Posted by topdogggbm on 6/9/2020 4:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by marl_karx on 6/8/2020 11:06:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Qhadow123 on 6/8/2020 9:21:00 AM (view original):
thanks, guys. this is very helpful, and encouraging. so if i’m pursuing a D1 prospect and have thrown a bunch of points his way, what are the odds that a D1 or D2 school can swoop in and take him from me? if they’re rated ‘Low’ by the kid? Moderate? Very High even though i’ve promised more?

The odds that a D1 or D2 school CAN swoop in is probably close to 100% if they really want the recruit. They can go from Low to Signed in a single cycle if they have all of the recruiting actions unlocked. Its mainly a matter of how good the recruit is and what his signing preference is.

Correct. So for OP, as a D3 coach, you have to get comfy finding the sweet spot for targeted recruits. Not too good, because D1 and D2 coaches will steal them from you quickly. And not too bad because you need talent. It's arguably best to cast a wide net and have a lot of options, rather than loading up on 1 player.

Also at D3 signing preference is important. Early and EoP1 signers WANT to sign in RS1. You can not sign players until the last 24 hours of RS2. So this means if a higher division school starts to pursue your player, they can take him quickly before you're able to get to signing range.

Late signers are guaranteed to hang around until RS2. That gives you a bit more comfort. But still, if the player decides to sign in the first few cycles of RS2, you still won't be in range. But if he holds on for longer, you have a chance.

Whenever signers are exactly that, whenever they feel like signing. Risky, but sometimes they wait around. So always make sure you are at least aware of the signing preference of recruits you're targeting. That way, whatever stage of recruiting you're in, when you see a new school show up on the considering list for the first time, you understand what you're up against. As far as timing and options.

Most times, it's better to find other players. But in the right situations, it's ok to invest and dig in, and hope to fight off the other school. Lots of risks involved across the board tho

Disclaimer: I'm talking about D3 recruiting D1 players here because thats what this post was directed to. D3 recruiting D2 late preference is different but still don't recommend. D3 bumping down D2 sims is fine too and I actually do that a lot.

First off, agree a lot about not battling higher divisions and creating a wide net. Highly disagree on signing range.

About battling higher divisions, the short answer is never do it, but there are some exceptions. If higher divisions come on the day of signing and you have enough invested into the player where you can keep the competition out of signing range, sure, do it. Generally, trying to keep a D2 or D1 down is just a bad idea. They will always have the ability to get the player if they want them and if you use money to keep D2s down, a D1 can come or a D2 who is willing to drop a few visits and they will get the player.

The signing preferences in D3 recruiting D1 don't really matter at all. You shouldn't count on a D1 waiting until the last 24 hours to sign, they are not likely to do that and you will consistently get burned waiting. It's more just having a wide enough net to be able to move on whenever a higher division coach comes. That's what most best D3 coaches do. Obviously there are exceptions, for instance, I had a D2 Alaskan C prestige coach with 1 opening come late RS1 on my best target and I calculated he could only drop 6 or so visits so I knew my D3 A+ dropping a lot of visits with a preference advantage should keep him down. That's the only time since early in my career I remember battling a D2 or D1 for a player when they don't come the day of signing. Not a good stratefy most of the time.

Posted by topdogggbm on 6/9/2020 4:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by marl_karx on 6/8/2020 11:06:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Qhadow123 on 6/8/2020 9:21:00 AM (view original):
thanks, guys. this is very helpful, and encouraging. so if i’m pursuing a D1 prospect and have thrown a bunch of points his way, what are the odds that a D1 or D2 school can swoop in and take him from me? if they’re rated ‘Low’ by the kid? Moderate? Very High even though i’ve promised more?

The odds that a D1 or D2 school CAN swoop in is probably close to 100% if they really want the recruit. They can go from Low to Signed in a single cycle if they have all of the recruiting actions unlocked. Its mainly a matter of how good the recruit is and what his signing preference is.

Correct. So for OP, as a D3 coach, you have to get comfy finding the sweet spot for targeted recruits. Not too good, because D1 and D2 coaches will steal them from you quickly. And not too bad because you need talent. It's arguably best to cast a wide net and have a lot of options, rather than loading up on 1 player.

Also at D3 signing preference is important. Early and EoP1 signers WANT to sign in RS1. You can not sign players until the last 24 hours of RS2. So this means if a higher division school starts to pursue your player, they can take him quickly before you're able to get to signing range.

Late signers are guaranteed to hang around until RS2. That gives you a bit more comfort. But still, if the player decides to sign in the first few cycles of RS2, you still won't be in range. But if he holds on for longer, you have a chance.

Whenever signers are exactly that, whenever they feel like signing. Risky, but sometimes they wait around. So always make sure you are at least aware of the signing preference of recruits you're targeting. That way, whatever stage of recruiting you're in, when you see a new school show up on the considering list for the first time, you understand what you're up against. As far as timing and options.

Most times, it's better to find other players. But in the right situations, it's ok to invest and dig in, and hope to fight off the other school. Lots of risks involved across the board tho

Disclaimer: I'm talking about D3 recruiting D1 players here because thats what this post was directed to. D3 recruiting D2 late preference is different but still don't recommend. D3 bumping down D2 sims is fine too and I actually do that a lot.

First off, agree a lot about not battling higher divisions and creating a wide net. Highly disagree on signing range.

About battling higher divisions, the short answer is never do it, but there are some exceptions. If higher divisions come on the day of signing and you have enough invested into the player where you can keep the competition out of signing range, sure, do it. Generally, trying to keep a D2 or D1 down is just a bad idea. They will always have the ability to get the player if they want them and if you use money to keep D2s down, a D1 can come or a D2 who is willing to drop a few visits and they will get the player.

The signing preferences in D3 recruiting D1 don't really matter at all. You shouldn't count on a D1 waiting until the last 24 hours to sign, they are not likely to do that and you will consistently get burned waiting. It's more just having a wide enough net to be able to move on whenever a higher division coach comes. That's what most best D3 coaches do. Obviously there are exceptions, for instance, I had a D2 Alaskan C prestige coach with 1 opening come late RS1 on my best target and I calculated he could only drop 6 or so visits so I knew my D3 A+ dropping a lot of visits with a preference advantage should keep him down. That's the only time since early in my career I remember battling a D2 or D1 for a player when they don't come the day of signing. Not a good strategy most of the time.

Posted by marl_karx on 6/10/2020 10:00:00 AM (view original):
Those are nice pat answers and they might be correct but I have questions

1. Has anyone compiled world population data over time? Do the hard numbers reflect a mass exodus with the implementation of version 3? Slow ongoing drain?

2. Is recruit generation not at all scaled to the number of human players?

3. Re:'asking about direct competition between levels': how much does that matter? Just because the dividing lines are not flashing green neon runway lights doesn't mean that there isn't a segmentation between divisions. So if there were perpetual inter-division clashes it seems like they would be the result of a) lower division overreach or b)upper division settling, both of which seem unsustainable and/or reflect borderline player incompetence.

I push the question in this direction because the question whether D3 can win battles is not very interesting (basically they can't) and the proffered theory/explanation for D3 teams thriving ins spite of this (superabundance of talent comapred to number of players where it more or less grows on trees) a)lacks any kind of a baseline since it is not clear what talent is defined relative to b) fails to account for the current DISTRIBUTION of talent unless almost all (lower division?) players are considered incompetent.

1) there's population data, just do a search for population data next time - for this time, here's a link https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=520263

in short, its kind of more of a slow burn, but if you compare roughly when 3.0 was announced to 6 months into 3.0, the drop is quite significant. im not sure how that lines up in terms of which season is which off hand.

2) i do not believe human vs sim has anything to do with it. in 2.0 i would have said i was fairly confident, you know, 95% or something. i don't really know about 3.0, i don't think i heard it changed, but my starting point is 'anything could have changed'

3) i don't know how much it matters - hence my question! i sort of felt like a pretty key piece of advice to newer d3 coaches 'do not battle higher division teams for d1 players, or d2 teams for d2 players in RS1' was missing. but having 0 seconds of d3 experience in 3.0 and really many years before that, i figured i would phrase my statement in the form of a question :) i do think its an important statement for framing the d3 recruiting experience.

i might just be taking you a bit the wrong way, and you did acknowledge there aren't neon lines - but i would counter, if there isn't perpetual inter-division clashing, its because of the time advantage cliff. before that existed, the story of inter division battles is roughly fixed over time. top coaches considered it a regular option, most coaches weren't that aggressive. but there was constant potential for clash because in many cases the players recruited by the best coaches in a division are better than the players recruited by the worst coaches in the higher division. i guess you can call that incompetence, and i'd only half disagree. that is part, but also the crapshoot of recruit gen + who happens to look where + who happens to need what makes the season to season variation in what is available quite different season over season even. that seems very much to be the case today, and it seems the top d3 teams would trivially make the NT in d2, and probably win at least a game or two fairly regularly. if anything, the overlap today looks bigger, with the big step up in d3 team caliber.

i get where you are coming from, that an informed d3 coach or d2 coach has a good sense of what 'might' fall down to them. but that doesn't mean there isn't major overlap there, its basically a mandatory consequence of the recruiting structure, especially now where 1) the lines between divisions are even less, and the lines between prestige levels of teams aren't even a thing anymore (in terms of which recruits are technically possible to recruit), and 2) the lower population. so it seems wrong to me to suggest the lack of battles is due to lack of overlap. take away that time advantage cliff and i have to imagine you'd be right back where you were in the old days - aggressive coaches would consider it a regular option, others would not.

Posted by Sportsbulls on 6/10/2020 11:32:00 AM (view original):

Posted by topdogggbm on 6/9/2020 4:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by marl_karx on 6/8/2020 11:06:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Qhadow123 on 6/8/2020 9:21:00 AM (view original):
thanks, guys. this is very helpful, and encouraging. so if i’m pursuing a D1 prospect and have thrown a bunch of points his way, what are the odds that a D1 or D2 school can swoop in and take him from me? if they’re rated ‘Low’ by the kid? Moderate? Very High even though i’ve promised more?

The odds that a D1 or D2 school CAN swoop in is probably close to 100% if they really want the recruit. They can go from Low to Signed in a single cycle if they have all of the recruiting actions unlocked. Its mainly a matter of how good the recruit is and what his signing preference is.

Correct. So for OP, as a D3 coach, you have to get comfy finding the sweet spot for targeted recruits. Not too good, because D1 and D2 coaches will steal them from you quickly. And not too bad because you need talent. It's arguably best to cast a wide net and have a lot of options, rather than loading up on 1 player.

Also at D3 signing preference is important. Early and EoP1 signers WANT to sign in RS1. You can not sign players until the last 24 hours of RS2. So this means if a higher division school starts to pursue your player, they can take him quickly before you're able to get to signing range.

Late signers are guaranteed to hang around until RS2. That gives you a bit more comfort. But still, if the player decides to sign in the first few cycles of RS2, you still won't be in range. But if he holds on for longer, you have a chance.

Whenever signers are exactly that, whenever they feel like signing. Risky, but sometimes they wait around. So always make sure you are at least aware of the signing preference of recruits you're targeting. That way, whatever stage of recruiting you're in, when you see a new school show up on the considering list for the first time, you understand what you're up against. As far as timing and options.

Most times, it's better to find other players. But in the right situations, it's ok to invest and dig in, and hope to fight off the other school. Lots of risks involved across the board tho

Disclaimer: I'm talking about D3 recruiting D1 players here because thats what this post was directed to. D3 recruiting D2 late preference is different but still don't recommend. D3 bumping down D2 sims is fine too and I actually do that a lot.

First off, agree a lot about not battling higher divisions and creating a wide net. Highly disagree on signing range.

About battling higher divisions, the short answer is never do it, but there are some exceptions. If higher divisions come on the day of signing and you have enough invested into the player where you can keep the competition out of signing range, sure, do it. Generally, trying to keep a D2 or D1 down is just a bad idea. They will always have the ability to get the player if they want them and if you use money to keep D2s down, a D1 can come or a D2 who is willing to drop a few visits and they will get the player.

The signing preferences in D3 recruiting D1 don't really matter at all. You shouldn't count on a D1 waiting until the last 24 hours to sign, they are not likely to do that and you will consistently get burned waiting. It's more just having a wide enough net to be able to move on whenever a higher division coach comes. That's what most best D3 coaches do. Obviously there are exceptions, for instance, I had a D2 Alaskan C prestige coach with 1 opening come late RS1 on my best target and I calculated he could only drop 6 or so visits so I knew my D3 A+ dropping a lot of visits with a preference advantage should keep him down. That's the only time since early in my career I remember battling a D2 or D1 for a player when they don't come the day of signing. Not a good strategy most of the time.

this is really what i was curious about - thanks! i am curious if there are folks out there finding a way, but it really feels like... not that worth it.