Posted by mizzou77 on 11/10/2010 4:40:00 PM (view original):
I'm not sure I see anything wrong here. I think Baldwin is a dinosaur (old-school generation), recruit, who RS'd his first season. RDB has maximized him is entire career.... and the guy soots 41% his career.... not just since the 8/28 update. He plays low 20's in minutes at high 90's in stamina.... he's allways fresh and is just melting the faces on the DIII kids guarding him.... The only problem here may be the lack of a 2-12 night... but he's sooooo much better than his competition,,, he may not really deserve that night this season.
The guy has passed the next best scorer in school histiory by like 500 points with alot of games left. RDB has been there since I was (a long time ago), and had alot of good players in that time.... this guy is really just that good, especially as the rest of DIII gets worse.

*Edit, and as I see it... the problem is all about the fact that he is that good. very little else. When there are no old generation recruits playing in DIII, I don't think there will be anyone to have this conversation about. (IMHO), of course

The guy is on fairly fresh,,,, he plays alot of his minutes against the other teams back-ups....kind of a perfect storm going on here and your about to get to see it up close 

the issue is that he shoots within 15% of 41% in EVERY GAME. shouldnt he go 5/6 from 3 once in a while if he's that good?

Wow. Through 10 game, I just looked at my leading scorer who is averaging 27 or so points a game. He is shooting between 36 and 46.7% EVERY night.. No hot nights where he is 14 of20 or 4-15 nights when he cant find the rim... I am right in agreement with you jetwildcat. It seems guys can go 4-5 or 1-9, but when they are taking 20 shots or so a game, it quickly finds the mean...I looked at a handful of other leading scorers in D-1 in Iba and the result was similar if not quite as pronounced.. It appears the ability to go 20-25 or 3-22 is gone for players who are carrying a heavy load on offense

Mizzou -- You are right that Baldwin is an old generation player.  And RDB is one of the top 10 coaches remaining in Allen D3 right now so you are right that there aren't going to be many other Baldwins.  But there will be others.

For example ... how about a new generation recruit like Albert Auclair (www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Stats.aspx?tid=7688&pid=1606133).  (Also recruited by one of the select few of coaches that I'd say is a better than RDB.  There won't be many Baldwins in the new recruits but the top notch coaches will still find them.)  Auclair isn't getting super distribution but right now he's averaging 15.9 points a game on 66.2% shooting from the field.  That's crazy.

I'm repeating myself but what worries me about Baldwin is that he can shoot and shoot and shoot and he doesn't seem to pay a penalty.  If anything, the more he shoots seems to verify he comes close to his "true" numbers.

To make a reference that only you would get (and maybe you wouldn't), think Ralph Koffler (www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerHistory/Default.aspx?pid=669503) or Mike Hinds (www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerHistory/Default.aspx?pid=669508).  For those of you that didn't have the pleasure of being in Allen's NAC conference 25 seasons ago, they were players that ended up being top 25 all time scorers in the Allen world because they had total distribution.  They also shot 30% from the field even though Koffler was a 740 rated D3 monster that without complete distribution would have been unstoppable.

It's an apples to oranges comparison because Baldwin "only" has 29.3% of the team distribution in playing 60% of the minutes and the other two were closer to 100%.  But I'm making the comparison because we first hand saw how Koffler and Hinds were huge liabilities because the distribution was cranked too high.  Baldwin doesn't suffer at all.

And getting back to Albert Auclair, it truly scares me what might happen if barjaz chose to give him super distribution.  A junior hitting 62.2% of his career shots that is given the green light to shoot whenever he wants?  Chamberlain might have company in the 100 point club.

So for the people who continue to say that "in the old days high distro made players shoot more poorly"...  Clearly you're forgetting that we also JUST got the update that actually penalized players who get excessive distro.  Baldwin may not be shooting quite enough to be hurt by that, or perhaps he's being impacted by it slightly but not severely.  Regardless the comparison to old players who had enormous distro is way off base.  Those guys should actually do much worse now since taking too many shots actually makes players shoot worse now...  Prior to that update VERY RECENTLY there was no logic that made players shoot a lower percentage if they took a ton of shots.  Those guys probably just drew constant double teams and defenses specialized to slow them down.  That being said, do I think Baldwin is too consistent when he gets his shots?  Yes.  Do I think he's doing too well for the amount of shots he's taking?  Not really.  42% isn't incredible at all.

I hadn't forgot about the new change dahsdebater and it is helpful for you to point out since it does keep things in perspective.  There are penalties for truly obscene distribution.

Problem (as I see it) is that the excessive shot penalty doesn't kick in until a player exceeds 50% of the shots of all the players on the court.  That doesn't really apply here.  Here's the current distribution for the full team:

Player	POS	MPG	Off%
Harold Baldwin	SG	23.8	28.8
Brent Hittle	PF	19.4	9.3
Howard Boelter	SG	14.9	9.1
Norbert Thornton	PG	19.5	8.8
Grover Combs	C	19.3	8.6
Stewart Holmes	SG	16.8	7.9
Willie Partlow	PF	21.1	7.3
James Fiala	PG	19.2	6
Gilbert Ryan	PG	18.5	5.7
Darrell Stingley	C	13.2	4.7
Richard Edwards	PF	14	3.7
Michael Lee	PG	0	0

The majority of the lineups are not going to have Baldwin on the court taking more than half of the team shots.  If it is him and the rest of the backups, then it might.  But at the same time, I think that's an extremely unlikely lineup for more than a minute or two at a time.  The rest of the time it would seem that his other four teammates should in total exceed his number of shots.  And therefore there he's not being penalized despite the change in the new engine.

I think kujayhawk (and jetwildcat) are pretty much dead on here.

The more I think about this, the more I get the point. I initially was comparing full season stats, which seemed reasonable to me. But the point isn't that what's happening over a full season is out-of-whack; it's the game-to-game variance (or lack thereof).

It's actually crazy that there's no game-to-game variance. Aside from just the normal hot shooting/cold shooting nights, what about the defender? He's basically doing the same thing whether being guarded by someone great or someone terrible? Yikes.

kujay, did you send a ticket to ask about this?

Exactly.  It's as if the engine only looks at what occurred in the game previous to the shot, not considering other factors (such as distribution, defender quality, fatigue, etc), then independently adjusts odds of a make based on if the shooter had made or missed previous shots.  So even though a tired player forcing a shot against a great defender might have a 35% chance of a make, the fact he's 6-19 so far produces a 58% chance of a make.  Not good.

Guys, I am leaving the game on every level as quickly as I can due to some of the changes in the last 6 months..... however

I still say your making a mountain of a molehill. This guy didn't become this good this season... after some change to the engine. You held him to 6-16 shooting last night and beat them by 17 at their place....  he went 4-11 from behind the arc.
What you guys are missing here (to me) seems to be that yeah he scorers 25+ PPG but he's being maximized.... he's playing 20 minutes per game by choice, with 95 stamina. He's always fresh... and his defenders aren't. If he has 100% of the distro when on the floor... but is never tired in those 20 minutes... how is that a terrible flaw that needs fixing..... I'd be ****** if he went 2-11 against anyone.
And if he has very many 9-11 nights and is hitting 70% the screams would be 10x louder.

I 100% get your point KuJ,,,, I just don't see the problem you guys are seeing and don't think your looking deep enough into why this one player and coach have been able to do this.
I have seen people scream for years about the randomness of this game.... now it's not random enough for you?
The guy shot 6-16 last night.... he's a redshirted senior... from the old school recruit generation...recruited by a guy with DIII Titles and an A+ prestige.
6-16 from this guy is as bad as he should be able to shoot in 20 minutes of play allways being fresh on the floor.
again... just my opinion, but I think a valid one.

and just to clerify.... my posts are more addressing the original post's title.... did some engine change create this monster?.... not about whether what was once coin-flip-dynasty..... needs MORE randomness... that'll be one for you guys to fight over on your own.

Posted by mizzou77 on 11/11/2010 10:37:00 AM (view original):

Guys, I am leaving the game on every level as quickly as I can due to some of the changes in the last 6 months..... however

I still say your making a mountain of a molehill. This guy didn't become this good this season... after some change to the engine. You held him to 6-16 shooting last night and beat them by 17 at their place....  he went 4-11 from behind the arc.
What you guys are missing here (to me) seems to be that yeah he scorers 25+ PPG but he's being maximized.... he's playing 20 minutes per game by choice, with 95 stamina. He's always fresh... and his defenders aren't. If he has 100% of the distro when on the floor... but is never tired in those 20 minutes... how is that a terrible flaw that needs fixing..... I'd be ****** if he went 2-11 against anyone.
And if he has very many 9-11 nights and is hitting 70% the screams would be 10x louder.
I 100% get your point KuJ,,,, I just don't see the problem you guys are seeing and don't think your looking deep enough into why this one player and coach have been able to do this.
I have seen people scream for years about the randomness of this game.... now it's not random enough for you?
The guy shot 6-16 last night.... he's a redshirted senior... from the old school recruit generation...recruited by a guy with DIII Titles and an A+ prestige.
6-16 from this guy is as bad as he should be able to shoot in 20 minutes of play allways being fresh on the floor.
again... just my opinion, but I think a valid one.

i dont think its realistic at all for a guy's worst game of the season to be 6-16 and best 9-16

Posted by girt25 on 11/11/2010 8:48:00 AM (view original):
The more I think about this, the more I get the point. I initially was comparing full season stats, which seemed reasonable to me. But the point isn't that what's happening over a full season is out-of-whack; it's the game-to-game variance (or lack thereof).

It's actually crazy that there's no game-to-game variance. Aside from just the normal hot shooting/cold shooting nights, what about the defender? He's basically doing the same thing whether being guarded by someone great or someone terrible? Yikes.

kujay, did you send a ticket to ask about this?

even if he played against the same exact defender every game there should be more variance.

LOTS of players began to perform this way AFTER the 8/28 change. If someone doesn't agree with that, then we simply have different perceptions. My perception is that there is significantly less variation in shooting performance after the 8/28 change: now it's much more of a deteministic outcome on a game-by-game basis.

In other words, mizzou, we're probably going to agree to disagree on this one. No worries.

I'm not about to make a big deal over one game, but last night was a bit interesting.

Baldwin faced my team which was #1 overall in field goal defense last season (and I think #3 against 3 pointers but I know it was top 5) and after returning 10 players I again have the top defense and am #2 against 3 pointers.  I'm pretty surprised I'm that good but I've got a 50 game sample size that argues otherwise.

Last night Baldwin missed his first four shots.  And I think that's there the 8/28 update kicked in and from that point he went 6-12 to balance things out.  And in total he took almost a shot a minute before fouling out (16 shots in 20 minutes).  But again, it's just one game.

To get to your point Mizzou, if it was just this one player I wouldn't be so concerned.  And right now it is, so I might be making a mountain out of a molehill.  But what concerns me is that if the cat is out of the bag, could there be a lot more players like this.  I honestly don't know.

I brought up Albert Auclair on Ohio Northern but I'll take my own team as a hypothetical.  I've got Bob Welch (www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Stats.aspx?tid=7834&pid=1606423) who is a good player that is currently scoring 11.5 points a game while shooting 65% from the field.  Unlike Baldwin's 29% distribution, Welch is at 12.7%.  I'm very much inclined to think that I could double Welch's distribution and it is not going to impact his FG% much, if at all.

I am too much of  a wuss to test out my theory.  That's probably the case no matter what, but especially since I am playing very well this season and am not inclined to rock the boat.  But if I was sitting with a 80 RPI right now, I don't think I'd hesitate to double the distribution and while I don't know for sure I really do believe I wouldn't pay much, if any, penalty for it.

And that's my problem.  In real life, you do want your better players to force things a bit because a slightly contested shot from your star is normally better than an in the flow of the offense shot taken by a lesser player.

Baldwin isn't just taking contested shots.  He's shooting over double teams and even when he's not doing that, he's coming awfully close to taking a shot per minute on the court.

I earlier made the comparison to Kobe where Baldwin takes .82 shots per minute while Kobe (who also forces things) "only" takes .56 shots per minute.  For giggles I just looked up Wilt.  And in the 50 point per game season, he averaged .81 shots a minute.  In fact looking at Wilt is pretty interesting.  When he first entered the league, he was taking about .7 shots per minute and never shot better than 53% from the field, typically around 50-51%.  Once he changed his game to no longer be the dominant  threat and settled for being a 25 per game scorer instead of 38 per game in 1966-67, he started only taking .35 shots per minute.  And at that point, he never shot worse than 54%, typically around 58-59%.  It's not rocket science.  If you force things too much it does impact your shooting percentage.

But I'm pretty convinced that the 8/28 update means that if you force things now, it won't impact your shooting percentage.  Or at least not until you exceed 50% distribution and in seeble's own words in the development chat, that won't happen unless your guys is taking 30-40 shots per game.  That gives a lot of wiggle room if you "only" want your guy to take 25 shots a game.

Posted by girt25 on 11/11/2010 8:48:00 AM (view original):
The more I think about this, the more I get the point. I initially was comparing full season stats, which seemed reasonable to me. But the point isn't that what's happening over a full season is out-of-whack; it's the game-to-game variance (or lack thereof).

It's actually crazy that there's no game-to-game variance. Aside from just the normal hot shooting/cold shooting nights, what about the defender? He's basically doing the same thing whether being guarded by someone great or someone terrible? Yikes.

kujay, did you send a ticket to ask about this?

I haven't filled a ticket because before I do that I typically want to vet my crazy theories here first and see if there is agreement.  And there's been enough folks posting that disagree with me (including some folks I respect) that I haven't done that just yet.

Just because I think things aren't working right doesn't mean I'm correct.  And I'm the first to admit that a sample size of one player isn't ideal.