment: The only way to accurately judge this is using conference games only. There is to much strategic scheduling on noncon games to make those numbers make sense..I routinely schedule BCS teams home and home and smaller schools away only.
6/10/2010 4:11 PM
oldave
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Quote: Originally Posted By kannc6 on 6/10/2010Just a comment: The only way to accurately judge this is using conference games only. There is to much strategic scheduling on noncon games to make those numbers make sense..I routinely schedule BCS teams home and home and smaller schools away only.
agreed
6/10/2010 4:43 PM
oldave
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and even better yet, why not look at just divisional games where each "home and home" can give you a self contained data set?

obviously one schools divisional games are not a big enough sample size t draw conclusions on, but if we put a bunch of them together, then maybewe could learn something
6/10/2010 4:46 PM
oldave
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Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 6/10/2010
oldave, not sure if you saw my post in another thread, but I looked at all the RL games in the Big Ten and BEast last season.

There was not a single instance where NT teams played each other more than once and had a point differential of more than 22 points. There were only two instances of over 20 pts, and one involved Ohio State w. out Evan Turner.

Your Cuse team alone has already had four instances of a swing of 36 points or more.

The bottom line is that something that you would never see happen in the real Big East happens with alarming regularity in the HD Big East. Not good.



and its not just me. OR and sully have also had several extreme pairings. the 40-50 pt swing was probably more common in big east -tark than the 10pt swing.

wait. are we agreeing again?
6/10/2010 4:49 PM
oldresorter
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the open ticket I have with seble on this issue had a fair amount of back and forth on this subject today, after several days of silence, my opinion strictly, he understands the issue(s) pretty well, and will fix them - again - everyone needs to understand, there will be more, and these forums are the places to get this info out in the open so he has adequate information to address them in a timely manner, this issue was handled pretty well on the boards, seble and I even discussed the 'flamers' and 'apologists' on the main board a bit, you guys are NOT doing him any favors by trying to stop the dialog - again - my opinions - the truth is in the doing which we have yet to see - keep your fingers crossed
6/10/2010 5:09 PM
reinsel
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Yeah, I think this issue especially takes some time, to get home/away games between the same teams to analyze, and see if other changes affect his, etc.
6/10/2010 5:13 PM
blaank182
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8-0, 4-2
6/10/2010 6:31 PM
car_crazy_v2
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At DII Crum

5-1, 0-4
6/10/2010 6:44 PM
westcoast22
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Maybe the entire issue of HCA is the big spreads between wins and losses. I dont this whole topic would calm a bit if it wasnt a 25 pt win at home and then a 25 pt loss on the road.
6/10/2010 6:45 PM
pitino27
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Perhaps the scale could be 0pts for an F 2 for a D range, 4 for a C range, 6 for a B range, 7 for A-, 8 for A, 9 for A+... Or tweaked even further down with F and D range being possibly negatives?
6/11/2010 12:20 AM
dalter
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HCA in real life is worth about four points.
6/11/2010 12:27 AM
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