Posted by Benis on 1/29/2018 12:46:00 PM (view original):
Post the potentials and we'll have a better idea if it's worth it.

Green in DEF and LP. Blue in SPD, STA and FT.

Hmm, Yeah, I'm not loving losing the WE. You run Press so you really need to get his Stamina up which is tough with WE below 20 - even though it's blue.

I say just play him as a FR and try to sneak some starts in throughout the season if you can to get the WE over 30 start of his Soph year.

Does having the extra warm body in the 12th spot make your team better this year? And is this a player you can see starting for you down the road?

If you can answer the first with a definite Yes and the second with a definite No, it’s a no-brainer, IMO, just let him play out his four years, hiding him this year, and as a bench asset as his IQ gets above C+.

But if you see him as a starter for you for more than just his final season, it may be worth it in the long run. My reasoning starts with the assumption that he is going to be far more valuable to you that 5th season than he will be this year. If you project him as a starter by his 3rd season - which would be his soph season, if you keep the redshirt - his final work ethic will likely be up close to 40, assuming he holds on to the starting spot. If he started 4 years, it should end up in the mid 40s. That’s enough for him to max, or close to max all his cores, and even give you a good run on LP as a junior and senior as well. If you don’t redshirt him, and he doesn’t start until his 4th and final year, his WE will start that year barely above 30. So in the long run, you’re giving up quite a bit of development, even considering his up front WE drop. And obviously a 5th year IQ is pretty valuable to a team.

But again, if he’s never going to start for you, then I wouldn’t bother.

shoe... you lost me.

if you keep the redshirt on you think his WE will go from 18 to 40 by senior year..
but if you take the redshirt off you think it will go from 28 to barely above 30 senior year?

Posted by oldave on 1/29/2018 1:51:00 PM (view original):
shoe... you lost me.

if you keep the redshirt on you think his WE will go from 18 to 40 by senior year..
but if you take the redshirt off you think it will go from 28 to barely above 30 senior year?

Assuming starts, yes. Starting 3 years would get him close to 40 (projecting to start each of his 4 playing seasons at 18, 19, 25, 31, finishing about 38), 4 years would get him over 40 (18, 23, 29, 36, finishing about 43). No redshirt and no starts, it’s going to be more like 28, 29, 31, 33.

Thats why a consideration of whether you think this player will start prior to his 4th season is important.

Posted by bhansalid00 on 1/29/2018 10:57:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 1/29/2018 10:54:00 AM (view original):
Not much difference between 28 and 18. So I would keep it on.

If it went from 70 to 60 would you keep it?

70 to 60 I would absolutely keep it on - he'd be able to achieve strong growth each season (and offseason) either way. But not so much at 18 - his RS year will buy him improvement in IQ but not really in ratings.

This is why you guys are wrong. You are getting caught up in the numbers vs the effect on the RS.

10 points is 10 points no matter what the original WE. A 10 point drop is worth a RS.
So IF you are willing to RS at 28 then you should still be winning to RS at 18.

im still a little lost shoe, but its not my guys so no worries.
but why are we assuming starts if he redshirts and no starts if he doesnt? hes still the same dude.

It has been said that the ratings aren't linear. For example take 75 speed vs 65 speed; 75 speed is actually better than 65 by more than 10.


Does that apply to WE too?

mully, for me the reason 70 to 60 is different than 28 to 18 is in evaluating what he can become by that 5th year. in every year prior to that, he will be worse if you redshirt him than if you didnt. so the big question is how good can he be if you keep him 5 years. and WE is important in that because 60 WE will surely let him max his potential and assuming you recruited him, you must think he is a worthy player if he reaches potential.

i havent looked at the exact numbers here, but at some point the WE gets so low that the player cant reach the potential that he has, it feels that may be the case at 18 we, but i could be wrong.

but i still feel like you cant say a 10 point drop in WE is always the same whether its 70 to 60 or 20 to 10. to me that is waaaay different

then again, ive been wrong before... so,....

Posted by oldave on 1/29/2018 2:49:00 PM (view original):
mully, for me the reason 70 to 60 is different than 28 to 18 is in evaluating what he can become by that 5th year. in every year prior to that, he will be worse if you redshirt him than if you didnt. so the big question is how good can he be if you keep him 5 years. and WE is important in that because 60 WE will surely let him max his potential and assuming you recruited him, you must think he is a worthy player if he reaches potential.

i havent looked at the exact numbers here, but at some point the WE gets so low that the player cant reach the potential that he has, it feels that may be the case at 18 we, but i could be wrong.

but i still feel like you cant say a 10 point drop in WE is always the same whether its 70 to 60 or 20 to 10. to me that is waaaay different

then again, ive been wrong before... so,....

Yeah I agree with dave here and that is kinda what I was getting at with the linear thing.

10 isn't 10 anywhere.

The reason for me why 10 is different is because gaining those 10 back from 18-28 is going to take A LONG time (3 seasons?). Gaining from 60-70 will happen in less than 2?

Posted by oldave on 1/29/2018 2:44:00 PM (view original):
im still a little lost shoe, but its not my guys so no worries.
but why are we assuming starts if he redshirts and no starts if he doesnt? hes still the same dude.

Basically, my recommendation is that if he plans on this guy as a starter somewhere before his 4th season, a redshirt might make sense. Otherwise, if the guy is just an extra body to fill in off the bench for 3-4 seasons, a redshirt probably doesn’t make sense. The point was to show that even at 28-18, the WE drop and attribute growth are recoupable, but only if you are going to commit to starting him by his 3rd year.

Everyone knows he’ll be a more valuable player in his 5th year than this year, even considering the work ethic hit, and even if he never starts. But fully developing has an opportunity cost, too. So it really comes down to how you want to build your team. Is this a guy you want to commit starts and playing time to, or not?

Posted by shoe3 on 1/29/2018 4:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by oldave on 1/29/2018 2:44:00 PM (view original):
im still a little lost shoe, but its not my guys so no worries.
but why are we assuming starts if he redshirts and no starts if he doesnt? hes still the same dude.

Basically, my recommendation is that if he plans on this guy as a starter somewhere before his 4th season, a redshirt might make sense. Otherwise, if the guy is just an extra body to fill in off the bench for 3-4 seasons, a redshirt probably doesn’t make sense. The point was to show that even at 28-18, the WE drop and attribute growth are recoupable, but only if you are going to commit to starting him by his 3rd year.

Everyone knows he’ll be a more valuable player in his 5th year than this year, even considering the work ethic hit, and even if he never starts. But fully developing has an opportunity cost, too. So it really comes down to how you want to build your team. Is this a guy you want to commit starts and playing time to, or not?

I'll be able to get him starts before his 4th year either way, but it'll be to raise his WE, not because he'll actually deserve those starts as my best SG / SF. I can get him 10-15 starts this season, easy. (Though obviously not when I play you, shoe!) He might eventually become a stud starter for me if his green DEF rises by 30+ points, but that's going to take a while either way.
I think the determining factor has become balancing of my classes. It'll require a little more work, manipulating the depth chart every game to start / bench him, but I think it's worth it to get the WE above 30 this season.

Posted by mullycj on 1/29/2018 2:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bhansalid00 on 1/29/2018 10:57:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 1/29/2018 10:54:00 AM (view original):
Not much difference between 28 and 18. So I would keep it on.

If it went from 70 to 60 would you keep it?

70 to 60 I would absolutely keep it on - he'd be able to achieve strong growth each season (and offseason) either way. But not so much at 18 - his RS year will buy him improvement in IQ but not really in ratings.

This is why you guys are wrong. You are getting caught up in the numbers vs the effect on the RS.

10 points is 10 points no matter what the original WE. A 10 point drop is worth a RS.
So IF you are willing to RS at 28 then you should still be winning to RS at 18.

No

Posted by tissot on 1/29/2018 10:31:00 AM (view original):
Just don't play him, then at the end of the season offer him a redshirt.

I tried that. He'll be just as unhappy.