Change My Mind: Hitter Fatigue Means Nothing Topic

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https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=466091&page=4&TopicsPage=0

Based on these posts made in 2013 (I don't know if hitter fatigue is different now, but I doubt it), it's non-linear and affects fielding more than hitting early on. I've usually prioritized keeping pitchers at 100%, position players at 93%+ (with a few exceptions).
1/2/2022 6:19 PM
Posted by RedRaiderLaw on 1/1/2022 3:18:00 AM (view original):
Going back to the example in my first post, same league, there are 2 instances of 2021 Frank Schwindel. First is full season for the one being played despite fatigue (home stadium is Busch II (.94)); the second example is on a team where his fatigue is managed to keep him at 100% (home is Exposition Park (.98)). Neither of these are on my team; I'm simply making observations as I try to learn more about the game..

Regular Season Batting Stats
Date Opponent % AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SF SH HBP SB/SBA AVG OBP SLG Box
12/8 am AAA Heroes 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .000 .000 .000 view
12/8 pm AAA Heroes 100 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0/0 .000 .000 .000 view
12/9 pm @Rolling the Dice 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .000 .000 .000 view
12/9 pm2 @Rolling the Dice 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .000 .000 .000 view
12/10 am Heroes & Zeros 100 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .125 .125 .125 view
12/10 pm2 Heroes & Zeros 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .111 .111 .111 view
12/11 am @Osoria Gorge 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .100 .100 .100 view
12/11 pm @Osoria Gorge 100 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .182 .182 .182 view
12/11 pm2 @Osoria Gorge 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0/0 .182 .250 .182 view
12/12 am Scrub a dub dub 100 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/1 .250 .308 .250 view
12/12 pm Scrub a dub dub 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .231 .286 .231 view
12/13 am Scrub a dub dub 100 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .286 .333 .286 view
12/13 pm2 AAA Plus One 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .267 .313 .267 view
12/14 pm2 @Russ & Chuck 100 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .313 .353 .375 view
12/15 am Russ & Chuck 100 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .353 .389 .412 view
12/15 pm MINOR LEAGUE SURPRISE 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .333 .368 .389 view
12/15 pm2 @MINOR LEAGUE SURPRISE 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .316 .350 .368 view
12/16 am @Insufficient Funds 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .300 .333 .350 view
12/16 pm @Insufficient Funds 100 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .333 .364 .381 view
12/17 am @Insufficient Funds 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .318 .348 .364 view
12/17 pm @Do You Feel Lucky? 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .304 .333 .348 view
12/17 pm2 Do You Feel Lucky? 100 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .308 .333 .346 view
12/18 am @Farrell/Ferrell 100 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .290 .313 .323 view
12/18 pm Farrell/Ferrell 100 5 2 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .361 .378 .417 view
12/18 pm2 Buckle Up, Buddy 100 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .317 .333 .366 view
12/19 am Buckle Up, Buddy 100 5 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0/0 .326 .340 .370 view
12/19 pm Buckle Up, Buddy 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .319 .333 .362 view
12/19 pm2 @Miserly 100 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .327 .340 .365 view
12/20 am Miserly 100 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .304 .316 .339 view
12/20 pm @Maya Buttreeks 100 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .283 .295 .317 view
12/20 pm2 Maya Buttreeks 100 4 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .281 .292 .359 view
12/21 am @Ed & Lance 100 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .279 .290 .353 view
12/21 pm @Ed & Lance 100 4 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0/0 .292 .311 .361 view
12/21 pm2 @Ed & Lance 97 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .289 .308 .355 view
12/22 am The Splinter, Eck and pray for a Wreck! 94 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .291 .309 .380 view
12/22 pm The Splinter, Eck and pray for a Wreck! 92 3 0 3 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0/0 .317 .349 .402 view
12/22 pm2 The Splinter, Eck and pray for a Wreck! 88 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .325 .356 .410 view
12/23 am @Lucky AAA ~~~ 90 4 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 1/1 .322 .359 .437 view
12/23 pm2 @Lucky AAA ~~~ 88 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .308 .344 .418 view
12/24 am @Say When 86 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .315 .351 .424 view
12/24 pm Say When 87 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .312 .347 .419 view
12/24 pm2 Managing Chaos 88 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .316 .350 .418 view
12/25 am @Managing Chaos 85 5 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .311 .343 .408 view
12/25 pm @Heroes & Zeros 81 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .299 .330 .393 view
12/25 pm2 @Heroes & Zeros 79 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .297 .328 .387 view
12/26 am @Heroes & Zeros 77 4 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .304 .333 .400 view
12/26 pm @Scrub a dub dub 75 4 2 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0/0 .328 .360 .429 view
12/27 am @Scrub a dub dub 75 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .317 .349 .415 view
12/27 pm @AAA Plus One 73 5 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .313 .343 .414 view
12/27 pm2 @AAA Plus One 70 5 4 5 0 0 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 1/1 .338 .371 .504 view
12/28 am @AAA Plus One 67 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .336 .368 .496 view
12/28 pm2 Insufficient Funds 67 5 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .345 .376 .500 view
12/29 am Insufficient Funds 65 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .331 .361 .480 view
12/29 pm Walsh's Wombats 62 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .322 .352 .467 view
12/30 pm Rolling the Dice 65 4 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .327 .356 .474 view
12/30 pm2 Rolling the Dice 63 5 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .329 .357 .472 view
12/31 am @AAA Heroes 61 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0/0 .321 .353 .461 view
Season Totals -- 165 23 53 6 1 5 23 8 19 0 0 0 2/3 .321 .353 .461 --


Regular Season Batting Stats
Date Opponent % AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SF SH HBP SB/SBA AVG OBP SLG Box
12/8 pm The Splinter, Eck and pray for a Wreck! 100 3 1 1 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0/0 .333 .600 1.333 view
12/8 pm2 The Splinter, Eck and pray for a Wreck! 100 5 2 2 2 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0/0 .375 .455 1.000 view
12/10 pm2 AAA Heroes 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .333 .417 .889 view
12/11 pm @Ed & Lance 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .300 .385 .800 view
12/11 pm2 @Ed & Lance 100 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .364 .429 .818 view
12/12 pm @AAA Plus One 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .333 .400 .750 view
12/12 pm2 @AAA Plus One 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .308 .375 .692 view
12/13 pm @Scrub a dub dub 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .286 .353 .643 view
12/13 pm2 @Scrub a dub dub 100 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .333 .389 .667 view
12/14 pm @Scrub a dub dub 100 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .375 .421 .688 view
12/14 pm2 @Say When 100 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .389 .429 .667 view
12/15 pm Walsh's Wombats 100 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .421 .455 .737 view
12/15 pm2 @Walsh's Wombats 100 1 1 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .450 .478 .800 view
12/16 am No Whammies 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .429 .458 .762 view
12/16 pm2 No Whammies 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .409 .440 .727 view
12/17 pm @Managing Chaos 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .391 .423 .696 view
12/17 pm2 Managing Chaos 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .375 .407 .667 view
12/18 pm Maya Buttreeks 100 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .400 .429 .680 view
12/19 am Heroes & Zeros 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .385 .414 .654 view
12/19 pm Heroes & Zeros 100 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0/0 .367 .412 .600 view
12/19 pm2 @Russ & Chuck 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .355 .400 .581 view
12/20 am Russ & Chuck 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .344 .389 .563 view
12/20 pm @Do You Feel Lucky? 100 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .364 .405 .576 view
12/21 pm @Buckle Up, Buddy 100 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .351 .390 .541 view
12/21 pm2 @Buckle Up, Buddy 100 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .368 .405 .553 view
12/22 am Osoria Gorge 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .359 .395 .538 view
12/22 pm Osoria Gorge 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .350 .386 .525 view
12/22 pm2 Osoria Gorge 100 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .366 .400 .537 view
12/23 am @Rolling the Dice 100 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .326 .360 .478 view
12/23 pm @Rolling the Dice 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .319 .353 .468 view
12/23 pm2 @Rolling the Dice 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .313 .346 .458 view
12/24 am @Interesting Conundrum 100 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .288 .321 .423 view
12/24 pm Interesting Conundrum 100 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0/0 .288 .333 .423 view
12/24 pm2 Farrell/Ferrell 100 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .302 .345 .434 view
12/25 am @Farrell/Ferrell 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .296 .339 .426 view
12/25 pm @AAA Heroes 100 5 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .305 .344 .424 view
12/25 pm2 @AAA Heroes 100 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .317 .354 .450 view
12/26 pm AAA Plus One 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .311 .348 .443 view
12/27 pm Scrub a dub dub 100 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0/0 .292 .329 .415 view
12/27 pm2 Scrub a dub dub 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .288 .324 .409 view
12/28 am Scrub a dub dub 100 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .271 .307 .386 view
12/28 pm @No Whammies 100 5 2 3 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .293 .325 .440 view
12/28 pm2 @No Whammies 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0/0 .289 .321 .434 view
12/29 am @No Whammies 100 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .299 .329 .442 view
12/29 pm Toad, the Wet Sprocket 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .295 .325 .436 view
12/29 pm2 @Toad, the Wet Sprocket 100 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .289 .318 .422 view
12/30 pm Lucky AAA ~~~ 100 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .287 .315 .414 view
12/30 pm2 Lucky AAA ~~~ 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0/0 .287 .323 .414 view
12/31 am @The Splinter, Eck and pray for a Wreck! 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .284 .319 .409 view
12/31 pm2 @The Splinter, Eck and pray for a Wreck! 100 5 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .301 .333 .452 view
1/1 am Ed & Lance 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0/0 .298 .330 .447 view
Season Totals -- 94 16 28 8 0 2 14 5 13 1 0 0 0/0 .298 .330 .447 --
And also, to be fair, I this is a horrible league to use as an example of fatigue effects. Most of these teams play closer to $60m, not $80m, and a significant number of pitchers are low quality. My best pitcher is ‘96 Danny Darwin and my 100% ‘87 Ezra Sutton is hitting .353/.392/.471 through 166 PA.

I’d guess half the pitchers in the league are 4-5 effectiveness AAA pitchers. And (without looking) I’d guess the Frank at 100% has probably faced a greater share of the Ed Walsh’s in the league.
1/3/2022 11:15 AM
Grizzly Law: Even a small advantage is HUGE in the playoffs. It is why I go to extreme lengths to stay at 100% for all my starters. I mean, deep in he playoffs or TOC. You have to let them run obviously.

As for changing our mind? This LAW is the major component of why my play-off winning PCT is higher than my regular season.
1/3/2022 12:40 PM
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I am running an OL team right now to test this.
3/14/2022 2:03 PM
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It was once revealed that a .300 hitter loses .0015 in batting average for every 1% drop in stamina. If you believe everything we're told.
Might not be noticable in a small sample size.
3/14/2022 8:51 PM
Contrarian had a post about this once before, I think using George Brett as an example and using excel to simulate coin flips to show a “range” than can be expected.

But using that information (assuming it’s accurate), you could say that right now, instead of being a RL .373 hitter, Iglesias at 70% would be a .328 hitter. I think it’s perfectly reasonable for a “.328” hitter to perform well above that when playing in a hitters park like Baker Bowl.
3/15/2022 11:42 PM
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 1/2/2022 6:19:00 PM (view original):
https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=466091&page=4&TopicsPage=0

Based on these posts made in 2013 (I don't know if hitter fatigue is different now, but I doubt it), it's non-linear and affects fielding more than hitting early on. I've usually prioritized keeping pitchers at 100%, position players at 93%+ (with a few exceptions).
IMO, this is how it should be. Looking at real life - let's say a player has played in 20 straight games and is tired. It'll likely slow him a bit on the field (range) and the bases. But one AB at the plate doesn't really take a ton of physical effort. Most hitters can likely perform without much deficiency at the plate if they're tired.
3/16/2022 2:20 PM
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Change My Mind: Hitter Fatigue Means Nothing Topic

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