This is what I meant when I said we deal with our pitchers KNOWING exactly what they can do.
In real life, the manager knows the guy is near his pitch count. Talks to him, kid feels good, he can go one more inning. Manager thinks, he looks loose, his velocity's actually going up, his stuff is great. We can make sure we get the trainers on him right away, baby him tomorrow, blah blah blah.
HBD, we KNOW the pitcher can get to about 80 easy, if we let him go to 90 he usually starts getting hit around, if he actually goes to 100 he's going to be down to about 18%... real life managers are not thinking "he looks like he's down to about 18%"...
And if he can't make his next start you have to use the guy who can't get lefties out / has poor control / is a disaster waiting to happen if he goes over three innings.