National League - League #2
Draft Choice: #8
Draft Slot: #8
Round 1: 1996 Braves / Expos pitching (4th pitching team taken)
Round 2: 1998 Astros / Giants hitting (9th hitting team taken)

Comments:
This is my second team in this league. I had four hitting teams pegged with my top pick... 2004, 2003, 1996 and 2000. I was for-sure taking 1996 if it got to me here, but Chisock grabbed them right in front of me. I really wanted that '96 Kevin Brown season. I almost took 2000 hitting (+K.Brown), but for some reason, I decided to try another pitching-first roster just to mix things up. Although I had 2003 pitching ranked higher than 1996, I liked the SP's better on 1996 and I figured I would end up taking a hitting free agent (top choices Ken Caminiti or Mike PIazza). 2003's pitching value is all tied up in the bullpen. A top two of '96 Maddux and '96 Smoltz is a nice start to a rotation. The bullpen isn't deep though, which could hurt in close games.

With 5 hitting groups already off the board, I had to wait for four more offenses to get selected. One by one, they went and 2000 was still there. With one pick to go before my turn, jrig21 crushed my soul and posted his pick... "2000 Colorado Rockies / Houston Astros Hitting". Damn it. Anyway, I went with '98 which has the killer B's... Bagwell, Biggio and Bonds. This selection also presented me with a tough choice. Which free agent do I take? '96 Ken Caminiti is an upgrade over Bill Mueller (.294 / .382 / .393), Mike Piazza (D- arm) is a huge hitting upgrade over Mayne/Ausmus platoon (both around .270 / .355 / .345) or adding '98 Kevin Brown (257 ip, 1.06 whip 0.21 hr/9) to the rotation, replacing Jeff Fassero. I am already too right-handed so Piazza is out. Mueller isn't terrible, so I went with Kevin Brown.

Prediction:
Once again, I don't feel as strong with a pitching-first team. Had my regular 3B been a little worse than Mueller or had Piazza batted lefty or switch (and wasn't D- arm), I might have improved the offense instead and felt more confident about them. This feels like a .500 team. Predicted record: 82-80

Mid-Season Update
(Thru game 87)

Record: 41-46 .471 (3rd place, 13 games out of first, 9 games out of wildcard)
Offense Rank: 10th in NL (5.1 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 2nd in NL (4.9 runs per game)
Defense: .985 Field% (league avg .987), Plus/Minus plays = 15/15 (league avg 24/22)
1-Run Games: 6-11
Exp Win%: .521
Free agent (real life stats): Kevin Brown (257 ip, .235 oav, 1.07 whip)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 22 starts, 9-6 record, 144 ip, .261 oav, 1.25 whip, 3.30 era

Comments: This team is terrible offensively, ranking 10th in the NL, which shouldn't be surprising considering I took them 9th and added a free agent pitcher. Still, Biggio and Bonds are 200+ OPS points worse than real life. Somehow this team is ranked #2 in pitching despite my SP4 being terrible. Pedro is currently 6-10, with a 6.23 ERA. After getting relegated to mopup duty, maybe it's time to go back to Fassero. Looking at the peripherals, this team should be well over .500. The bullpen has a 5-13 record and my 1-run game record is terrible. A "LongA" reliever wiht an 8.01 ERA (Barry Manual) is leading my team in saves. Even if the regression luck turns positive, the best outlook for this team is a little over .500. Grade: C-
10/30/2021 9:16 PM (edited)
I'll do a short analysis to add some variety here. I had 6 teams with 5 picks in the top 16 draft, so I knew I'd get to pick my leagues and could target groups that I felt provided an advantage by drafting first (or choosing to move down an exact amount). My expectation was that great pitching groups wouldn't last, but a couple surprises saw hitting groups go ahead of some and threw off my plans a bit. I'll do these in order of my draft picks in that round, plus the one assigned.

1. League 6 NL (pick 1)
Pitching (1st): 1944 Cardinals/Reds
Hitting (12th): 1931 Cubs/Cardinals

With the 4th pick in the initial draft, I went for what I felt was one of the clearest choices of a significantly better pitching staff than the rest of the options. It's a really deep staff and jumps out when you look at all those 1930s options. Plus, I was sure I'd still get a decent offense picking 12th.

With seven .300 hitters, I feel that worked out just fine. I've got a lot of "B" defenders, which isn't going to kill me.

My FA is 1944 Dixie Walker, who brings his .357/.434/.529 bat and fills a final OF spot with a much better bat than I'd have otherwise.

2. League 7 NL (pick 4)
Pitching (4th): 1917 Giants/Phillies
Hitting (9th): 1928 Cardinals/Pirates

I would have been happy with any of the 1916-19 pitching staffs, so I could afford to select the 4th pick and try for an offense that wouldn't be too disappointing. I didn't expect the 1923 pitchers to go ahead of me, so in theory I could have been fine picking 5th.

This 1928 lineup has six hitters at .320+ and plenty of depth. Lots of excellent range to help out the pitchers, too. Not as nice as the 1921 that schwarze grabbed, but good enough to produce.

My FA is 1917 Rogers Hornsby, who is a huge upgrade at SS. It's obviously not one of his best seasons, but it helps me significantly. It's strange that I've got Hornsby in these first two leagues, bookends to his career and nowhere near his peak. Also, neither is playing 2B for me.

3. League 3 NL (pick 1)
Pitching (1st): 1981 Dodgers/Astros
Hitting (12th): 1986 Mets/Phillies

This was another league where I saw a couple pitching staffs way ahead of the rest for depth and plenty of offenses I felt I'd be fine with. I totally didn't expect that no one else would take a pitching staff until the 10th choice, and the way it unfolded I feel like you could have picked anywhere in this draft and gotten a combo you like.

The '86 hitting isn't terrific by any means, and I also considered the 83 Braves/Cubs combo that also had weak spots. I'm not thrilled with my DP combo of Juan Samuel and Steve Jeltz in the least. But I've got Von Hayes, Mike Schmidt, Keith Hernandez and Darryl Strawberry, which isn't too bad.

I really had a tough time picking my FA here. I nearly went with Dave Concepcion to replace the pathetic Jeltz, but he was still only a C/B+ fielder and not going to be productive enough to make a big offensive impact regardless. So I tapped Andre Dawson to fill a hole in CF with A+ range, plus power and speed that really help the lineup look better. I had plenty of OF, but none as good. I probably should have thought more about FA options before grabbing this draft spot, but I was trying to keep things moving and liked the '81 staff a lot.

4. League 4 NL (pick 1)
Pitching (1st): 1968 Cardinals/Giants
Hitting (12th): 1967 Cubs/Cardinals

It's always tough for me to turn down a vintage Dodgers pitching staff, but I couldn't pass on Gibson and the depth behind him. Truth is I could have been pretty happy picking several spots lower (pmars got a really solid 1975 pitching staff drafting last), but I do think this one should be the class of the league. The hitting choice turned out to be pretty difficult with both '61 and '71 offering some decent pieces. This won't be a high offense league by any stretch. I just hope I'll have enough.

I have no idea if I chose well with my FA here. There were a lot of good 1B/OF options in 1968, but no help at 2B or SS where I really could have used an upgrade over Glenn Beckert and Don Kessinger. I decided to go with Pete Rose even though he's close in OPS# to the guy he'll displace, Adolfo Phillips. I was ultimately swayed by his ability to get a lot of hits atop the lineup, where he's paired with Curt Flood to try to spark things. Phillips doesn't hit for a great average, and Lou Brock is pretty low in OBP, so I felt better sticking the durable Rose up there. I wish he had decent 2B ratings, but I won't sacrifice that much infield defense just to get his bat in there. He'd better be the sparkplug I need, or else I really bungled this.

5. League 8 AL (pick 6)
Pitching (3rd): 1909 A's/White Sox
Hitting (10th): 1910 Tigers/A's

I didn't really love any other leagues left at this point except the League 6 AL, and I already had an NL team there. I wanted to be in 6 different leagues, so I went here instead. There were two hitting choices I really liked (1912 and 13), and they went 2nd and 4th. I liked quite a few pitching staffs, but I went with the 6th pick largely because if the first 5 owners all went with pitching I'd still get one I liked. Then again, I could have gone with a hitting choice had that materialized, so maybe I overthought this.

The '09 pitching staff is loaded with so many innings I'll be wasting it's almost funny. All the hitting choices had flaws galore at this point, so I went with one headed by a pretty good Cobb and a solid Collins. Lots of excellent range at 2B-3B-SS, but I'll be taking some chances with iron glove Sam Crawford at 1B. Runs are going to be at such a premium in this league, and I just hope these guys can scratch out a few 2-1 and 1-0 wins.

The FA choice here wasn't easy either. Initially I looked at the better hitting Eddie Collins from '09, but it would take away his A+ range season and I didn't want to do that. Basically there were no available impact bats from any teams available (Tigers and Red Sox had them all). So ... I decided to make the pitching staff even better. I had to pick between Russ Ford and Walter Johnson and went with the Big Train for the ~80 additional innings with very similar performance expectations. With him on the staff, there are probably 4 guys in the pen who won't even pitch 10 innings.

6. League 2 NL (pick 3)
Pitching (2nd): 2002 Diamondbacks/Braves
Hitting (11th): 1999 Rockies/Diamondbacks

This was the only league I was assigned to, and I had lots of draft position choices. This league is loaded with offensive powerhouses, so I felt confident leaving hitting for R2. As it turned out, I did that in every single draft. Here I actually gave a lot of thought to the 2005 pitching that fell all the way to the 12th spot in R1 (nice pick, 3day!). The best Maddux seasons didn't have enough depth behind him, I felt. This 2002 combo gives me Unit/Schilling/Millwood with Maddux as an SP4, and the Braves had a heap of solid relievers too.

This offense is pretty darn loaded for the 11th one taken. Here are the HR totals of my lineup: 46-37-26-35-38-35-34-31-11. Ridiculous power, really. A couple soft spots defensively and a few GG guys, too. But when your 8th hitter slugs .518, you figure you can overcome a few errors. What I'm wondering is whether there are really 10 better offenses in this league, in which case my pitchers will really be tested.

The FA call here was pretty easy, even though I didn't really "need" him. How do you not add the '02 Bonds, really? I'm going to lead him off, in fact, with a beast Larry Walker season behind him and six sluggers after that. It's not like the lineup would have been weak with Dante Bichette in there instead, but I didn't love any of the '99 pitching choices enough to give much consideration to anything besides adding Bonds.

Overview: I feel pretty good about keeping all 6 teams moving on to Round 3. If my assessment of my pitching staffs turns out to be good enough, hopefully I'll be drafting high in a couple of those leagues, too.
9/29/2021 1:36 AM
Thanks for posting redcped.

As you noted above, all of the hitting groups are pretty strong in this league. I had to look it up, but I had your '99 combo (w/o 2002 Bonds) rated as slightly below average, barely ahead of the 1998 group that I selected (I think I went with '98 over '99 because I didn't like Helton's D- range at 1B). You are right about their HR prowess though - top 6 in slugging%. The downside is that this group is bottom 3 in OBP. Bonds will help that for sure.
9/29/2021 8:31 AM
American League - League #6
Draft Choice: #5
Draft Slot: #5
Round 1: 1931 Athletics / Senators pitching (4th pitching team taken)
Round 2: 1934 Yankees / Tigers hitting (9th hitting team taken)

Comments:
I think that I've come to the conclusion that I'm o.k. with taking a pitching combo in round 1 as long as a few other pitching combos went ahead of me so I don't get stuck with a hitting combo I don't like. In this case, my first hitting choice, 1939, was taken with pick #1 - then three pitching combos went. I quickly reviewed the hitting groups that might fall to me and decided to grab one of this eras best starting pitchers, 1931 Lefty Grove. His teammate, George Earnshaw is decent as well (for this era). The rest of the pitching isn't great, but that's pretty much the case for most of the 1930's.

I was pleasantly surprised when 1934 hitting made it back to me, not because of their hitting, but because I now get to add a stud free agent, another great lefty pitcher of the 1930's, Lefty Gomez. All of a sudden, I have three really solid SPs. The offense is led by Gehrig and Gehringer. I also have Greenberg's 1.004 OPS but not sure where I can play him. I have .300+ hitters up and down the lineup (as most hitting combos in this league probably do). The defense isn't as good as I usually like to have (mostly B/C types), but it's not god-awful like my 1918 hitting team in league 1A.

Prediction:
The combination of three strong SP's and a strong offense should get this team to at least .500. But every pitcher that will come out of the bullpen is worse than the starter and with all the scoring in this league, I have a sneaky suspicion that there will be many late multi-run blown leads, which will lead to endless frustration. Predicted Record: 83-79.

Mid-Season Update
(Thru game 87)

Record: 42-45 .483 (4th place, 7 games out of first, 7 games out of wildcard)
Offense Rank: 10th in AL (5.5 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 1st in AL (5.2 runs per game)
Defense: .983 Field% (league avg .978), Plus/Minus plays = 12/22 (league avg 31/22)
1-Run Games: 12-14
Exp Win%: .532
Free agent (real life stats): Lefty Gomez (297 ip, .215 oav, 1.13 whip)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 29 starts, 8-8 record, 172 ip, .237 oav, 1.40 whip, 4.45 era

Comments: Sadly, my bullpen woes was accurately predicted in the writeup above. My starting pitchers have a combined record of 27-23, with a 3.82 ERA (497 IPs). My bullpen has a combined record of 15-22 with 5.85 ERA (283 IPs). The team's 4.56 ERA is still ranked first in the A.L. Free agent Lefty Gomez has been a bit disappointing after a nice start. In his defense, his record would be way better if the crappy bullpen didn't blow about 5 potential wins for Gomez. Not sure what I can do other than moving Gomez to the pen and using another crappy pitcher as a starter. Offensively, about what I expected. Grade: C+
10/30/2021 10:17 PM (edited)
American League - League #8
Draft Choice: #4
Draft Slot: #2
Round 1: 1912 Athletics / Red Sox hitting (1st hitting team taken)
Round 2: 1913 Naps / White Sox pitching (12th pitching team taken)

Comments:
This league was one of the first leagues I started drafting from. And so I was not yet aware that I would be one of the few folks to value hitting over pitching. redcped had the #1 option and dropped down to pick #6. This confused me. I started to try and figure out what I was missing. calhoop selected draft slot #1. I had three hitting groups I really likes, 1912, 1911 & 1913. I should have dropped down to 3, but I didn't want to risk dropping to 5. Anyway, I grabbed draft spot #2. No idea why I just didn't go with pick 3. It may not have mattered as picks 1 and 3 were both pitching combos. So I had a really tough choice. I didn't want to be last in pitching but I just really wanted great hitting in the deadball era. What I should have done is take 1913 hitting + Walter Johnson since my pitching would be weaker than most. But I really thought 1912 hitting was better. I do get 400+ inning of lesser talented Ed Walsh as my free agent. In retrospect, I think the hitting difference doesn't warrant passing up a stud Walter season. You're welcome crazyamos.

The pitching I got at the end (1913) is ok. I passed on '07 Joss and '01 C.Young. The top four 1913 pitchers (R.Russell, W.Mitchell, J.Scott, Cicotte) total almost 1200 innings with a 2.41 ERC# and a 1.12 whip#. So as long as I don't use the others (which are terrible), I should be ok there. I should just put them all on rest.

Prediction:
Another example of poor draft slot selection. Had trades been allowed, I would have absolutely tried to trade down. A second look at my roster and my defense isn't even all that great. I got stud versions of Speaker, F.Baker and E.Collins - that's about it. What was I thinking? We're definitely finishing behind crazyamos' 1913 team. Not sure this team will even get to .500. Predicted record: 80-82.

Mid-Season Update
(Thru game 89)

Record: 44-45 .483 (4th place, 7 games out of first, 6 games out of wildcard)
Offense Rank: 3rd in AL (5.0 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 8th in AL (4.6 runs per game)
Defense: .967 Field% (league avg .966), Plus/Minus plays = 61/16 (league avg 46/20)
1-Run Games: 10-20
Exp Win%: .546
Free agent (real life stats): Ed Walsh (414 ip, .231 oav, 1.08 whip)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 31 starts, 9-13 record, 205 ip, .263 oav, 1.30 whip, 4.00 era

Comments: Where do I even start? I picked 1912 over 1913 (and free agent Walter Johnson) because I assumed the 1912 hitting was way better. It turns out, that 1913 team is ranked 1st in the AL in runs scored AND has Walter Johnson. Meanwhile, my $13M Ed Walsh sucks. Can't even be a .500 pitcher despite the third ranked offense behind him. Then, you look at the 10-20 record in 1-run games. Add that to the fact that it's another league that my team is in a tough division (other three teams all over .500). The biggest weakness on the team is my shortstop, Heinie Wagner. He's hitting .244 with 48 errors. I may move Frank Baker to shortstop and start Larry Garner. Baker couldn't possibly be a worse fielder than Heinie. Grade: C
10/31/2021 5:42 PM (edited)
National League - League #3
Draft Choice: #5
Draft Slot: #4
Round 1: 1985 Cardinals / Astros hitting (3rd hitting team taken)
Round 2: 1987 Dodgers / Expos pitching (10th pitching team taken)

Comments:
I hated how this drafting process played out. In many of the other leagues, I had an early pick and stupidly chose to draft early when it would've been better to drop down a bit. In this league, I really wanted a top 3 pick, to select either one of two hitting combos (1976 or 1977) or the clear cut #1 pitching combo (1981). But I drew 5th. Draft slots 1, 2, 3 and 6 were chosen. Now, if I didn't get one of my top 3 choices, I'd much prefer to draft lower because I didn't think there was a lot of difference in the next 4-5 picks. So far, in most leagues, pitching goes early, so I figured one of the two hitting groups would be there. Of course, you can guess what happened. I chose draft slot 4 and the exact three combos I wanted all got taken. Now I'm stuck.

Despite never having any success with '85 Gooden in other leagues, I went with the 1985 hitting group to lock in Gooden as a free agent. Also, I like all the switch hitters. The defense is solid and I love 1985 Willie McGee, but to put it bluntly, the '85 offense sucks. I have Tom Herr playing DH. The Astros hitting adds almost nothing. I chose 1987 pitching because of P.Perez and T.Burke are both studs out of the pen, but the rest of the staff is meh.

Prediction:
Whatever I said about not liking some other of my teams, this team is the favorite to miss round 3. I'm sure Gooden will suck for me again and even if he is good, you need to score to win games and this team will probably finish last in scoring. Predicted record: 70-92.

Mid-Season Update
(Thru game 89)

Record: 53-36 .596 (3rd place, 6 games out of first, 6 games out of wildcard)
Offense Rank: 5th in NL (5.5 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 4th in NL (4.9 runs per game)
Defense: .988 Field% (league avg .985), Plus/Minus plays = 48/3 (league avg 31/24)
1-Run Games: 17-9
Exp Win%: .560
Free agent (real life stats): Dwight Gooden (277 ip, .201 oav, 0.97 whip)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 24 starts, 13-5 record, 155 ip, .244 oav, 1.27 whip, 3.94 era

Comments: I guess I should never estimate the switch-hitter effect. This team is ranked 5th in runs scored, despite ranking below the league average in OPS. Willie McGee (.368 / .401 / .537) is awesome as usual. The pitching has been very good, including free agent Dwight Gooden. The defense is maybe the best in the league. And we've been extremely lucky in 1-run games. Although I may have underestimated this team in the writeup, some negative regression is surely coming. Despite having the third best record in the NL, we're out of the playoffs because of course, I am in another tough division. How the hell can almost every good team I have be in the league's toughest division? Grade: A
10/31/2021 5:56 PM (edited)
National League - League #6
Draft Choice: #6
Draft Slot: #6
Round 1: 1933 Giants / Cubs pitching (4th pitching team taken)
Round 2: 1943 Dodgers / Cardinals hitting (9th hitting team taken)

Comments:
This league was my lowest draft spot of any of the leagues I only had one team in. As a result, I didn't really do a ton of pre-draft research. Instead, I waited until it was my pick, then did some quick research. I knew the top hitting combo I wanted was 1932, but Jtpsops took them with pick #2. When my turn came up, one of my favorite sim players was still there and this combo was clearly the best pitching group left, so I grabbed 1933 Carl Hubbell and the rest of that group. Picking the 4th pitching group meant that I would not be at the bottom of the hitting options, so I could stomach taking pitching in the first round. I was all set to add a $9+M Chuck Klein to whatever offense I ended up with.

1943 hitting fell to me with a stud Musial season, solid overall defense and most importantly, I can add 192 innings of 1.01 whip with free agent Whit Wyatt. He will be used mostly out of the bullpen as that '33 pitching doesn't have much after Hubbell and Schumacher. Hmm, maybe there is something to be said about not overthinking things.

Prediction:
It's ironic that a team I spent the least amount of time on might be one of my better teams. Relatively good starting pitching, a nice 192-inning long-reliever / setup guy, decent offense, good defense. It was hard to leave Chuck Klein off the team, but Wyatt is just too good to not roster. Predicted record: 94-68.

Mid-Season Update
(Thru game 95)

Record: 57-38 .600 (1st place, 4 games ahead of 2nd, 2 games ahead of wildcard)
Offense Rank: 5th in NL (5.2 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 2nd in NL (4.2 runs per game)
Defense: .984 Field% (league avg .977), Plus/Minus plays = 19/31 (league avg 33/25)
1-Run Games: 13-13
Exp Win%: .592
Free agent (real life stats): Whit Wyatt (192 ip, .207 oav, 1.01 whip)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 57 games (all relief), 6-2 record, 13 saves, 101 ip, .227 oav, 1.10 whip, 2.13 era

Comments: This is one of my teams that I thought would do well, that actually is doing well. My free agent pitcher is everything I could hope for. Carl Hubbell (18-6, 3.35 ERA) is 2nd in Cy Young race. Despite the 9th offensive group taken (and no hitting free agent), we're ranked 5th in runs scored in the NL. We're ranked first in fielding percentage which makes up for the poor range (although 15 of my 31 minus plays are Arky Vaughan at SS). We're getting average 1-run game luck and we aren't stuck in a ridiculously tough division. Overall - no complaints. Grade: A
11/2/2021 5:47 PM (edited)
American League - League #7
Draft Choice: #8
Draft Slot: #7
Round 1: 1921 Yankees / Indians hitting (3rd hitting team taken)
Round 2: 1924 Yankees / Senators pitching (10th pitching team taken)

Comments:
This is the fourth league that I have two teams in. My first team grabbed a deadball pitching season (1918) in round 1, but by this turn, there wasn't any pitching I wanted and decided to go hitting first. Of course, there are a lot of good hitting options in this league, so like I did with many other of my hitting-first teams, I checked on the best available free agent pitchers. I found my guy - 348 innings of 1.15 whip with Red Faber. 1921 hitting has the massive Ruth season of course. The rest of the offense is decent and most of the defense is acceptable. It took my 10 seconds to decide on 1921 once my turn came up.

When I saw 1924 pitching was available, I couldn't pass up '24 Walter Johnson. Herb Pennock isn't terrible either. Of course, the rest of the pitchers that will pitch in relief are terrible. My best RP is Curly Ogden (1.24 whip). Due to the 5-pitcher-on-each-team rule, I have 950 innings and $22M of salary on rest or in mopup duty... guys I don't want to sniff the field in a close game. Only pitchers with 1.35 whips or better get to see action for this team.

Prediction:
It makes no sense, but for some reason, I like this team better than my 1918 team. The defense is better, the offense is better. Of course, you cannot compare the pitching. That being said, this team will be in the same division as the teams with the top two picks so will have to somehow be better than two deadball pitching teams. Sure, those teams' hitting won't be as potent, but my guess is both will end up with 90+ wins. That makes this team a third place team at best. Prediction: 85-77.

Mid-Season Update
(Thru game 95)

Record: 52-43 .547 (1st place, 1 games ahead of 2nd, 1 game ahead of wildcard)
Offense Rank: 8th in AL (5.7 runs.per game)
Pitching Rank: 4th in AL (5.3 runs per game)
Defense: .979 Field% (league avg .975), Plus/Minus plays = 43/23 (league avg 46/23)
1-Run Games: 14-13
Exp Win%: .533
Free agent (real life stats): Red Faber (348 ip, .242 oav, 1.15 whip)
Free Agent Sim Stats: 31 starts, 14-10 record, 210 ip, .284 oav, 1.48 whip, 4.67 era

Comments: 3rd hitting group taken (but ranks 8th in scoring) and 10th pitching group taken (but ranks 4th in runs allowed). Makes sense. I guess this is all due to taking a pitching free agent instead of a hitting free agent. But Red Faber has been just so-so (his ERA is about league average). Walter Johnson has been a stud (15-7, 3.53 ERA, ranked 12th). The rest of the pitching not good. But I guess that's pretty much true for this entire league. Hitting-wise, '21 Ruth is great as expected (ranked 2nd in OPS). But nobody else (except part-time catcher Schang) is doing anything. Tris Speaker (.977 OPS in real life) is at .749 OPS. Overall, this team is on a pace to win 88 games, so a little bit better than expected. Grade: B+
11/2/2021 6:02 PM (edited)
So here's the $100,000 question. How many of my teams' win projections will be over vs under the actual result? Am I being overconfident or am I being overly pessimistic? Cast your vote and pick one the four choices described below.
.
(1) He is too confident. Over half his teams will finish with a significantly* worse W-L record than his prediction.
.
(2) He is too pessimistic. Over half his teams will finish with a significantly* better W-L record than his prediction.
.
(3) Seems about right. Over half his teams will finish within +/-2 wins of his projection.
.
(4) None of the above. He's just guessing. Basic math says he'll probably be high 35-40% of the time, too low 35-40% of the time, and very close 20-30% of the time
.
*I define significantly as a difference of 3 wins.
Votes: 4
(Last vote received: 9/29/2021 10:40 PM)
9/29/2021 12:49 PM
I know jack sh*t about projections. In the wis championship, the team I thought would do best was my worst and the team I was most worried about was my best.

As a side note to your commentaries, that 1961 AL Hitting was a no-doubt #1 pick. When I saw them selected, I was careful to not choose a hitting team in your division. That was the only time in all my leagues where I paid attention to divisional alignment.

Also, I was very happy to grab that 1977 NL hitting in NL 3. It seemed to have tricked juice as well as he has originally posted "didn't see that coming", but then he ended up selecting 1976 hitting. You must have been bummed when you saw him do that. Mostly, there were a lot of BAD hitting teams in that draft and I really didn't want to get stuck with one of those.

In AL4, I picked pitching with my 2nd round pick. I narrowed the pick down to two teams. The tie breaker was that a couple of the starting pitchers could rake and the other team was post DH-rule and all the pitchers had no batting average. It's a very small small thing, but it is a no DH league.
9/29/2021 7:02 PM
I had a general strategy to go pitching where I could, but if no staff stood out or had a stud in the remaining options, then I tried to find a good hitting year that offered a great SP FA option.

The only one I really had a specific plan for going in was League 1, where, as schwarze mentioned, I had the 2nd overall pick and was able to select my league. Being able to get Verlander, Cole and Greinke from one team, with Bauer, Bieber and a stud bullpen felt like it really set me apart from the pack pitching-wise. Plus I had FA options in Betts, Trout and Semien to compliment whichever offfense I took. As it happens, the 2019 offense I ended up with did not have a good SS. I was able to add an A/A SS to a great pitching staff. I'm excited for that league, among others.
10/1/2021 6:26 PM (edited)
Yep, you should crush that league (which is League #1).
10/1/2021 8:20 AM
So the team in the league I was assigned to of course is my best team. And the one I picked first is my worst.
10/9/2021 6:28 PM
Took a while, but I posted a mid-season update for each of my teams (within the original thread). I'm off quite a bit on a few teams, but am surprisingly close on many of my predictions.

Final Results: Not going to post each team's final record, but it looks like option D was the correct answer to the poll question. 7 of my teams were +/- 4 wins from projected. With 7 teams, I was too optimistic and with 6 teams, I too pessimistic. Overall, I projected 1730 wins (86.5 per team) and I ended up with 1717 wins (85.9 wins per team). Ironically, thru 155 games, my teams were on a pace to win exactly 86.5 wins per team. Then we sh*t the bed the last 7 game as my teams combined to finish 61-79. Brutal finish.

Based on my cumulative "Expected" winning%, my 20 teams should have averaged 87.0 wins, so I was a bit on the unlucky side.

Some additional stats on my playoffs teams.
8 teams made the playoffs: Avg wins of those 8 teams = 92.8
.
2 teams lost in the first round: Avg wins of those 2 teams = 95.5
3 teams lost in the LCS: Avg wins of those 3 teams = 93.7
2 teams lost in the WS: Avg wins of those 2 teams = 91.5
1 team won the WS: Number wins of that team - 87
12/5/2021 3:53 PM (edited)
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