Recruiting Case Study: The power of SVs/Reputation Topic

Posted by rockafe11a on 11/1/2010 12:43:00 AM (view original):
I think SVs are more valuable than what you have them down for. Still less than a home visit of course, but I think a little more than .15. I know i've heard a few coaches who have had alot of success in HD say they are great for recruiting, and not just for pulldowns.
they are fantastic for recruiting because of the information you gather, and for pulldowns. considering credit wise, at all distances, evals are not the most valuable tool. but they are not worthless, as many make them out to be.
11/1/2010 1:55 AM
Posted by mini31 on 10/31/2010 8:21:00 PM (view original):
i am curious to know how much reputation is worth also, i just cut a player to sign another one and my rep dropped from A to B
its slight, not sure exactly what i would put it at, but its not something i would worry about.
11/1/2010 1:56 AM
without seeing tkimble's list of efforts, its hard to say, but i would guess considering credit is a factor with a lot of the winner's credit coming in early
11/1/2010 1:58 AM
Posted by reinsel on 10/31/2010 11:26:00 PM (view original):
Am I the only one who thinks the value of prestige is different at D3 and D1?  At D1, I think the A+ team would have won for sure. 
Absolutely.
11/1/2010 7:12 AM
Posted by tkimble on 11/1/2010 12:23:00 AM (view original):
Hmmmm pump in your sitemail you said 3 HVs and 1 CV, but in that history it looks like 2 HVs and 2 CVs.  So let's do some math...
Working with these general assumptions: 1 CV=2.5 HV  Start=2 HV  Every 5 min increment= 1/2 HV, SV=1/10 HV, and taking a VERY conservative multiplier from A+ to B+ we'll make it 1.5.  I won't take into consideration the calls and such because I feel the have miniscule amount of value and an inordinate of calls/letters were not placed.

Pump's efforts in terms of HVs:
2 HVs=2
12 SVs=1.2
2 CVs=5
Start=2
15 min=1.5

Total:11.7

My efforts in terms of HVs:
6 HVs=9
1 SV=.15
1 CV=3.75
Start= 3
25 Min=2.5

Total: 18.4

So either some of those assumptions are WAYYYY off (I don't believe they are), the 11 calls+10 coach calls+8 letters account for more than 7 HVs, or my A- reputation has a ridiculously huge effect.  Anyway, I am still trying to figure it out.  A little bitter because I lost the guy (not a program changer and I only spent about a little more than 3k on the guy, so I'm not devasted), but more just puzzled.  I sent in a ticket, so we'll see what they say.  
Way off.. Both evals and calls have a lot of value and you are not giving them enough. Also, in div III/Div II prestige doesn't mean squat. His calls/letter/coach calls amount to about an extra CV. His 6 extra evals is worth bout 1.5 or 2 cv. That gives him pretty much 5 cv.
11/1/2010 8:50 AM
intriguing to hear everyone say evals are worth so much more.  This was just the opposite last year. 
11/1/2010 9:47 AM
furry is just about right on.  

Once upon a time, the old admin said that if distance isn't a factor, the money/value ratio of all the recruiting tools is the same.

In my experience, that's pretty much true.  Just bring up a recruit 10 miles away from you and look at the prices - that will give you a pretty good idea of the relative value of each recruiting tool.

Of course, the values change a lot depending on distance, since the tools don't change price at the same rates, so knowing which to use at which distance gives you a significant advantage.


11/1/2010 10:07 AM
So here is my rough guess. 

ASSUMPTIONS
SV = 0.5 HV (home visit still better value at every distance)
CV = 2.25 HV
Start = 2 HV
10 min = 0.5 HV
A+ vs. B+ Multiplier at D3 I guess at 1.2

B+ Team
2 HV = 2
12 SV = 6
2 CV = 4.5
start = 2 HV
15 min = 1.5 HV
total 16

A+ Team
6 HV = 6
1 SV = 0.5
1 CV = 2.25
start = 2 HV
25 min = 2.5
total 13.25 * 1.2 = 15.9


Closer.....I think for sure the D2/D3 mulitplier is more like 1.1-1.3 per grade of prestige though.  The D1 Multiplier is much greater.  More like 1.5-1.9

And Evals are closer to half a home visit in terms of effort than a tenth.  I have 100% proof of that through other battles I have been in.  They are still inefficient, and there is no way evals are better than half a HV, but they might be close to that. 


11/1/2010 11:29 AM (edited)
Posted by HalfAstros on 11/1/2010 10:07:00 AM (view original):
furry is just about right on.  

Once upon a time, the old admin said that if distance isn't a factor, the money/value ratio of all the recruiting tools is the same.

In my experience, that's pretty much true.  Just bring up a recruit 10 miles away from you and look at the prices - that will give you a pretty good idea of the relative value of each recruiting tool.

Of course, the values change a lot depending on distance, since the tools don't change price at the same rates, so knowing which to use at which distance gives you a significant advantage.


sorry, but this is such a severely egregious misrepresentation of fact that for the sake of those reading this thread, i just cannot allow it to stand uncontested -

old admin absolutely, positively, DID NOT SAY "if distance isn't a factor, the money/value ratio of all the recruiting tools is the same"

i believe i know exactly the instance you are speaking of. it was a low-level response to a question about the value of home and campus visits, if you should use all home visits or all campus visits or a mix, and admin said that it wasn't that big of a difference.

however, that statement by admin is so painfully misleading. we know for a fact that the value of a home visit is constant at all distances, same with campus visits, and that there are no diminishing returns. looking at different distances,
close distance, 300 vs 800, the ratio is 2.67
medium distance, 400 vs 1000, the ratio is 2.5
long distance, 700 vs 1300? (or is in 1200?), the ratio is 1.86
very long distance, 1300 vs 2000ish, the ratio is 1.54

this is a gigantic factor. pick any value between 1.54 and 2.67, and in some cases, the decision is one with massive ramifications. admin has proven time and time again he had become totally out of touch with the reality of this game at the highly competitive level. if you have no interest in being a good coach, then he gave good advice. but if you remember his representation of tempo, the +/- setting, and this instance, it should be abundantly clear that the top 5% of coaches were operating at a far higher level of detail and accuracy than the old admin was. he was looking at it from too high of a level - a level at which with a million factors in the game, none are very significant.
11/1/2010 12:31 PM
Posted by reinsel on 11/1/2010 11:29:00 AM (view original):
So here is my rough guess. 

ASSUMPTIONS
SV = 0.5 HV (home visit still better value at every distance)
CV = 2.25 HV
Start = 2 HV
10 min = 0.5 HV
A+ vs. B+ Multiplier at D3 I guess at 1.2

B+ Team
2 HV = 2
12 SV = 6
2 CV = 4.5
start = 2 HV
15 min = 1.5 HV
total 16

A+ Team
6 HV = 6
1 SV = 0.5
1 CV = 2.25
start = 2 HV
25 min = 2.5
total 13.25 * 1.2 = 15.9


Closer.....I think for sure the D2/D3 mulitplier is more like 1.1-1.3 per grade of prestige though.  The D1 Multiplier is much greater.  More like 1.5-1.9

And Evals are closer to half a home visit in terms of effort than a tenth.  I have 100% proof of that through other battles I have been in.  They are still inefficient, and there is no way evals are better than half a HV, but they might be close to that. 


this is a very solid valuation. i would personally never state my own assumptions so clearly, just because i feel like it could make my moves too predictable and also that there are some things people should figure out. but in the good spirit of this thread, i will just mention the slight adjustments i would make to this high quality representation of the battle:
- i would slightly decrease the prestige multiplier (but i would still put it within the range you specified)
- i would slightly decrease the value of evals (you are definitely right that they are closer to half than a tenth)
- i would slightly decrease the value of campus visits
- without knowing the pattern of tkimbles efforts, i would still assume a slight considering credit advantage for the B+ school of a few % or so. in reality it could be significantly higher, or nothing.
11/1/2010 12:47 PM
I agree that it's the perceived value of prestige that's off.

At D1 A+ to B+  could be more than 30+% per grade, or close to 100% difference
at D2 I'd guess it's less than half that number,  at D3 it could be less than half of D2, which would be under a 25% edge.
11/1/2010 2:29 PM (edited)
Oh these aren't the assumptions I really use, but they are relatively close. 

I also think that the value of a start and minutes are worth different amounts at different levels.  (I believe that a start is more valuable at D1 in terms of effort)

I beleive Lostmyth told me once that that D1 prestige is worth between 1.5 and 2, and I agree with that assessment.

I am sure that isn't the case at D3.  I have very little D2 knowledge.

I just won a battle where I was C+ vs. and A- team (equal distance) where I only spent $4000, so I know it can't be a factor of 2 at D3. 

Prestige at D3 is easier to come by and has other advantages in terms of what recruits will talk to you, so I think its fair.
11/1/2010 2:27 PM
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Posted by girt25 on 11/1/2010 2:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by furry_nipps on 11/1/2010 8:50:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tkimble on 11/1/2010 12:23:00 AM (view original):
Hmmmm pump in your sitemail you said 3 HVs and 1 CV, but in that history it looks like 2 HVs and 2 CVs.  So let's do some math...
Working with these general assumptions: 1 CV=2.5 HV  Start=2 HV  Every 5 min increment= 1/2 HV, SV=1/10 HV, and taking a VERY conservative multiplier from A+ to B+ we'll make it 1.5.  I won't take into consideration the calls and such because I feel the have miniscule amount of value and an inordinate of calls/letters were not placed.

Pump's efforts in terms of HVs:
2 HVs=2
12 SVs=1.2
2 CVs=5
Start=2
15 min=1.5

Total:11.7

My efforts in terms of HVs:
6 HVs=9
1 SV=.15
1 CV=3.75
Start= 3
25 Min=2.5

Total: 18.4

So either some of those assumptions are WAYYYY off (I don't believe they are), the 11 calls+10 coach calls+8 letters account for more than 7 HVs, or my A- reputation has a ridiculously huge effect.  Anyway, I am still trying to figure it out.  A little bitter because I lost the guy (not a program changer and I only spent about a little more than 3k on the guy, so I'm not devasted), but more just puzzled.  I sent in a ticket, so we'll see what they say.  
Way off.. Both evals and calls have a lot of value and you are not giving them enough. Also, in div III/Div II prestige doesn't mean squat. His calls/letter/coach calls amount to about an extra CV. His 6 extra evals is worth bout 1.5 or 2 cv. That gives him pretty much 5 cv.
You think half a dozen calls and half a dozen letters are worth a campus visit? No way.
I have never really looked at the value of each tool in recruiting.  I just do what seems logical, and I have had very good recruiting classes. I just had the number #12 class at D2 Findley, and had # 34 at D1 ULL. In the past I had multiple top ten classes at D3 Wentworth and D2 BYU Hawaii.
maybe I'm just lucky when I recruit , but I always assumed that calls and letters where a nice worthwhile tool. But then again I may be wrong because I hear all the time that boosters are an effective tool, but I have never used on of those either, just seems dishonest.

If I where being recruited and school A offerd a scholly and brought me out to campus, and followed up with a visit to my home......I would be excited

school B does all those things, but also calls me and sends me letters each week reinforcing the fact they want me at there university. I'm going to school B because there is the impression that I am wanted more. They really care.
11/1/2010 2:58 PM
I was actually ahead until the end, I'd say considering credit played no role.
11/1/2010 3:17 PM
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Recruiting Case Study: The power of SVs/Reputation Topic

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