Defense is Overrated Part II Topic

zubinsum
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I checked my research...  Prior to the last update at 2B I found that there was ~ 5 DP difference from D to low A+ range per 1000 innings.  Given that each double play in worth ~.039 runs that isn't a huge difference.   For a 600PA player on average that equates to 1250 innings played and about 7.5 doubles plays or 3 runs or a bit over 5 hits and perhaps a 6 point bump on BA.

Still, I am not entirely sure how DPs work.  The anecdotal evidence from super range teams indicate that there may be some combined effects across an infield.  However my research indicates that the pivot man has the most effect. 

[Updated 04-13-11]
4/13/2011 2:41 AM (edited)
soxdoc
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Check out the defense for my team ... I drafted superior range guys and they're performing very well.  My DPs are high because I drafted pitchers like Kevin Brown and Derek Lowe, who have induced 21 and 22 DPs respectively so far in 30 and 29 starts.  Also, the smaller the park, the greater chance for plus plays because there is less room for batted balls to fall.

At least that's my opinion.
4/11/2011 9:57 PM
boogerlips
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Pitchers have nothing to do with DPs to my knowledge.

Ballparks create or take away plus play opportunities as the singles factor goes up or down.
4/12/2011 1:17 AM
bjschumacher
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So Boogerlips, if you want to take advantage of having a lot of high range guys, pick a park with a high singles factor?
4/12/2011 11:06 AM
boogerlips
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They'll get more anyway. More hits = more plus plays.
4/12/2011 2:09 PM
bjschumacher
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So then you figure you get more hits as well, and your high range guys give you a slight edge, or so the hope is. I can see this. But then more hits = higher WHIP for your pitchers, so they don't go as far into the game, and if you spend more for the high range guys, you probably need to draft fewer total IP for your pitchers, and pitcher fatigue may be a factor over the course of the season. May not be worth it.

4/12/2011 5:45 PM
zubinsum
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Posted by boogerlips on 4/12/2011 1:17:00 AM (view original):
Pitchers have nothing to do with DPs to my knowledge.

Ballparks create or take away plus play opportunities as the singles factor goes up or down.
HIgh K pitchers reduce the number of balls in play and thereby reduce the chance of a DP. 
4/13/2011 2:45 AM (edited)
rbow923
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Posted by boogerlips on 4/12/2011 2:09:00 PM (view original):
They'll get more anyway. More hits = more plus plays.
Yes but less hits = each play is more significant. on average, a plus play in a low scoring game has more impact than a plus play in a high scoring game. I never got on board with the argument that more is always better.
4/12/2011 10:51 PM
boogerlips
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Range takes away X% of hits. So, whether you're in a high-hit environment or a low-hit environment, you still get the same %. The difference is, in a high-hit park, the X% takes a away a higher % of runs, because OBP is a curved function not linear. 

4/13/2011 1:00 AM
boogerlips
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Posted by zubinsum on 4/12/2011 10:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by boogerlips on 4/12/2011 1:17:00 AM (view original):
Pitchers have nothing to do with DPs to my knowledge.

Ballparks create or take away plus play opportunities as the singles factor goes up or down.
HIgh K pitchers reduce the number of balls in play and thereby reduce the chance of a DP.

4/13/2011 1:10 AM
zubinsum
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Posted by rbow923 on 4/12/2011 10:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by boogerlips on 4/12/2011 2:09:00 PM (view original):
They'll get more anyway. More hits = more plus plays.
Yes but less hits = each play is more significant. on average, a plus play in a low scoring game has more impact than a plus play in a high scoring game. I never got on board with the argument that more is always better.
I'm not sure that is true.  In fact it could be quite the opposite.  Low scoring games are likely to have less offensive components (hits, walks, stolen bases etc.)  In such an enviroment the marginal value of each hit (or hit taken away) is less than it is in games with high offensive output.

On the other hand, if the reason the game is low scoring is a matter of ill-timed hits and the actually output of offensive components is high, then I believe you are correct. 
4/13/2011 2:35 AM
zubinsum
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Posted by boogerlips on 4/13/2011 1:00:00 AM (view original):

Range takes away X% of hits. So, whether you're in a high-hit environment or a low-hit environment, you still get the same %. The difference is, in a high-hit park, the X% takes a away a higher % of runs, because OBP is a curved function not linear. 

What do you mean that "because OBP is a curved function?"  I agree with everything at least up to that phrase. 
4/13/2011 2:39 AM
boogerlips
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As OBP goes up linearly, RS goes up exponentially. Curved function.
4/13/2011 4:07 AM
boogerlips
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Actually if you graphed '% of OBP taken away as OBP increases', that function would also be curved, but it progresses slower, making a plus play more valuable the further you go up in RS environments.
4/13/2011 4:13 AM
jfranco77
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Posted by boogerlips on 4/13/2011 1:00:00 AM (view original):

Range takes away X% of hits. So, whether you're in a high-hit environment or a low-hit environment, you still get the same %. The difference is, in a high-hit park, the X% takes a away a higher % of runs, because OBP is a curved function not linear. 

This seems counterintuitive, but I thought about it some more and I agree with it.

Check the linear weights values for 1968 versus those for 1999-2002. A double is worth more runs in the 1999 season because there are likely to be more guys on base when it happens and it's more likely that the runner will come around to score because of a hit that comes after the double. So preventing a double in 1999 is worth more than preventing one in 1968, when in all likelihood, Gibby is just going to strike out the next 2 hitters anyway.
4/13/2011 11:35 AM
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