Posted by crno1 on 10/5/2019 7:14:00 AM (view original):
Well we got the victory 72-71. I ended up going mtm -5 with mixed results. It did a good job keeping their bigs in check but we did commit a lot of fouls,they shot 34 free throws but most importantly we got the W. Thanks again all for the help now I gotta figure out how to take down a #1 seed.

good luck, that team is really pretty scary looking, that fb/fcp looks nasty.

Posted by crno1 on 10/5/2019 7:14:00 AM (view original):
Well we got the victory 72-71. I ended up going mtm -5 with mixed results. It did a good job keeping their bigs in check but we did commit a lot of fouls,they shot 34 free throws but most importantly we got the W. Thanks again all for the help now I gotta figure out how to take down a #1 seed.

it was unlikely no matter what you did, but to me this kind of game calls for closer to a -3 than a +2. if you are a big underdog, where you need multiple areas to break your way just to have a chance, you can't just play the average scenario - you also have to play the odds.

the team you played looks awesome but they don't take a lot of 3s for some reason. they have incredible per, but they aren't utilizing it like they should. on one hand, trying to get them taking 2s makes sense, but on the other, you are losing about 7 possessions to this guy just off of turnovers. if you are going to lose more on the boards, you may as well pack it up - the fg advantage you need to overcome that, given their offensive talent, takes you near pipe dream territory.

i think the way i'd play it is to go ahead and run that -3, maybe even a -5. try to beat down his 2 point scoring and claw back a few possessions on the boards. if he torches you from behind the arc, you were probably done for anyway. if you run into substantial foul trouble, you were probably done for anyway. at least with a heavy -, winning the battle on 2pt scoring and rebounding is something you can hope for on average. then you are basically hoping to avoid major foul trouble (which usually will go your way), and for him to have a down night on 3s (which granted is fairly unlikely given your - and his awesome per). there's a lot of volatilities in 3s. if you can make a far superior team beat you with 3 pointers, that is about the best you can ask for.

in short, when you play it straight, you play into his hands. don't worry about the 80% of the time that you are screwed no matter what you do, focus on the 20% when luck goes your way and you have a chance, and how you might capitalize on that opportunity.

also just FYI even playing it straight, that +2 is unwarranted for a team taking as many 3s as he takes. under 15%! 0 is absolute highest i can see a theoretical argument for, but i don't think your team is competitive enough with his to make that argument, nor is your team concerned enough about foul trouble to make that argument.

It really depends on your team and the team you're playing. If you're a solid man to man defensive team and you go slow down, you're less likely to
get into foul trouble with -5. It seems like weak defensive guards usually get exploited with -5.

You also have to take into consideration the other teams perimeter rating. Just because a team doesn't shoot any 3's, doesn't mean you should always go -5. A team with good perimeter ratings, but sets each of their player's to -2, can still hit mid to long range jump shots.