Girt, there is no absolute answer to this.  I could equally argue that (like in RL), some players have inflated opinions of their own skills and only come back to earth (and a pulldown) when it dawns on them that nobody in D1 really wants them.

I have to say that the vast majority of recruits I've seen ranked in the last couple of seasons had no business being ranked, either on potential or on real values.  Some of them were so bad that even my crappy ACU team didn't want them.  Finding the gems buried in the muck is the true art of recruiting.