For one brief moment anyway, all 7 of my teams are at .500 or better. Granted, two are exactly 58-58 and one is 59-57. It won't last long.
12/26/2020 1:59 PM
UPDATE THRU 136 GAMES
1/2/2021 10:08 AM
Winning% by draft order...
.
Pick# Wins Losses Win% Rd 5
----------- ----------- ----------- ---------------- -----------
1 461 355 0.565 6
2 456 360 0.559 6
3 452 364 0.554 5
4 402 414 0.493 4
5 460 356 0.564 6
6 441 375 0.540 6
7 426 390 0.522 5
8 455 361 0.558 6
9 385 431 0.472 4
10 412 404 0.505 4
11 414 402 0.507 4
12 400 416 0.490 4
13 393 423 0.482 4
14 387 429 0.474 2
15 386 430 0.473 3
16 367 449 0.450 2
17 391 425 0.479 3
18 354 462 0.434 2
19 401 415 0.491 4
20 390 426 0.478 3
21 386 430 0.473 3
22 382 434 0.468 4
23 400 416 0.490 4
24 391 425 0.479 3
1/2/2021 10:14 AM (edited)
Round 5 totals don't add up to exactly 96 because I haven't factored in tie-breakers.
1/2/2021 10:24 AM (edited)
I wanted to see how each franchise has done, within their league.... This table summarizes this...
.
League Franch Teams Win% Rd 5
----------- ----------- ----------- -------------- -----------
1 NYY 10 0.531 7
1 SF 10 0.488 7
1 Phi 4 0.452 1
----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
2 Bos 10 0.526 9
2 LAD 9 0.485 6
2 Min 5 0.474 2
----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
3 Oak 9 0.522 5
3 Atl 7 0.493 5
3 Det 8 0.482 5
----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
4 ChC 7 0.518 6
4 Cin 5 0.494 3
4 Bal 5 0.493 4
4 ChW 7 0.492 3
----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
5 StL 8 0.520 7
5 Cle 9 0.513 7
5 Pit 7 0.460 4
----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
6 Hou 5 0.563 4
6 Was 2 0.529 2
6 NYM 4 0.526 3
6 Mon 1 0.493 1
6 Mil 1 0.478 1
6 SD 2 0.474 1
6 Tor 2 0.471 1
6 LAA 3 0.458 2
6 KC 2 0.449 1
6 Tex 2 0.445 0
1/2/2021 10:25 AM
Because we each got to pick our division, typically the first 6 picks in a league were in different divisions. For each team, I noted if they were the first, second, third or last team in their respective division. Here are the results...
.
Div Wins Losses Win% Rd 5
----------- ----------- ----------- -------------- -----------
1 2684 2212 0.548 33
2 2475 2421 0.506 27
3 2298 2598 0.469 17
4 2335 2561 0.477 20
1/2/2021 10:33 AM
So, 33 of the 36 teams that were the first in their division are projected to advance to round 5. So that's generally the top 6 draft picks. If you were the second team in your division, you have a 75% chance to advance to round 5. If you were third or fourth, you have roughly a 50% chance of advancing to Round 5.
1/2/2021 10:35 AM
Ranked using the W-L records of all four teams, here are the toughest divisions...
.
League 5 - NL East W-L PCT Owner
Redbird Fives 80-56 0.588 joerat1
Indians 3's 73-63 0.537 kstober
Zero Little Indians 73-63 0.537 firesalt
Pirates 3's 72-64 0.529 schwarze
.
League 3 - AL West W-L PCT Owner
Athletics 0's 90-46 0.662 schwarze
Tigers xxx4 70-66 0.515 pedrocerrano
Braves 5 Alive 70-66 0.515 Relkcirts
Athletics 7’s 59-77 0.434 darny10
.
League 2 - AL Central W-L PCT Owner
Huntington 5's (Americans/Red Sox) 78-58 0.574 harrelson
Dodgers 6 71-65 0.522 contrarian23
Dodgers 4's 70-66 0.515 toysboys
I Take the Fifth, Senators 70-66 0.515 redcped
.
1/2/2021 10:41 AM
The worst division....
.
League 6 - AL East W-L PCT Owner
J4 L6 - Jays 5's 63-73 0.463 Chisock
Juice 6 ALE - Senators/Rangers 1s 63-73 0.463 calhoop
Astro 8"s 62-74 0.456 kstober
(5) Padres (5) 60-76 0.441 nocomm999
1/2/2021 10:43 AM
Here is every team's W-L record, sorted by league, then draft order...
.
Owner MLB League 1 Win Loss Franch Rd5
------------------ ------ ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- ---------
toysboys 1 Yankees 7's 80 56 NYY 1
schwarze 2 Yankees 4's 85 51 NYY 1
Jtpsops 3 Zero Dark Yankee 75 61 NYY 1
contrarian23 4 Yankees 6 73 63 NYY 1
njbigwig 5 Yankees #1 80 56 NYY 1
thejuice6 6 Giants On The 4's 78 58 SF 1
kstober 7 Giants 8's 68 68 SF 1
pedrocerrano 8 Yankees xxx8 79 57 NYY 1
schwarze 9 Giants 9's 69 67 SF 1
ybjsports 10 Giants 5 75 61 SF 1
nocomm999 11 (9) Yankees (9) 81 55 NYY 1
contrarian23 12 Giants 7 52 84 SF 0
calhoop 13 Juice 1 ALC - Yankees 3s 49 87 NYY 0
urband 14 NY High 5 landers 62 74 NYY 0
DarthDurron 15 Giants 3's 65 71 SF 1
mllama54 16 Giants 6 58 78 SF 0
redcped 17 One Giant Leap 73 63 SF 1
Chisock 18 J4 L1- Phillies 7's 63 73 Phi 0
3dayrotation 19 6 phillies 58 78 Phi 0
SteveIzzy 20 Phillies 2 (God Help Me) 58 78 Phi 0
contrarian23 21 Giants 2 60 76 SF 0
dspahlinger 22 New York Yankees 2's 58 78 NYY 0
markeking 23 My Phillies are No. 1 67 69 Phi 1
loyalcanuck 24 0 Giants of the Stick 66 70 SF 1
------------------ ------ ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- ---------
Owner MLB League 2 Win Loss Franch Rd5
redcped 1 5 Train to Brooklyn 75 61 LAD 1
contrarian23 2 Red Sox 8 65 71 Bos 1
thejuice6 3 Americans and Red Sox On The 2's 77 59 Bos 1
schwarze 4 Dodgers 3's 67 69 LAD 1
pedrocerrano 5 Red Sox xxx9 80 56 Bos 1
toysboys 6 Dodgers 4's 70 66 LAD 1
loyalcanuck 7 Lucky 7 Red Sox 67 69 Bos 1
kstober 8 Red Sox 4's 77 59 Bos 1
urband 9 Dodger Nine 48 88 LAD 0
contrarian23 10 Dodgers 6 71 65 LAD 1
coachgreat1 11 Red Sox One's 67 69 Bos 1
DarthDurron 12 Dodgers 0's 72 64 LAD 1
schwarze 13 Red Sox 0's 79 57 Bos 1
harrelson 14 Huntington 5's (Americans/Red Sox) 78 58 Bos 1
Chisock 15 J4 L2- Dodgers/Robins 2's 60 76 LAD 0
firesalt 16 Dodgers 1s 68 68 LAD 1
darny10 17 Twins 3’s 61 75 Min 0
thebubbaq 18 Twin 6's 57 79 Min 0
DarthDurron 19 Senators/Twins 8's 76 60 Min 1
thejuice6 20 Dodgers On The 8's 63 73 LAD 0
contrarian23 21 Red Sox 6 58 78 Bos 0
redcped 22 I Take the Fifth, Senators 70 66 Min 1
3dayrotation 23 bos, the magic number 68 68 Bos 1
Chisock 24 J4 L2 - Twins/Sens 7's 58 78 Min 0
------------------ ------ ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- ---------
Owner MLB League 3 Win Loss Franch Rd5
SteveIzzy 1 Athletics 2 79 57 Oak 1
thejuice6 2 Athletics On The 9's 87 49 Oak 1
schwarze 3 Athletics 0's 90 46 Oak 1
jetscanes 4 Crazy 8 A's 60 76 Oak 0
loyalcanuck 5 1 Athletic Team 77 59 Oak 1
contrarian23 6 Tigers 7 67 69 Det 1
SAKABAKBRG 7 Tigers #1 79 57 Det 1
redcped 8 Medal 4 Bravery 71 65 Atl 1
schwarze 9 Braves 7's 69 67 Atl 1
toysboys 10 Braves 8's 73 63 Atl 1
kstober 11 Tigers 5's 71 65 Det 1
Relkcirts 12 Braves 5 Alive 70 66 Atl 1
hoopsrus 13 Route 66 Tigers 52 84 Det 0
nocomm999 14 (8) Tigers (8) 58 78 Det 0
contrarian23 15 Braves 9 63 73 Atl 0
DarthDurron 16 Braves 6's 58 78 Atl 0
Chisock 17 J4 - L3 Tigers 2's 56 80 Det 0
ff09 18 Tres Moustaches 56 80 Oak 0
thejuice6 19 Beaneaters and Braves On The 3's 65 71 Atl 1
markeking 20 Tigers x 3 71 65 Det 1
mllama54 21 Athletic 3 58 78 Oak 0
contrarian23 22 A's 5 73 63 Oak 1
pedrocerrano 23 Tigers xxx4 70 66 Det 1
darny10 24 Athletics 7’s 59 77 Oak 0
------------------ ------ ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- ---------
Owner MLB League 4 Win Loss Franch Rd5
contrarian23 1 White Sox 0 68 68 ChW 1
toysboys 2 Cubs 9's 81 55 ChC 1
schwarze 3 White Sox 6's 78 58 ChW 1
pedrocerrano 4 Reds xxx0 54 82 Cin 0
thejuice6 5 Browns and Orioles On The 6's 66 70 Bal 1
kstober 6 Cubs 5's 70 66 ChC 1
Chisock 7 J4 L4 - White Sox 7's 62 74 ChW 0
harrelson 8 Chicag0 Cubs 75 61 ChC 1
contrarian23 9 Orioles 8 71 65 Bal 1
schwarze 10 Cubs 6's 74 62 ChC 1
coachgreat1 11 White Sox Two's 61 75 ChW 0
redcped 12 Cuatro Cincy 70 66 Cin 1
DarthDurron 13 Cubs 7's 66 70 ChC 1
specsman 14 Lucky 7 Reds 61 75 Cin 0
calhoop 15 Juice 4 ALE - Cubs 2s 60 76 ChC 0
cardinaldave 16 Chitown Fives Sox 62 74 ChW 0
toysboys 17 Reds 2's 74 62 Cin 1
dspahlinger 18 Browns/Orioles 9's 48 88 Bal 0
contrarian23 19 White Sox 8 63 73 ChW 0
Chisock 20 J4 L4 - Browns/O's 5's 73 63 Bal 1
urband 21 Browns/O's 4 77 59 Bal 1
3dayrotation 22 8 little cubbies 67 69 ChC 1
thejuice6 23 Reds On The 5's 77 59 Cin 1
loyalcanuck 24 9 White Sox 74 62 ChW 1
------------------ ------ ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- ---------
Owner MLB League 5 Win Loss Franch Rd5
redcped 1 Eight Little Indians 76 60 Cle 1
thejuice6 2 Cardinals On The 4's 65 71 StL 1
kstober 3 Indians 2's 70 66 Cle 1
joerat1 4 Redbird Fives 80 56 StL 1
spinaldog 5 Crazy Eight Cards 78 58 StL 1
schwarze 6 Indians 6's 76 60 Cle 1
contrarian23 7 Indians 7 73 63 Cle 1
firesalt 8 Zero Little Indians 73 63 Cle 1
pedrocerrano 9 Cardinals xxx9 68 68 StL 1
toysboys 10 Indians 4's 56 80 Cle 0
SteveIzzy 11 Pirates 9 63 73 Pit 0
kstober 12 Indians 3's 73 63 Cle 1
mllama54 13 Pirates 7 66 70 Pit 1
winterhawk 14 CLEVELAND NINE 69 67 Cle 1
schwarze 15 Pirates 3's 72 64 Pit 1
contrarian23 16 Pirates 5 65 71 Pit 1
DarthDurron 17 Indians 5's 62 74 Cle 0
loyalcanuck 18 0 Cardinals of Robison Field 64 72 StL 1
nocomm999 19 (2) Cardinals (2) 74 62 StL 1
Chisock 20 J4 L5 - Pirates 2's 61 75 Pit 0
Relkcirts 21 Pirates 1 and done 66 70 Pit 1
thejuice6 22 Pirates On The 6's 45 91 Pit 0
contrarian23 23 Cardinals 7 60 76 StL 0
darny10 24 Cardinals 3’s 77 59 StL 1
------------------ ------ ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- ----------- ---------
Owner MLB League 6 Win Loss Franch Rd5
schwarze 1 Astros 9's 83 53 Hou 1
pedrocerrano 2 Expos/Nationals xxx7 73 63 Was 1
kstober 3 Astro 8"s 62 74 Hou 0
contrarian23 4 Mets 9 68 68 NYM 1
toysboys 5 Mets 8's 79 57 NYM 1
ybjsports 6 Houston 6 80 56 Hou 1
schwarze 7 Astros 4's 77 59 Hou 1
redcped 8 The Mets Fifth Avenue 80 56 NYM 1
nocomm999 9 (5) Padres (5) 60 76 SD 0
calhoop 10 Juice 6 ALE - Senators/Rangers 1s 63 73 Tex 0
contrarian23 11 Expos 2 71 65 Was 1
Chisock 12 J4 L6 - Jays 5's 63 73 Tor 0
DarthDurron 13 Astros 1's 81 55 Hou 1
kstober 14 Mets 6's 59 77 NYM 0
3dayrotation 15 9 little angels 66 70 LAA 1
loyalcanuck 16 Brett's 0 Royals 56 80 KC 0
thejuice6 17 Brewers On The 8's 65 71 Mil 1
thebubbaq 18 KC Royal 9 66 70 KC 1
Jtpsops 19 Zero Dark Bluebird 65 71 Tor 1
contrarian23 20 Angels 4 64 72 LAA 1
urband 21 ExpoNats Zeros 67 69 Mon 1
Relkcirts 22 San Diego 0 Surf & Turf 69 67 SD 1
coachgreat1 23 Rangers Nine's 58 78 Tex 0
beirnej1 24 Angels 2’s 57 79 LAA 0
8.5.5
1/2/2021 10:53 AM

The above is ABSOLUTE PROOF that I don't know what I'm doing when I draft a team...lol. I could have a high draft pick and totally bomb with it - as in Leagues 4 and 5. Or, I can have a lower draft pick and luck into a good thing - as in League 4. I'll bet I spent as much time researching the available teams as anyone and I'm not sure it did me much good. I might just go with gut feelings when drafting for Round Five and say to heck with research...


1/2/2021 12:19 PM
League 4 is really an outlier. I decided to run regression analysis on draft pick number vs wins (thru 136 games), but this time I did it for each league separately. Here are the correlation coefficients for each league. 0% means no correlation at all. 100% means perfect positive correlation. -100% means perfect negative correlation.

League 1: +65.9%
League 2: +34.5%
League 3: +57.5%
League 4: +1.9%
League 5: +46.2%
League 6: +56.2%
1/2/2021 1:33 PM
Thru 136 games, here is the range of "expected wins" for each league (comparing picks 1st vs picking 24th).
.
League 1: 78.8 wins vs 57.4 wins (range 21.4)
League 2: 72.6 wins vs 63.4 wins (range 9.2)
League 3: 77.3 wins vs 58.7 wins (range 18.6)
League 4: 68.3 wins vs 67.8 wins (range 0.5)
League 5: 74.0 wins vs 62.0 wins (range 12.0)
League 6: 75.5 wins vs 60.5 wins (range 15.0)
8.5.5
1/2/2021 1:39 PM
Obviously, the franchises selected to be included in each league drives this. If we switched the Yankees (to league 4) and Cubs (to league 1), the numbers would be totally different.
8.5.5
1/2/2021 1:40 PM
Good stuff Schwarze. Interesting that the last 5 picks in lg 4 all have winning teams.
1/2/2021 6:27 PM
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