I just tried offering the minimum I was able to for a group of six players and went 1-for-6. The one I did win saved me about $2.5M, so overall I'm not terribly upset with the outcome.

I feel like this is something we should push for when we get a ‘big’ HBD update. If it is just a coin flip right now maybe have an oscillating scale? You offer 90% you have a 90% chance to win, 75% is like 60, 50% is like 35? Somthing like that.

Posted by damag on 8/13/2021 9:00:00 AM (view original):
Again, I have seen no discernible pattern or trigger to win arbitration. My feeling is that the "program" such as it is, it's a complete 1-to-1, 50-50, absolutely random coin flip.

Agree, except that I think the coin is slightly weighted; I feel like win about 40% and lose about 60%.

Posted by dedelman on 8/13/2021 9:59:00 AM (view original):

Posted by damag on 8/13/2021 9:00:00 AM (view original):
Again, I have seen no discernible pattern or trigger to win arbitration. My feeling is that the "program" such as it is, it's a complete 1-to-1, 50-50, absolutely random coin flip.

Agree, except that I think the coin is slightly weighted; I feel like win about 40% and lose about 60%.

I'd mostly agree with that actually.

Posted by hockey1984 on 8/13/2021 9:52:00 AM (view original):
I feel like this is something we should push for when we get a ‘big’ HBD update. If it is just a coin flip right now maybe have an oscillating scale? You offer 90% you have a 90% chance to win, 75% is like 60, 50% is like 35? Somthing like that.

I don't mind this except if we're talking real life effects, then I don't want anything added that "****** the player off".

Right now I see NO effect that losing an arb has any effect on a player's future negotiations. I wouldn't want any emotion rating added.

Obviously there's no way to prove it, but my years of low balling players every year in Arb tells me that they ask for more in the later years if they lost the years before. Eventually I tweaked my low ball offers to only players I knew I wasn't signing long-term and even later I avoided doing it to players I wasn't planning to keep but would be type a FAs...I didn't want to pay the ridiculous 3rd year arb demands if I lost.

If you arb a guy three times, will he still sign long-term after that third year? Or is it better to lock him up before that arb3?

Posted by Cheno5 on 8/16/2021 3:35:00 AM (view original):
If you arb a guy three times, will he still sign long-term after that third year? Or is it better to lock him up before that arb3?

If his Patience rating is anything below 99, he'll probably walk after a third Arb. Not kidding, I had a 99 guy stay and a 98 guy walk away. If you ever third arb, do so with the full expectation that the player will walk.