Posted by davis on 2/1/2011 12:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tianyi7886 on 2/1/2011 10:49:00 AM (view original):
After taking the guys above, I say if you take him, don't RS him. A RS year means he gaines 15-20 points, and then lose a couple over the off season. RS someone with higher WE. 

I disagree with Tianyi here.  If you RS him, then yes, over the off-season he will lose some of the points he gained.  BUT - in his RS year, he will probably get up to a C or so in IQ in your offense and defense.  This means you can start him as a redshirt freshman the following year, which should help his WE increase more quickly, which of course will help everything else go up more quickly as well.  Whereas starting him as a true freshman, his IQ will hurt you more.

+1

As an experiment, I took a PG with a 14 WE who had several high skill areas. I never started him but he was my primary backup for 4 seasons averaging 15-17 mpg. He graduated last season with a 22 WE and around a +30 overall gain. Maybe with a RS, starts, and more pt he might have improved more but I will never take anyone that low again. The drops in the off-season and the slow gains in-season due to the low WE are not worth it, IMO.

I would guess if you redshirt him, bring him off the bench for a season, and then start him for 3 seasons he could improve 120-150 points overall.

With all those high potentials I would expect him to gain close to 30 points a season with playing time.

here's what my last low WE guy did.  ( 8 high potentials)
                         season    offseason         ending WE
Redshirt            +29               -4                     12
Freshman         +26               -2                     13    14 min
Sophomore      +33               -6                     17    starter
Junior                 +37               0                      22    starter
Senior                +37               --                      28   starter
 
even though he made some nice gains, he probably still had room to grow another 150 points after his five seasons were done. 

Posted by Iguana1 on 2/1/2011 2:49:00 PM (view original):
I would guess if you redshirt him, bring him off the bench for a season, and then start him for 3 seasons he could improve 120-150 points overall.

With all those high potentials I would expect him to gain close to 30 points a season with playing time.

here's what my last low WE guy did.  ( 8 high potentials)
                         season    offseason         ending WE
Redshirt            +29               -4                     12
Freshman         +26               -2                     13    14 min
Sophomore      +33               -6                     17    starter
Junior                 +37               0                      22    starter
Senior                +37               --                      28   starter
 
even though he made some nice gains, he probably still had room to grow another 150 points after his five seasons were done. 

you don't have any records of a guy with low WE starting 4 seasons?

I would pass on this particular SF.  He has the potential to be really good, but right now he's not all that good at anything and he NEEDS that growth to be useful.  He's the kind of guy I would recruit if he had 60 WE, redshirt him, and then he still likely wouldn't see very many minutes his first season or 2.  Then as an upperclassman he could be a very useful player.  In this case to get him to be even a decent player you'd have to give him a ton of minutes while he's still below-average, and he'll almost certainly never turn into the beast his potential implies he could be.

In my opinion, this all boils down to a simple question.....are you planning for 3 to 4 seasons down the road, or are you out to win now???

If you think your team realistically wont be in the NT in the next few seasons, then go ahead and recruit the guy, and keep him as a mainstay in your starting lineup all 4 years. You'll see excellent returns by season 3.

If you want to win now, recruiting him won't do you any good if he needs to be sitting on the bench......playing time will help him improve. 

Simply put, only recruit him if you're willing to give him significant playing time for the next 2 seasons.

Thanks bbunch, I was just looking at him thinking the same thing and decided to check back here and sure enough you already answered my new question.  I have 4 seniors and 2 sophs I just came off an Elite 8 showing in the NT last season and figured I better load up this year while I have the "A" prestige.  I think I'm going to try to get him, then try the redshirt thing see how it goes and pretty much plan on him starting all 4 years he plays.  I'm going to be middle of the pack this season probably no tourney and then next season I will probably be in the same boat if not worse, so if he pans out by his junior year I will be happy.  If not I'll take his scholarship away and I will have learned from this. 

For D3, I would absolutely recruit this guy.  Redshirt him his Freshman season, get his IQ up to an acceptable level, then start him for all four of his seasons.  He'll be a nice player by the time he graduates.