Posted by dahsdebater on 7/26/2019 7:18:00 PM (view original):
Posted by brett3154 on 7/26/2019 12:58:00 PM (view original):
I've tinkered with that back and forth but then they stop shooting 2s and getting to the line. My try it with my off guard but hard to change at this point.
Shooting 2s and getting to the line is very rarely as efficient as shooting 3s in HD if you have a good shooter. The really relevant question is, to me, when do you get too one-dimensional and easy to defend with a + defense. In general, I like to shoot for 25-28% of my made baskets being 3s. I'd rather be higher than that range than lower. You're pretty comfortably below 25%, and given your team efficiency on 2- and 3-point shots - assuming every single free throw was on a two, i.e. no fouls on the floor and no fouls on 3s - would still be better shooting more 3s. Ignoring turnovers and making the above assumption - every FT on a 2 point attempt - you're getting 1.404 points per possession on 3s, and 1.223 points per possession on 2s.
Again, that's assuming that every single free throw attempt you've had this season was on an attempted 2, with the usual coefficient of .44 possession per FT (based on long-term average of percentage of FTs taken as and-1s). So who cares if they stop shooting 2s and getting to the line? Accumulating fouls has some value, certainly, but against teams that are deep - which most teams in the 2nd round or later of the tournament are - there's no way it's worth .18 points per possession.
great post here.
i just want to add, i usually look at 3 point attempts as a % of total attempts (which is basically saying how many 3pt attempts vs 2pt attempts), because i feel like attempts are easier to calibrate against. it takes away fluctuations from luck (that are present in your made shot count) and i think it is more direct, because made shots depends on the quality of your 2 and 3 point shooting, and for example if you are shooting a medium amount of 3s but are awful at them, and your made % is low, you really don't want to respond to that by taking more.
still, i pretty much agree with dah's numbers (i'm ok with 30% made shots too, maybe a tad more), and for 'normal' teams (excluding severe cases), his measure and mine basically translate to mean about the same thing. i just think mine is easier.
in terms of 3 point attempts / 2 point attempts, assuming a normal-ish team, i really prefer to have at least 30%, and up to 40%, preferably in that 33-38 range or so. OP's team is 25.6%, which IMO is really low for how good they are at making them. about 10% more of your total shots should be 3s, IMO, which if you get .18 extra points per possession and have roughly 50-60 possessions, translates to 9-11 points per game. you would likely not get quite that much, because the other teams would play more of a + on you, and the value of your 3s wouldn't be so much higher than your 2s. still, its probably safe to say you are giving up half of that.
i wouldn't go adjust massively right now, but the best teams to think about, to think how you could make them better, are your best teams. having ways to improve your best teams gives you a new target to shoot for, and keeps you on a path of improvement. so its definitely something i'd think about for the long term - i hope you change your mind and decide to stick around! and good luck tonight.
7/26/2019 10:00 PM (edited)