Not getting my $$$ worth (Free Agency) Topic

Posted by bripat42 on 7/15/2019 3:17:00 PM (view original):
I know you're looking for someone to agree with you, but his OPS was about what I'd expect from a right-handed batter with his ratings and a home ballpark like Seattle (-3, -2, -1, -2, -2). I can speak only to what his ratings are currently since I can't see what they were in past seasons, and based on his current ratings, he's not as good as you seem to think he is. Did he underperform a bit? Maybe—but nothing extreme. It's worth noting that he did hit .275/.379/.494 (.873 OPS) on the road, so the Seattle factor clearly was huge. He actually outperformed his career averages—and his ratings, in my opinion—on the road. It was at home where he was atrocious, and that's not uncommon in Seattle.

It's also worth noting that he posted a respectable .788 OPS against left-handed pitching. Right-handed pitchers, not surprisingly, chewed him up and spit him out. I stress this because you described his ratings as "very high," but 70ish is about average for an ML player, and Christian's only batting rating north of 77 is his vsL. A right-handed batter with ratings in the 75-77 range can't be expected to dominate right-handed pitchers, many of whom are boasting control, vsR, P1, and P2 ratings up around 80 or higher.

His 86/57 speed/baserunning combination is a perfect formula for getting caught stealing. Yes, 12-for-24 might be a bit worse than expected, but I still wouldn't expect much better results from that combination. So, again, his underperformance there was nothing extreme.

Good luck going forward.
Thanks, I appreciate your analysis and I am looking fot other perspectives besides my own. I am very ok with being taught, that is why I post.
7/15/2019 3:17 PM
Posted by dedelman on 7/15/2019 3:15:00 PM (view original):
I would have him at .285/.360/.510 in a neutral park-- OPS .870, which is basically exactly what he did on the road.

Playing half his games in SEA I would deflate to about .265/.340/.470 overall. So he did have a bad season... I hate to say, "small sample size" but even a season is not enough of a sample size that everyone has to play exactly to ratings every time.
I am pretty good with the batting avg and OBP. What formula do you use to convert power/speed to slugging? I have done some reverse engineering with some players and I can't see to get anything consistent. Is it because slugging is the most variable rating to convert to stats?
7/15/2019 4:03 PM
Slugging is a default value in my model. I have regression models for OPS and BA, and like everyone else I use: OBP = BA + .001*EYE.

Then modeled SLG just = modeled OPS - modeled OBP.
7/15/2019 4:17 PM
************ UPDATE********************

Player Profile: Red Christian - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

2nd year completed (walk year) and he miraculously had the year I expected last season.
10/28/2019 10:59 AM
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Not getting my $$$ worth (Free Agency) Topic

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