some good info in here, but would like to clarify and add a few things -
1) summary of EE board - think of the board as simply being a range, a gradient of odds to leave. there are 3 ranges to concern ourselves with - assuming 'staying' means 0% to leave (which i believe to be true):
'likely staying' - about up to 30% or so, could be more in the 20s - 30s actually, its more that i think a 100 ranked junior is more around 30% i guess
'on the fence' - from about 30% to about 70%, maybe 65% (if on the fence is 20-65, i think juniors at 100 start more like 30%)
'likely going' - from about 70% to about 95%, the really high guys come back decently often but it does seem like its more 4-8 than 1&2
for whatever reason, the bottom half or so (i usually think 100-40 or so but that is just off observation, benis's 50 number is very well better being based on stats) have similar (low) odds, but then it really picks up on the way to 28, where player's move up a range.
there are 2 key cutoff numbers - 28 and 18, and these apply to everyone (there is also a cutoff for freshman, they start on the fence at 17 and go to likely going somewhere, maybe 8, but i kinda forget and its super rare).
so in the end if kinda looks like this
[100 ------------------------------------- 50 / 40 ------------------------------------ 28 ][ 27 -------------------------- 18 ][ 17 --------------------------- 0 ]
alright the formatting worked incredibly awfully so i give up - just typing it out
100-28: jrs are roughly 30-70% in here, it really picks up around 40/50. sophs are roughly 10 or 20% on the low end, up to 20 to 30% on the high end. fr are 100% to stay
27-18: jrs are roughly 70% on up in here, probably up to 80% or so. sophs are roughly 30-70%. fr are roughly 20-30 to 70%
17-1: jrs are up to a good 95% on the high end (4-8 seem to stay decently often but not 1-3 so much), sophs are probably 70-90%. fr 30-90%. there is a cutoff for fr in there from on the fence to likely going but i forget where, maybe 8? its super rare.
benis could probably slightly improve on these % numbers, he had some really good stats he ran, but that is the general model it follows at least.
2) every draft pick is worth a prestige bump, but its a fraction of a partial grade for every player. the #1 overall pick is worth substantially less than 1/3rd of a grade (one partial grade). whether you go up a grade or not usually is a function of how close to that next grade you were, to start with. nobody has ever done a study but i can lay out an approximate range.
the top of the 1st draft guys are worth significantly more than others. i would estimate the top 10 picks are on average worth about a quarter to a third of a partial grade (so about a tenth of a full grade). second round picks are worth decently less, probably like 1/10th of a partial grade on average, maybe a bit more (.15?). it is possible for your displayed grade to go up 2 partial grades (a- to a+) but it takes some ridiculous **** like 5 first round picks.
3) this bump should last for exactly 1 season, well it lasted for 1 season in 2.0 but i have no idea what 'one season' is anymore, in 3.0 with its two sessions and crazy schedule and the whole question about whether prestige changes even impact session 2. overall, this bump does not come *close* to salving the wound that is an EE. it didn't in 2.0 and EEs were half as bad then.
4) the year of the player impacts how likely the are to leave, for sure - the 25 ranked soph is way less likely to go than the 25 ranked junior, and so on for every position. however, the listed labels, in my opinion, are for absolute ranges and do not take into account class. i believe the 'cutoff' between say likely staying and on the fence, is a fixed % - whatever that is, let's say 30%, its 30% for juniors, sophs, and freshman.
so what benis is saying, on the fence sophs more likely to leave - its sort of right but misleading. of the set of 'on the fence' sophs, a higher % will leave than 'on the fence' juniors. however, the only reason for this is that SO many juniors exist in that 50-100 range where they are all on the lower end of the 'on the fence' spectrum. a junior can't be listed without being at least 'on the fence'. meanwhile, on the fence sophs only start at 27, and they cut off at 18. so, only a couple of the sophs are on the very low end of the 'on the fence' range, because they are so quickly getting up to the high end of that on the fence range, just over the span of 10 spots on the rankings. roughly, the rate at which sophs leave should bisect the on the fence range (if its 30-60, sophs should leave at 45% on average, more or less). the bulk of juniors leave near the bottom of the range, 30-40%, which pulls down the average.
but 'on the fence', whatever that means, is the same for all classes.
5) the board is basically the be-all and end-all for regular season rankings. its not some approximation, its the actual standings the game will use. the final rankings are only impacted by 2 things (beyond the board rankings themselves) - post season success (this is purely team based, champions should consider all their players to be a dozen or so spots higher than they are), and national all american awards (which are decently rare in big conferences where most EEs come from; its usually good players in garbage confs who are just juicing the stats and the game is dumb)
1/2/2020 4:40 AM (edited)