Posted by possumfiend on 2/25/2016 12:46:00 AM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 2/24/2016 10:59:00 PM (view original):

Posted by the0nlyis on 2/24/2016 9:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by possumfiend on 2/24/2016 8:32:00 PM (view original):
Very possible to be successful at D1 with just 1 Big on the roster ... this is a monster of a team ... runs Triangle/FCP and the one big man starts but only averages 19.3 mpg. Oldman does start an SF at the 4 but his REB rating is only a 37.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=8825

wow I can't believe they are only getting out rebounded by 0.5 thats crazy

dont read into that. in his half dozenish games against top 10 rpi opponents, he has predictably gotten wrecked on the boards. the thing about team averages, even as a bcs team against a solid sos (10 in his case), it just doesn't represent what really happens in games against top tier d1 teams.

edit: just to expound on that a bit, the thing is about d2/d3 (unless its changed), is that outside the top team or two, there isn't usually a huge disparity between say the #5 and #30 team. its substantial, sure. but in d1, that difference is often a hundred points (of overall rating). nobody plays all top 10 teams all year, so even a strong SOS, you typically only have a handful of games against top tier teams. for oldman to have a half dozen of those, on a #10 sos, is pretty high, actually. and he got beaten badly on the boards over those 6 games, lost all 6 and got creamed in a couple. on average, its a BIG difference.

this plays into what i was saying earlier. of course, you can have a good 4 guard starter team. but, it gets harder and harder to make up for the rebounding hit, the better your opponents are. top d1 teams are so good in all categories, great on D, great scoring wise, great rebounders, with great guard skills. how much more can you improve in those areas? i don't think there is enough room there, to improve over roughly 90s in everything, to compensate for the comparably huge rebounding weakness. now, i do think 4 guard squads could win d1 titles, there's no doubt really. but i'm almost positive that at some point, at least by say when you are trying to build the kind of teams who position you to win a string of titles in a short time, that 4 guards would make that significantly harder. my feeling is the tipping point is around the championship seeking level (top 5ish d1 play, roughly), where 4 guard teams would really have to succeed in spite of having 4 guards. just my take, could be higher, could be lower, but i definitely think the strategy has a ceiling for where it remains effective.

"he got beaten badly on the boards over those 6 games, lost all 6..."

Lost all 6? What on earth are you looking at? He is currently ranked #1 with a 30-2 record and playing in the final four ... what he lacks in rebounding he more than makes up for with forced turnovers.

Right 31-3, Final Four loss. billyg, you must have been mistaken unless you went back a season as well.

The way oldman is doing it (a legit C, some good SFs {I would want a bit more Rebounding there}, and the rest Guards) is the only way I would try it.

i meant lost all 6 on the boards... not all 6 games! my apologies for the confusion :) i was just commenting on the comment about how he was barely getting hit for playing small, on the boards, which is definitely not true.

case in point: his final four loss - his opponent had 14 ORB and 28 DRB, oldman had 8 ORB and 19 DRB. when you look at the share they each had, on oldmans end, he got 19/(19+14) or 57.6% of his defensive boards. that figure is TERRIBLE. on the other end, knap got 28/(28+8) or 77.8% of the boards on his end - which actually is not that stellar of a figure - but its damn good. thats a 20% rebounding advantage to knap, that is insanely huge, very hard to overcome. realistically, that 20% figure was a bad game for oldman, but i would expect to see double digit rebounding disadvantages against top rebounding teams (in %s, not the raw board counts, which are way less valuable a stat than the %s).

If you want all guards could you counterbalance the rebounding by taking nothing but 3's to make sure more rebounds are long, or does the engine not take shot selection in to account for rebounding?

Posted by cburton23 on 2/25/2016 12:42:00 PM (view original):
If you want all guards could you counterbalance the rebounding by taking nothing but 3's to make sure more rebounds are long, or does the engine not take shot selection in to account for rebounding?

it does not