Posted by fungobatboy on 2/23/2012 11:27:00 PM (view original):
there are players all the time who dropdown without anyone pulling them down. there are some gems in that group, particularly for schools with lower prestige. will cost less to get them to consider you at that point. the risk that others could take an interest at the same time you jump in still exists.
the biggest problem with waiting for dropdowns, ESPECIALLY as a lower prestige program, is just that - you are a lower prestige program! that means every higher prestige program will have that player drop to them first. players drop in tiers, and they will always (forget 70 miles and closer for a second) drop to the a+ school first, then the a, then the a-, etc - with a couple cycles in between each drop. often, a pulldown for a b or c school at the start of recruiting is already a d2 prospect for the high prestige schools.
so effectively, the only players you can get this way from dropdowns is ones that nobody higher prestige wants, on the cheap! of course, stuff slips through the cracks. but in general, your choice is to pull them down really early on, when the hope is that this player did not catch another coach's eye early in recruiting, when many coaches haven't looked, and for those who have looked, the player is an expensive gamble (a pulldown). if its a good player, you may have a chance of getting him in that scenario - and most coaches especially in d2/d3 are strongly deterred from players considering anybody, no matter who, at what distance, etc... so anyway, the thing to realize is that every cycle more coaches are looking, and as he drops to higher schools, the bar is getting lower and lower, more and more people can get him cheap. almost all of your best possibly prospects will get snatched up in that progression, well before they ever drop to you. again - some slip through - but that is the risk.
so given the above, what do you do? well, my advice is to do a thorough search of your good local area early on. find out how the prospects look. a lot of times, for bigs, you might go huh, pretty good crop of bigs. nobody stands out as ridiculously good, but there are a handful of players id be quite happy with and they are about the same. THAT is the situation when you might wait for the first to drop, and to snatch them. then again, if its only 200 miles or less, for 2k - you should often just bite early. so some seasons, you might say ok, ill wait on bigs, and then u look at guards - and there is a clear pecking order. there might be only 1 guy you would be really happy with, so that is where yo uwant to jump on him ASAP and give yourself your absolute best chance.
the fundamental key observation in this game, which emy/dcy was really pushing too, although he said it a little different, is this - GREAT players can make a huge difference and are hard to come by. GOOD players are a dime a dozen and they are everywhere. well, not everyone gets the good players but enough teams do, that if you really want be competitive, you have to do whatever it takes to get that GREAT player. like emy said, risking 1-2 walkons is more than worth it. so when you see that great player, go for it! and, often, you may look early and not find one, looking local. you just have to keep looking. don't settle for a shabby prospect because your local crop sucks. the local crop is just a small microcosm. you have to expand your search, look international, look a thousand miles away. and in the end, if you still can't find someone you are objectively happy with, just wait till next season. you are better off to have a guy you are happy with 1 year later than to have a guy you aren't happy with for 4 years!