Posted by GoldieGamma on 9/29/2020 12:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by brianp87 on 9/29/2020 10:10:00 AM (view original):
I always laugh when people look at minor league stats.

I definitely look at and consider minor league stats. Ratings without production is concerning.

I look at minor league stats, too....... to see guys like this just put up obscene numbers, knowing full well he'll never be an everyday player at my big league team.

Player Profile: Vicente Gimenez - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

Posted by brianp87 on 9/29/2020 1:44:00 PM (view original):
Im not trying to make fun of you but let you know that looking at minor league stats is not the way to do it. It could also mislead others to believe this.

He'll quickly learn if he decides to build an ML team based solely on how those players performed in the minors.

The good news is, any decent prospect will most likely put up great numbers in the minors anyway.

Posted by mannytanner on 9/29/2020 2:03:00 PM (view original):

Posted by brianp87 on 9/29/2020 1:44:00 PM (view original):
Im not trying to make fun of you but let you know that looking at minor league stats is not the way to do it. It could also mislead others to believe this.

He'll quickly learn if he decides to build an ML team based solely on how those players performed in the minors.

The good news is, any decent prospect will most likely put up great numbers in the minors anyway.

Quickly learn? Lmao, I have a track record of transitioning players into the big leagues, including many instances of players that other teams don't want. Also I never said to evaluate prospects "Solely" on minor league stats. There is nuance and there is balance. It appears to me that the arguments against my theory/process lack nuance as it seems you all are simplifying to make it easier instead of attempting to understand how minor league stats corelate. This works for me and you are misleading others into believing that minor league stats don't matter. They do.

lol they do not matter not one bit period. Sorry to burst your bubble find we one successful owner who agrees with you. Players ALWAYS play to there ratings. Show me a player who stats showed you he was better then anyone would have thought.

Posted by GoldieGamma on 9/29/2020 2:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mannytanner on 9/29/2020 2:03:00 PM (view original):

Posted by brianp87 on 9/29/2020 1:44:00 PM (view original):
Im not trying to make fun of you but let you know that looking at minor league stats is not the way to do it. It could also mislead others to believe this.

He'll quickly learn if he decides to build an ML team based solely on how those players performed in the minors.

The good news is, any decent prospect will most likely put up great numbers in the minors anyway.

Quickly learn? Lmao, I have a track record of transitioning players into the big leagues, including many instances of players that other teams don't want. Also I never said to evaluate prospects "Solely" on minor league stats. There is nuance and there is balance. It appears to me that the arguments against my theory/process lack nuance as it seems you all are simplifying to make it easier instead of attempting to understand how minor league stats corelate. This works for me and you are misleading others into believing that minor league stats don't matter. They do.

1) Stats are not useful predictors of HBD performance, major or minor. Ratings are. Stats teach you how to interpret ratings, and you can use them in an ongoing way to continuously refine your understanding of ratings. But ratings predict performance.
2) In HBD, minor league stats are hard to use to teach you how to interpret ratings, because other owners are inconsistent about how their minors are maintained, allowing stats to fatten up on exhausted pitchers and the like.

I was hoping someone much smarter then me would chime in.

I have had: several players with major-league-ready ratings who never "excelled" in the minors but were fine pros once they got the the majors anyway. Or to use brianp87's wording, they played to their ratings.

I have NEVER had: one single minor league stud whose ratings were not major league quality, who I elevated to the majors for any reason, and who ended up blowing away my expectations.

As has been stated, minor league teams and systems are of hugely varied quality and states of upkeep.

Also this: The difference in talent level between minor leagues is probably about 10% increments. The difference in talent level from AAA to Major League is more like a 30% jump.

Posted by brianp87 on 9/29/2020 4:20:00 PM (view original):
I was hoping someone much smarter then me would chime in.

Then we should both be glad damag joined in.

Posted by GoldieGamma on 9/29/2020 2:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mannytanner on 9/29/2020 2:03:00 PM (view original):

Posted by brianp87 on 9/29/2020 1:44:00 PM (view original):
Im not trying to make fun of you but let you know that looking at minor league stats is not the way to do it. It could also mislead others to believe this.

He'll quickly learn if he decides to build an ML team based solely on how those players performed in the minors.

The good news is, any decent prospect will most likely put up great numbers in the minors anyway.

Quickly learn? Lmao, I have a track record of transitioning players into the big leagues, including many instances of players that other teams don't want. Also I never said to evaluate prospects "Solely" on minor league stats. There is nuance and there is balance. It appears to me that the arguments against my theory/process lack nuance as it seems you all are simplifying to make it easier instead of attempting to understand how minor league stats corelate. This works for me and you are misleading others into believing that minor league stats don't matter. They do.

How can minor league stats possibly matter when in lots of worlds you routinely see 22-1 final scores in minor league games?

If I'm "transitioning" a player to the big leagues, I look at his ratings exclusively. Every quality ML team needs those "AAAA" type role players, defensive guys, whatever to round out a complete team. I never once look at their minor league stats when making those decisions. If it works for you, great. But there are way too many variables in the minor leagues (a full pitching staff at 0%, maybe no fatigue but a low/high A teams comprised of 30-40 OVR guys, etc.) for the stats to mean nothing.

Minor league stats are almost entirely cosmetic. Absolutely entirely cosmetic below AAA. They're fun to look at to see what kind of crazy things the sim will spit out, and that's it. The only other use I can think of is that a guy in AAA performing way better than his ratings suggest may be having a career year, if you believe in that particular theory, and could be useful as an emergency callup. I haven't observed anywhere near a large enough sample size to prove or disprove that theory, and it may be entirely impossible to do so considering emergency callups don't usually accumulate a lot of playing time. But anecdotally, it's worked for me in a pinch—for example, I had so many injuries to my pitching staff last season that I had to call up this guy, who I selected from among other bad options based on his AAA stats, and he continued to outperform his ratings at the ML level. If you don't believe in the career year theory, then yeah, there's no use for minor league stats beyond seeing if a guy can steal 200 bases in a season or whatever.

I don't care what y'all say, I still look at minor league stats when I'm trying to trade for a prospect. It's not the major factor, but I still look at it.