This guy went in the 18th round... Topic

I got this guy in the 21st Balentien

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerStats.aspx?pid=10123215
3/10/2021 7:01 PM (edited)
Posted by jwynkoop2424 on 3/10/2021 12:15:00 PM (view original):
This is the ultimate draft by someone else in my world. With the 20th and 21st rounds of the SAME draft !!!!!!
Parque is a projected 87 overall and Moore is projected 93 overall, absolutely insane!

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=10700550

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=10700500







This either shouldn't happen, or is a very fine case that almost anything is not out of the question. The odds of someone getting one of these players in any one draft is already long. Shouldn't really be possible for there even to BE two in one draft.

3/10/2021 7:14 PM
Posted by brianplath on 3/10/2021 10:11:00 AM (view original):
When I've run 20/20 col/hs budgets I miss about ~10% of 1st round players. If that's even close to accurate for the entire player pool, and if at least 10 teams run $20M for HS and another 10 teams for Col, you'd think this just wouldn't happen. Odds would be 1 in every 10 billion players?? (maybe my math is off) 10%*10 teams.

If there's 1,000 players in a draft, then it should only happen once every 10 million drafts? My assumptions might be off and math wasn't my strong suit so feel free to poke holes in this. But even if my assumptions are off by quite a bit, it still seems more likely this is a glitch and shouldn't be happening this frequently.
I've played 55 seasons and I've gotten exactly one of these players in all those drafts. And he wasn't a stud, he was an average SP in the 20th round.

I have no idea when I might be "due" for another one. There are probably guys who've played 100 season and never gotten one. What we're seeing in this thread are the freaks, but they've still been taken from, what, a few thousand drafts?

3/10/2021 7:18 PM
Something I just considered: For everyone saying "how does this even happen?"

These are players going in the 600-700 pick range.

Your draft board shows you 500. For anyone who says "show me my whole draft board", 20 million buys you 500 prospects in College Scouting. If you spend less, you'll get some (or more) ??? prospects. If you spend 20 million HS scouting you'll get 200-250 ??? prospects. So in this regard yes I would agree that seems to limit those who spend 20 mil on College... you're probably not going to draft a ??? unless you open up those bottom rounds of the draft.

Held a draft yesterday and in the 25th round, pick 805, I got the 374th rated prospect out of my 500. Now of course I never even looked at that guy, but what it tells me that if he was still that high on my board that other owners had combinations of rankings which were passing him over 10, 15, 20 times.

Depending on how your draft falls, your 374th guy - who you'll never look at - could slide right to the end. OR, he could go somewhere around 600 - considering that say half the other owners are budgeting "opposite" to you - in which case maybe you start getting those ???.

Point being, it's not just the rankings. First, we all see different rankings. Second, we set up our draft boards entirely individually - not just the rankings, factor in the position thresholds and the signability factors. NOW, you throw in just one of these Unseen Studs, I can see how it would be completely random where he ends up.

I can also begin to see how you could set up a draft board to try to mine one of these players. Some added effort for something that might not even be there. So you could decide if it's worth the effort.

3/11/2021 11:11 AM
Well, he's not Hector Peters....but he's sort of in the ballpark. I drafted Chad Spivey (better link on the next post) https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerBlog.aspx?pid=9093902 in the 24th Round with the 805th pick. I had Zero in College Scouting. He's a Three-Time Cy Young winner in Capra. When I opened his page after the draft that season, I thought it must be a mistake. I still expected his actual numbers to be totally terrible when I opened his page after signing him.

Every season since, I have moved some college ??? arms into the top hundred on my draft board (which I do manually), hoping to hit the jackpot again. Never have. But this one was worth it.

805th...there were only 33 guys drafted after him that season. It's pretty obvious that he wasn't on anybody else's board at all. I have to have been the only GM he was even a ??? for.

I just figure a guy like that made great leaps between the end of the season and draft day...or showing up as a rookie. I sort of like the randomness of it.


3/11/2021 1:49 PM (edited)
3/11/2021 12:39 PM
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This guy went in the 18th round... Topic

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