Posted by Jtpsops on 6/18/2018 12:32:00 PM (view original):

Posted by GoldieGamma on 6/18/2018 11:10:00 AM (view original):
https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/Boxscore.aspx?gid=92788868&tab=box&mode=modern

Your game 1 Starter Frey has a very subpar playoff history, truth be told he is not a #1 playoff starter. It was fair to expect him to wet the bed....again.
Your opposing game 1 starter Flores has an inconsistent playoff record but he balances bad appearances with great ones. The great version of Flores showed up in game 1. Meanwhile Frey was busy hitting batters, throwing wild pitches, etc. He should not have made it through the 1st inning. Not that it would have mattered, he gave the game away early.

Solid analysis rookie. Did you glean all that from your first HBD season? Or are you an alias? Please don't waste time trying to assess things for other people when you have one season under your belt.

Frey faced KC twice in the regular season and won both games, giving up 2 runs in 13 IP. He was also a 17-game winner with a very respectable WHIP and ERA. Grey made 3 appearances against KC in the regular season, going 1-1 and giving up 4 runs in 13.2 IP. Both did just fine against this opponent in the regular season.

Unlike real life, computerized players don't deal with "playoff pressure".

84 Seasons 0 Championships, is that correct? You should be more open to learning because you clearly suck. A natural loser. My team is ranked 4th from the bottom and I was a 9th inning collapse in game #162 from the playoffs. So I am already better than you by any objective standard. Come see me, I'm in Boggs.

I'm always open to learning. But the last thing I'm going to do is take advice from someone who just started playing this game three months ago.

Unless, of course, you're an alias. Which your posts suggest you might be. If that's the case, I don't want your advice either, since you clearly have something to hide.

Wow, this is getting fun

Posted by Jtpsops on 6/18/2018 9:35:00 AM (view original):

Posted by pjfoster13 on 6/18/2018 9:33:00 AM (view original):
One thing ive learned over time- You're never as big a favorite as you think

I'm not complaining about the idea of upsets. But their frequency in this game, in both HBD and SIM baseball is ridiculous. You can absolutely own a team in the regular season, finish 15+ games ahead of them in the standings, and come playoff time, your team has no answer for them. I can see that happening every now and then, but not at the rate it does in this game. It's ridiculous.

I know right!

signed:

2017 Cleveland Indians (finished 11 games better than the Yankees who knocked them out of the playoffs)
2014 LA Angels (finished 9 games better than the Royals who knocked them out of the playoffs)
2014 Washington Nationals (finished 8 games better than the Giants who knocked them out of the playoffs)
2012 Washington Nationals (finished 10 games better than the Cards who knocked them out of the playoffs)
2011 Philadelphia Phillies (finished 12 games better than the Cards who knocked them out of the playoffs)
2008 Chicago Cubs (finished 13 games better than the Dodgers who knocked them out of the playoffs)
2006 NY Mets (finished 14 games better than the Cards who knocked them out of the playoffs)
2005 STL Cards (finished 11 games better than the Astros who knocked them out of the playoffs)
2003 Atlanta Braves (finished 13 games better than the Cubs who knocked them out of the playoffs)
2003 SF Giants (finished 9 games better than the Marlins who knocked them out of the playoffs)
2001 Seattle Mariners (finished 21 games better than the Yankees who knocked them out of the playoffs)
1998 Braves (finished 8 games better than the Padres who knocked them out of the playoffs)

Sorry, I can't tell - how many of those teams had 15 more wins than their opponent? One? Oh, thanks for playing.

But even using your list for upsets, it's happened 12 times in the last 20 years. Thanks for proving my point. It seems to happen at least once per season in HBD.

Posted by Jtpsops on 6/18/2018 2:48:00 PM (view original):
Sorry, I can't tell - how many of those teams had 15 more wins than their opponent? One? Oh, thanks for playing.

But even using your list for upsets, it's happened 12 times in the last 20 years. Thanks for proving my point. It seems to happen at least once per season in HBD.

Those were only teams with at least 8 wins fewer than the team they outed. Real life baseball won't have a sub .500 team in the postseason. We get 6 per side they only have 4 (well 5 if you count the one game play-in).

PSA :
Regular season win totals mean SH!T when you get to the playoffs.



LOL "Once per season" LOL

Just looking at World F.Y.C., in the past 10 seasons, there have been 10 teams upset a team with 8 or more wins in the playoffs and two more upset teams with 7 more wins.

So you just further proved my point that it happens more often in HBD than in real life.

Keep LOLing though...goof.

In Upper Deck, in the past 10 seasons, 18 teams have upset a team with 8+ more wins in the playoffs, and 4 more upset a team with 7 more wins.

Should I continue?

So...18% for the time theres an upset...and some of those were done by the Louisville team that went to 10 of 11 and 7 straight WS. So I wouldnt really count some of those.

It's the nature of small sample size variance where you will lose a best-of-5 constantly.

If you played that team 1,001 times, you would surely win more than 50%. And if you played 1,001 series of 1,001 you would probably win close to 100% of the time, if not the full 100%.

But your problem is thinking that your 10-2 record means anything in the grand scheme of things. It doesn't. It's similarly small sample size. In fact, his three wins in a row vs you are simple regression towards the mean and in fact he still probably owes you another one or two losses.

Don't think like a human thinks, think like a computer thinks. Even if you were a 120 win team against a 81-win team the best you'll ever be in a 5-game series is something like 75-25, and that's a ton of wins for the underdog

Also, your team just isn't as good as you think it is. You have some nice players but you have flaws. You lost, it happens. I've been on every corner of the quadrant (favorite who eins, favorite who loses, underdog who loses, underdog who wins), and it's nothing more than independent trials. Learn to regulate your emotions and get better for next season

Gambler's Fallacy

A fallacy is a belief or claim based on unsound reasoning. Gambler's fallacy occurs when one believes that random happenings are more or less likely to occur because of the frequency with which they have occurred in the past.

Posted by damag on 6/18/2018 4:15:00 PM (view original):
Gambler's Fallacy

A fallacy is a belief or claim based on unsound reasoning. Gambler's fallacy occurs when one believes that random happenings are more or less likely to occur because of the frequency with which they have occurred in the past.

Also there's a psychological phenomenon where players tend to over-estimate the frequency of "bad beats" in games like poker, blackjack, sports, etc. Because winning as a favorite is "supposed to happen" you forget the times you win and over-remember the times you've lost

Posted by damag on 6/18/2018 4:15:00 PM (view original):
Gambler's Fallacy

A fallacy is a belief or claim based on unsound reasoning. Gambler's fallacy occurs when one believes that random happenings are more or less likely to occur because of the frequency with which they have occurred in the past.

Except it's not random. We're talking about a matchup of teams with a significant talent gap. The more talented team should win more often than it seems to in the playoffs in HBD.

(It's called Negativity Bias and there is a well-known article titled "Bad is stronger than good", link below)

http://assets.csom.umn.edu/assets/71516.pdf

How many World Series did those great Braves teams of the 1990s win? Just one.