I am still relatively new, but I do know that I treat this as a game and have way too much going on in my life when I am off the computer to try to put brain power into doing my own projections and following development patterns. So I pay for ADV scouting so I don't have to.
Maybe I could be better if I did the math myself and put that money elsewhere, but the short answer is I just don't care enough to worry about it.