Posted by topdogggbm on 5/30/2018 4:04:00 AM (view original):
My SEC example is not a guideline for what i'm getting at guys. I'm talking about the fact that I've been solid the past few seasons. I was ranked #5 when season started in my respective division. As would a kentucky. (I know preseason rankings don't mean anything in general. But the system likes me apparently. I've been ranked top ten for 3 seasons and have finished top 10.)
my 3 losses dropped me a total of 3 spots. Over a 10 game period. As would a Kentucky. But my 20+ wins has buried me. I'm not getting analytical. I'm just saying it don't feel right. I'm not asking for sympathy or comparing my team to a big 6 conference. It's not even close. That's obvious. I'm now down to a 5 seed. (That's not the end of the world. And I agree that a Gonzaga is a much better overall example)
The ranking system values wins heavily while the projection report values SOS and the quality of wins. Gonzaga this past season is a good comparison. They played a tough non conf and had decent results. Then they did very well in their conference but it dragged them down to a 4 seed. Pretty similar to what you're experiencing here.
The one thing to remember is that other teams are playing games too. On any given night throughout the season you may have won a game against a 200+ RPI team while someone else just beat the #5 RPI team. So it doesn't seem that crazy to me that they would leapfrog you in the projection.
The problem comparing this to real life is that in real life you don't get a constant update after every single game for what the seedings are. I guess they're doing it a little bit with the top 16 thing now but that doesn't start after 10 games like we have in HD. So you can't really see how much you drop and move up throughout the season like in HD.