Give me my money back - Page 2 - SimLeague Basketball

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detlef... I don't mean to be rude when I say this, but I can't help it: You don't know what you're talking about, so shhhhhh.

5/16/2012 3:41 PM

detlef

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Feel free to be rude, since you already started. How do I not know what I'm talking about? Regardless of our relative knowledge of this particular sim engine (which I'll concede you have more experience with, although it isn't like I've never used it), are you saying I don't understand variance and how simulations in general play out?

5/16/2012 4:15 PM

ashamael

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Posted by detlef on 5/16/2012 4:15:00 PM (view original):
Feel free to be rude, since you already started. How do I not know what I'm talking about? Regardless of our relative knowledge of this particular sim engine (which I'll concede you have more experience with, although it isn't like I've never used it), are you saying I don't understand variance and how simulations in general play out?

It looks like you drafted a ton of turnovers and not a ton of assists, just to get you started on what may be wrong (for the "Wormwood" team). Your drafted assist to turnover ratio is 1.47, which wouldn't even be league average in the NBA (and to have a good team, you should be aiming for better than NBA league average).

That's pretty much a glaring example of almost everything wrong with what you're saying. And your inexperience is why you don't understand that what you're saying is irrelevant to felon's problem.

And, yes, the variance exhibited by his teams are extreme and likely unwarranted, and your talk of somebody has to be the bad team is flat stupid and without any credible evidence (which you can't provide). Why can't you provide it? I can't help myself...

How do I not know what I'm talking about?

haha. That was a happy little accident. Anyway... 11 full seasons. Not a lot of experience to show how you've tested things out! You offer a hypothesis at best (one which has already been proven irrelevant by a shitload of testing by other owners as well as me).

Basically... you're wrong.

5/16/2012 4:41 PM (edited)

detlef

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I think you're misinterpreting my

talk of somebody has to be the bad team is flat stupid and without any credible evidence (which you can't provide)

I was saying that even if all of the teams in a 24 team league with an 82 game schedule were EXACTLY the same, someone would have to be the bad team. That's how simulations work, especially when you aren't dealing with extremely large sample sizes. It wasn't a particular knock on the quality of his team relative to the league.

5/16/2012 4:55 PM

ashamael

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back to the point...

monk... what cap is this league? Any special rules dictating rosters (blacklists, draft league, can't use X stat or more than Y stat, etc)? Because from a structural standpoint, it looks solid in every facet. Both are solid on usage, assists, efg%, score-zone distribution, rebounds (both cumulative and by-position), fouls (drawing & committing) and defense. I don't understand it myself. Are you in a division with five teams running Wilt-Wallace-Rodman-James-Kidd or something?

5/16/2012 4:57 PM

detlef

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And for what it's worth - I hate to burst your bubble, but tons of experience running full seasons on here alone doesn't make you an expert at examining the outcome of simulations. My comment about his lack of assists and tendency toward turning the ball over could be made by anyone with any knowledge of basketball. Compare it to how many you have on one of your teams, for instance (adjusting for the number of possessions drafted). He's complaining about his team turning the ball over on 20 times per game and I simply said that his team has a lot of turnovers. He drafted a 14.4% turnover rate and his team currently has a 16.0% turnover rate. That seems perfectly within acceptable bounds of variation (especially if he's playing up tempo).

5/16/2012 5:02 PM

felonius

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Posted by ashamael on 5/16/2012 4:57:00 PM (view original):
back to the point...

monk... what cap is this league? Any special rules dictating rosters (blacklists, draft league, can't use X stat or more than Y stat, etc)? Because from a structural standpoint, it looks solid in every facet. Both are solid on usage, assists, efg%, score-zone distribution, rebounds (both cumulative and by-position), fouls (drawing & committing) and defense. I don't understand it myself. Are you in a division with five teams running Wilt-Wallace-Rodman-James-Kidd or something?

the first squad you can only have one of Wilt, Rodman, Bron or MJ - the second is only players from the 99-00 on

5/16/2012 5:18 PM

ashamael

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Posted by detlef on 5/16/2012 4:55:00 PM (view original):
I think you're misinterpreting my

talk of somebody has to be the bad team is flat stupid and without any credible evidence (which you can't provide)

I was saying that even if all of the teams in a 24 team league with an 82 game schedule were EXACTLY the same, someone would have to be the bad team. That's how simulations work, especially when you aren't dealing with extremely large sample sizes. It wasn't a particular knock on the quality of his team relative to the league.

irrelevant. I highly doubt this league has anything close to 24 teams exactly the same. The team he built is very solid on every important aspect *for the sim* so the lack of success is surprising.

5/16/2012 5:18 PM

dh555

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Posted by felonius on 5/16/2012 7:02:00 AM (view original):
Posted by dh555 on 5/16/2012 4:15:00 AM (view original):
those leagues youre in with those teams are pretty stacked with defense...id say that has more to do with it then anything

and badja...i think you are dead wrong about defense...big difference between a 60 and a 90
then why arent the other teams impacted by it? why arent the teams facing my stacked D suffering for it? - why my squad alone?

wormwood (the first squad) is now L14 and counting - I've been on the site for like 10 years and that's never happened to me

yea 14 in a row is pretty insane....no way drexler should be shooting that bad

ill be curious to see if that team goes on a run at the end to balance out the numbers....if not..who knows...maybe youre on to something with the conspiracy

5/16/2012 5:26 PM

ashamael

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Posted by detlef on 5/16/2012 5:02:00 PM (view original):
And for what it's worth - I hate to burst your bubble, but tons of experience running full seasons on here alone doesn't make you an expert at examining the outcome of simulations. My comment about his lack of assists and tendency toward turning the ball over could be made by anyone with any knowledge of basketball. Compare it to how many you have on one of your teams, for instance (adjusting for the number of possessions drafted). He's complaining about his team turning the ball over on 20 times per game and I simply said that his team has a lot of turnovers. He drafted a 14.4% turnover rate and his team currently has a 16.0% turnover rate. That seems perfectly within acceptable bounds of variation (especially if he's playing up tempo).

First off you need to get one thing straight: You can't actually use real-world logic and apply it to the sim. You will end up continuously frustrated. So you can take any snide comments about "anybody with real basketball knowledge..." and just keep 'em because while I know a lot about the sim, I also know a lot about real basketball.

The two are completely different.

Now that that's out of the way, let's actually talk about the team and this sim, since those are the only things that actually apply here. He has 15 points of usage on the first team. That is enough to avoid both the team possession penalty and any individual possession penalties. So that takes care of two of the biggest reasons his shooting percentages are so low. Low? Hell, his shooting percentages are atrocious. He has plenty of assists as well (so that takes care of another reason why the shooting percentages suck). He's running up-tempo (no slow down, another reason why fg% could be low). There is no explanation for that other than he's in a league with all 100 defenders playing him constantly.

He said in addition to the obvious (the shooting percentages), he had high turnovers. The turnovers aren't out of line, but anybody that knows anything about the sim knew immediately what was fishy about his team and knew exactly what he was complaining about. Your argument about assists to turnovers is irrelevant to what was really at issue (shooting in this simulation) and your inexperience with the sim is why you missed the obvious.

There's nothing like a know-it-all that doesn't know what he's talking about. You've done this before. You're doing it again.

5/16/2012 5:32 PM (edited)

ashamael

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The irony of a guy with 11 full seasons telling a guy with 70+ championships what he did wrong is funny as well. I had to point that out.

5/16/2012 5:34 PM

ashamael

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one more thing to throw at the ignorant one:

I still don't get why people are so shocked when there's a difference (sometimes large) between actual and sim stats

It's not that. It's that they are shocked when there's a difference between expected outcome. Where do those expectations come from? Knowledge of the engine and experience of having used many different combinations many different times to know what is supposed to happen and why. That's basically the entire reason I began calling you out. You talk like you're so much smarter than everyone else when, in reality, you're ******* clueless.

5/16/2012 5:38 PM

felonius

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Detlef, ash is right

not enough assists? 70+% across the starting 5 is well above the 60% boundary for penalty (as is the mid 60s for my bench)

and turnovers? for the two highest usage players amongst my 5 starters: 99-00 Shaq has a 9.9 TOV% IRL and 94-95 Drexler has a 11.5 IRL TOV% - both of those numbers are ridiculously low

5/16/2012 5:46 PM (edited)

felonius

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meanwhile L15

5/16/2012 5:47 PM

ashamael

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actually the penalty is somewhere below 50%. So you're crazy good on assists man.

To be fair, I've seen that everybody's tov% goes way up no matter what tempo you run. Michael Redd's 6.something tov% almost doubles no matter how much usage you have.

I'll run the advanced numbers for you and see if it sheds any light on anything.

5/16/2012 5:59 PM

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