Draft Strategy & Free Agent Data & Projections Topic

Of course, the earlier picks would tend to have a better score than the later picks. Here is a grid that shows stdev score by draft pick... of course, all these are based on my guess as who the free agent should be. I will re-calculate once more information is known.
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Pick Teams StDev ERC# OPS# Defense
---------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
1 4 1.06 0.67 0.38 0.07
2 4 1.01 0.46 0.49 0.23
3 4 0.81 1.04 -0.24 0.04
4 4 1.15 0.14 1.32 -1.26
5 4 -0.05 0.33 -0.52 0.58
6 4 0.08 0.33 -0.33 0.33
7 4 0.46 -0.23 0.60 0.35
8 4 0.36 0.25 0.31 -0.79
9 4 -0.02 -0.11 0.15 -0.24
10 4 -0.20 -0.48 0.07 0.87
11 4 0.58 0.27 0.40 -0.35
12 4 -0.26 0.21 -0.36 -0.44
13 4 -0.19 -0.10 -0.02 -0.29
14 4 0.47 0.00 0.29 0.74
15 4 -0.13 0.10 -0.31 0.28
16 4 0.05 0.42 -0.15 -0.90
17 4 -0.77 -0.80 0.13 -0.38
18 4 -1.08 -0.06 -1.15 0.52
19 4 0.09 -0.19 0.20 0.30
20 4 -0.37 -0.55 0.19 -0.03
21 4 -0.77 -0.72 -0.02 -0.08
22 4 -0.71 -0.52 -0.26 0.26
23 4 -0.98 -0.52 -0.53 0.27
24 4 -0.59 0.05 -0.62 -0.07
2/8/2022 3:42 PM
I still haven't completed my 1959 team. I am honestly trying to decide between 6 different free agents, 3 pitchers and 3 hitters, 2 starters, 1 closer, 2 outfielders and a second baseman. It's a lot to consider; I know I need pitching, I know I need a closer, I love '59 Aaron, I need left-handed hitting, I could get one and shore up my 2B defense.... It goes on, a closer would help me maybe win the games I should, my lineup really only has 1 good LH bat, most of the pitching I will see is RH, did I mention I love '59 Aaron?, '59 Aaron does nothing for me defensively and I'm full up with good RH batters... It goes on....
2/8/2022 5:05 PM
I flipped a nickel and got 1894.
2/8/2022 5:18 PM
Once the rosters are all entered, I will post what I thought the free agents would be. At this point, I'll be lucky to hit 50% accuracy.
2/8/2022 5:23 PM
I got started weeks ago in setting up a sheet to record my research, knocked out League 1 and half of League 2 ... and then got really busy and suddenly found the drafts starting without being nearly ready enough. I hate being the guy holding things up, and sometimes I've just had to be, but I think I caught up reasonably well by being able to ignore teams already taken or ones that didn't pass my initial sniff test. I also swapped a League 3 pick for a League 2 pick just so I could draft faster, as I would have held League 3 up for a long time. I like the era better, but it was the best way to handle it at the time. I had 6 teams ever since Round 1, and they all advanced easily enough, so at least I get to be in each league again even if a couple look pretty doomed.

I never did rank teams in each league, but I did build rosters when I got down to 2-4 choices and needed to really see them. My spreadsheet has a column where I noted the ERC# ranges for the best SP and RP. Then I noted the IP/ERC# of the best FA options. For the hitting I broke down the OPS# of likely useful players into above 1.000, .900-1.000, and .800-.900, then noted the strong and weak positions for each season. Then I went through the FA options and noted where there was help at the weakest spots or a great option elsewhere. As I went through each year I marked them with a bold color for really liked the staff or lineup and a lighter one for one I could live with. No mark meant you didn't really get considered.

Not super scientific, but it gave me enough data to eyeball comparisons and narrow down my choices at each slot. Then roster building made the final call.

League 1, Pick 3: 1911 + Honus Wagner
This was one of the few seasons I had color-marked both the lineup and pitching. The best FA pitcher was probably Red Ames (225 IP, 2.25 ERC#), but my middle infield was definitely the weakest place. Wagner leaped out as the best addition to the lineup. Not gonna overthink that.

League 1, Pick 9: 1920 + Shoeless Joe
It was nice to have two decent picks in the league I'd done the most research in, but the 1911 choice really left me with a difficult guess this early of whether I'd be able to have my teams in opposite leagues. I really thought about the 1890s teams to get the best one of them and try to game out a division race, but I couldn't pull the trigger on 1894 or 1895. I notice no one else did for a while either, so probably a wise choice. This 1920 team has 4 good pitchers with 1200 innings, and then I have 1200 more innings of mostly wasted salary. The best FA pitcher was Dolf Luque (220 IP, 2.55 ERC#), and I couldn't see that making sense. The OF was the weakest offensive area, so enter Jackson (1.021 OPS#) to liven things up.

League 2, Pick 5: 1927 + Travis Jackson
I was eyeing this team from the outset as a solid choice at this spot. The top 3-4 pitchers have about 1100 pretty good innings with low walk rates, though just as with 1920 the dropoff after that to weak arms is fairly steep. Would Wilcy Moore help here? Sure he would. But the one spot in the lineup that is painfully lacking is SS. I couldn't stomach the defense I'd be stuck with, particularly with pitchers who put the ball in play so much. Jackson has A+ range and an .842 OPS#, so he helps the lineup too. Sure there are better hitters out there, but his plus plays will really come in handy on this team. The rest of the lineup has no pop, but we'll walk a lot and take advantage of the many soft arms in our league.

League 2, Pick 13: 1950 + Jackie Robinson
I definitely wanted to try to split my leagues here, and I built a lot of rosters before making this choice. Both 1953 and 1955 tempted me, as did 1945. But with 1954 and 1957 going so early it was a terrible idea to wind up in that division. So I settled on this fairly balanced squad. I can't say I'm excited by the lack of speed or mediocre defense, but there's a little pop throughout the lineup at least. I'll likely have to play Musial in LF even though he's my best defensive 1B, as I have two other 1B in Torgeson and Kluszewski who need spots (Klu to DH, at least against RHP). Second base was a bigger hole to me so I went with Jackie there instead of an OF upgrade. The D+ range frustrates me, as does his definitely-not-accurate 66 speed, but at least he's not going to make many errors.

League 3, Pick 20: 1960 + Mickey Mantle
The shame of trading my early pick in this league is missing out on one of my favorite eras. You can't be too excited about anything at 20th pick, and this was no exception. I gave 1965 and 1973 good looks as I waited for my pick, and I settled on '73 as my choice. And of course pmars took that at pick 19. Back to the drawing board. I couldn't drum up much enthusiasm for the 1965 hitting, and I notice no one else could either. Not that 1960 is so thrilling, but there's enough usable pitching and a few solid bats. I'm adding Mantle in hopes his power can have an impact, and he can play CF occasionally with B+ range if I need him to. There really were no impact FA pitchers who were enough of an upgrade.

League 4, Pick 12: 2008 + Carlos Beltran
Right in the middle of the draft with plenty of solid options left but also not much to separate the teams at this point. I liked 2021 a bit better in some ways, but I was scared off by the innings challenges and Tatis' terrible glove at SS. I haven't used any 2021 players yet, and keeping a pitching staff going looked like a real battle and would also force me to use only 12-13 hitters and make difficult calls there, too. This 2008 team has a competent rotation and bullpen (though no real aces), and I went with 13 pitchers after all in order to secure a safe number of innings. But it worked better here because I can get away with a short bench easily enough. The lineup has loads of power, though it leans a bit too righty-heavy. Beltran fills a big hole in CF and brings a switch bat and speed to the table, too. All in all, I think it could be competitive ... but that's largely going to depend on where schwarze's teams get swapped. Putting his top pick 2011 into my division basically sinks me. I couldn't game out divisions at Pick 12, so it is what it is.

So turns out all my FA are hitters, which makes sense because I almost always start off with pitching staffs I find acceptable enough. And some of those years just screamed out for help at particular spots. I'm sure this is the round where I start to lose teams in the tournament, but I'd be thrilled to get 3-4 through somehow.
2/9/2022 12:46 AM
The following posts will summarize some of the roster decisions made.
2/20/2022 3:33 PM
Here is the distribution of free agents selected. Exactly half are pitchers...
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Position Count Avg Salary
C 1 4,599,150
1B 8 7,585,059
2B 7 8,028,991
3B 4 7,795,842
SS 9 7,166,590
OF 19 7,729,147
SP 47 8,095,759
RP 1 6,648,047
Tot/Avg 96 7,824,664
Max 8,994,829
Min 4,599,150
2/20/2022 3:33 PM
I did a very poor job predicting the free agent for each team. Out of 96 teams, I got 45 correct, but if you exclude my 15 teams, that's 30 right out 81 teams for a hit rate of 37%.
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Owner .. Year .. Free Agent .. Salary .. Position .. My Projected FA
razorclams 1894 Sam Thompson 8,883,846 OF Jock Menefee
firesalt 1895 Sadie McMahon 5,937,127 SP Sadie McMahon
joert1 1896 Cupid Childs 8,198,730 2B Billy Rhines
kstober 1898 Al Maul 8,173,771 SP Al Maul
thejuice6 1899 Buck Freeman 6,190,693 OF Jesse Burkette
calhoop 1900 Rube Waddell 7,549,208 SP Rube Waddell
schwarze 1901 Jesse Burkett 8,596,778 OF Jesse Burkette
schwarze 1902 Ed Siever 7,638,033 SP Ed Siever
nocomm999 1903 Honus Wagner 8,185,864 SS Nap Lajoie
mllama54 1904 Willie Keeler 4,963,047 OF Mordecai Brown
kstober 1905 Honus Wagner 8,964,654 SS Honus Wagner
glowguy 1906 Honus Wagner 7,102,468 SS Honus Wagner
Chisock 1908 Roger Bresnahan 4,599,150 C Roger Bresnahan
nocomm999 1910 Eddie Collins 7,948,432 2B Eddie Collins
redcped 1911 Honus Wagner 6,050,416 SS Red Ames
mllama54 1912 Honus Wagner 7,694,767 SS Honus Wagner
schwarze 1913 Joe Jackson 7,691,908 OF Joe Jackson
DarthDurron 1914 Ray Caldwell 7,291,663 SP Ernie Shore
SteveIzzy 1917 Tris Speaker 8,512,907 OF Rogers Hornsby
pedrocerrano 1919 Ty Cobb 7,799,395 OF Rogers Hornsby
redcped 1920 Joe Jackson 8,653,483 OF Joe Jackson
pmars2001 1922 Eppa Rixey 8,172,987 SP Ken Williams
crazyamos 1924 Eppa Rixey 8,351,895 SP Eppa Rixey
toysboys 1925 Dazzy Vance 8,605,705 SP Dazzy Vance
Chisock 1926 Pete Alexander 5,802,061 SP Lou Gehrig
redcped 1927 Travis Jackson 5,011,243 SS Wilcy Moore
nocomm999 1928 Lefty Grove 8,744,022 SP Lefty Grove
kstober 1931 Lefty Gomez 8,021,729 SP Bill Walker
pedrocerrano 1933 Hal Schumacher 8,311,090 SP Hal Schumacher
Jtpsops 1935 Buddy Myer 7,953,151 2B Bill Swift
markeking 1936 Charlie Gehringer 8,790,578 2B Charlie Gehringer
DarthDurron 1937 Cliff Melton 8,063,317 SP Bill Dickey
mllama54 1939 Jimmie Foxx 8,302,063 1B Ted Williams
schwarze 1940 Paul Derringer 8,618,640 SP Paul Derringer
3dayrotation 1942 Johnny Pesky 6,482,485 SS Charlie Keller
thejuice6 1943 Lou Boudreau 6,625,769 SS Whit Wyatt
ronthegenius 1944 Snuffy Stirnweiss 8,774,968 2B Snuffy Stirnweiss
schwarze 1945 Nels Potter 8,946,324 SP Nels Potter
toysboys 1946 Hank Greenberg 6,033,916 1B Spud Chandler
thejuice6 1947 Ralph Kiner 8,676,535 OF Ewell Blackwell
redcped 1950 Jackie Robinson 6,049,630 2B Phil Rizzuto
schwarze 1951 Ted Williams 7,673,317 OF Ted Williams
joerat1 1952 Bobby Shantz 8,977,320 SP Stan Musial
mllama54 1953 Ted Kluszewski 5,744,006 1B Mickey Vernon
schwarze 1954 Mike Garcia 8,955,474 SP Mike Garcia
calhoop 1955 Ted Williams 7,509,702 OF Ernie Banks
glowguy 1956 Whitey Ford 7,192,211 SP Yogi Berra
DarthDurron 1957 Frank Sullivan 7,554,309 SP Frank Sullivan
crazyamos 1958 Whitey Ford 7,377,777 SP Whitey Ford
ybjsports 1959 Hank Aaron 8,255,425 OF Art Ditmar
redcped 1960 Mickey Mantle 7,518,171 OF Don Drysdale
schwarze 1963 Willie Mays 8,484,139 OF Willie Mays
darny10 1964 Ron Santo 8,072,942 3B Ron Santo
DarthDurron 1966 Gary Peters 7,390,410 SP Gary Peters
nocomm999 1967 Joe Horlen 8,717,662 SP Joe Horlen
glowguy 1968 Gaylord Perry 8,899,407 SP Bill Freehan
schwarze 1969 Andy Messersmith 8,416,149 SP Andy Messersmith
mllama54 1970 Carl Yastrzemski 7,681,727 1B Ken Sanders
pedrocerrano 1971 Hank Aaron 7,503,518 1B Joe Torre
thejuice6 1972 Billy Williams 7,181,321 OF Bobby Murcer
pmars2001 1973 Jim Palmer 8,826,652 SP Don Sutton
Jtpsops 1975 Fred Lynn 7,792,886 OF Rod Carew
schwarze 1976 Joe Morgan 8,487,445 2B Joe Morgan
parking31 1977 Mike Schmidt 8,120,902 3B Mike Schmidt
SteveIzzy 1978 Mike Caldwell 8,894,610 SP Mike Caldwell
DarthDurron 1979 Ron Guidry 6,582,272 SP George Brett
schwarze 1982 Robin Yount 8,381,647 SS Robin Yount
toysboys 1983 Wade Boggs 7,433,553 3B Wade Boggs
kstober 1985 Rickey Henderson 8,188,101 OF Wade Boggs
ronthegenius 1986 Mark Eichhorn 6,648,047 RP Mike Witt
wallypipp 1987 Mike Scott 7,474,141 SP Ozzie Smith
markeking 1989 Will Clark 7,691,389 1B Kevin Mitchell
markeking 1991 Barry Bonds 6,528,637 OF Ryne Sandberg
schwarze 1993 Greg Maddux 8,761,923 SP Greg Maddux
3dayrotation 1994 David Cone 8,231,370 SP David Cone
schwarze 1996 Greg Maddux 8,407,161 SP Greg Maddux
Chisock 1998 Pedro Martinez 7,527,703 SP Chipper Jones
toysboys 1999 Kevin Millwood 8,606,160 SP Roberto Alomar
DarthDurron 2001 Freddy Garcia 7,507,681 SP Pedro Martinez
pmars2001 2002 Pedro Martinez 8,994,829 SP Pedro Martinez
mllama54 2003 Todd Helton 8,984,666 1B Todd Helton
kstober 2004 Albert Pujols 8,739,185 1B Albert Pujols
pedrocerrano 2005 Roger Clemens 8,948,938 SP Roger Clemens
nocomm999 2006 Johan Santana 8,102,194 SP Johan Santana
SteveIzzy 2007 Jake Peavy 8,635,902 SP Alex Rodriguez
redcped 2008 Carlos Beltran 7,753,499 OF Chipper Jones
ybjsports 2009 Tim Lincecum 8,869,602 SP Tim Lincecum
ronthegenius 2010 Cliff Lee 6,812,030 SP Felix Hernandez
schwarze 2011 Clayton Kershaw 8,874,295 SP Clayton Kershaw
thejuice6 2012 Miguel Cabrera 7,555,969 3B Clayton Kershaw
urband 2013 Max Scherzer 8,043,795 SP Matt Harvey
schwarze 2014 Johnny Cueto 8,325,661 SP Johnny Cueto
calhoop 2016 Clayton Kershaw 7,766,928 SP Freddie Freeman
Jtpsops 2018 Max Scherzer 8,723,641 SP Max Scherzer
DarthDurron 2020 Dinelson Lamet 8,640,546 SP Corey Seager
joerat1 2021 Walker Buehler 7,234,369 SP Freddie Freeman
2/20/2022 3:40 PM
In my defense of my poor free agent predictions, many of the years had multiple good choices. This just happened to be the choice I made when I built a rough draft of each team. It's certainly possible I might have changed my mind had I actually selected the team. For example, I know the choice of RP Ken Sanders for 1970 isn't maybe the best choice, but he fit a desperate need. There is also a built in bias. I tended to select a hitting free agent if a hitting position was extremely weak and a pitching free agent if the overall pitching was extremely weak... the exception was if there wasn't a huge difference in the upgrade at the position of need.

For example, I would more likely upgrade at SS with a .825 OPS player to replace a .625 OPS player than upgrade at OF with a 1.050 OPS over an OF with a .850 OPS. The 200 additional OPS points is the same, but I can stomach the 850 OPS outfielder while I can't stomach the .625 OPS shortstop.

We could play this same league over again, with people selecting different years and we'd end up using a couple dozen different free agent choices.
2/20/2022 5:39 PM (edited)
League 1: 1899 Buck Freeman - Jesse Burkett
League 2: 1943 Lou Boudreau - Whit Wyatt
League 2: Paul Kiner - Ewell Blackwell
League 3: Billy Williams - Bobby Murcer
League 4: Miguel Cabrera - Clayton Kershaw

League 1 - No clue what I was thinking here - if I remember correctly, I had at least three "half-way" decent OF options on my roster but, of all things, I didn't have any decent First Base options. Therefore, the Buck stopped here;

League 2 (1943) for me was a no-brainer - there was not ONE decent Catching option available and Lou Boudreau became my everyday, every game Catcher. Another pitcher would have been nice, but...

Also in League 2, the year of 1947 offered ZERO great pitching options. Ewell Blackwell would have been a nice upgrade over anything else on my roster - but I just didn't think one pitcher would have made that much difference. Therefore, I took Kiner and added him to what "SHOULD" be an already potent offense to try and out-slug my opponents. So far, they haven't been that potent. I actually had Blackwell on my roster but changed him at the last second.

League 3 - Common sense told me to take Murcer but every single time I've ever had 1972 Billy Williams on my roster, he's been absolute money. I think they coded him "special" when they put him in the SIM...lol.

League 4 - Another time when a pitching upgrade would have been nice, but I just liked adding Cabrera's bat to the line-up. No gray matter used here - just a hunch.


2/21/2022 12:56 AM
Using the current rosters, I re-computed the estimated playing time for all the players on all the teams and used my formulas to calculate the standard deviation for ERC#, OPS# and defense, for every team. I then converted these into projected wins for each team. These numbers are based on each 12-team AL/NL league, so if there is an AL-vs-NL unbalance, the projections will be off a bit.

Actually, there's a pretty good chance these projections will be off anyway. I've never tried this before, so it will be interesting to see how close I get. There are many moving parts and variables I cannot account for, but the exercise was fun, nonetheless.

2/21/2022 10:26 PM
LEAGUE #1 .. Year .. Owner .. Pick# .. Proj Wins
NL East 1896 joert1 20 86.1
NL East 1895 firesalt 19 81.7
NL East 1894 razorclams 17 73.2
NL East 1898 kstober 23 71.1
.
NL Central 1901 schwarze 11 90.7
NL Central 1903 nocomm999 18 81.6
NL Central 1899 thejuice6 5 77.6
NL Central 1900 calhoop 16 77.3
.
NL West 1902 schwarze 2 95.2
NL West 1904 mllama54 6 81.1
NL West 1905 kstober 14 79.7
NL West 1906 glowguy 22 76.7
.
AL East 1911 redcped 3 90.6
AL East 1910 nocomm999 1 82.8
AL East 1908 Chisock 12 79.0
AL East 1912 mllama54 21 73.4
.
AL Central 1913 schwarze 7 87.7
AL Central 1919 pedrocerrano 8 85.6
AL Central 1914 DarthDurron 10 80.7
AL Central 1917 SteveIzzy 15 69.8
.
AL West 1924 crazyamos 4 90.6
AL West 1920 redcped 9 81.7
AL West 1925 toysboys 13 80.6
AL West 1922 pmars2001 24 69.5
2/21/2022 10:27 PM
LEAGUE #2 .. Year .. Owner .. Pick# Proj Wins
NL East 1928 nocomm999 7 92.8
NL East 1927 redcped 5 89.7
NL East 1931 kstober 20 78.8
NL East 1926 Chisock 22 72.2
.
NL Central 1933 pedrocerrano 2 98.9
NL Central 1937 DarthDurron 9 84.0
NL Central 1935 Jtpsops 19 76.0
NL Central 1936 markeking 8 74.5
.
NL West 1939 mllama54 11 87.5
NL West 1940 schwarze 14 82.1
NL West 1943 thejuice6 24 70.9
NL West 1942 3dayrotation 12 64.8
.
AL East 1944 ronthegenius 1 97.6
AL East 1945 schwarze 21 81.3
AL East 1946 toysboys 16 81.2
AL East 1947 thejuice6 6 79.7
.
AL Central 1951 schwarze 10 80.7
AL Central 1950 redcped 13 79.5
AL Central 1953 mllama54 23 75.6
AL Central 1952 joerat1 18 72.1
.
AL West 1954 schwarze 4 89.9
AL West 1957 DarthDurron 3 85.6
AL West 1955 calhoop 15 84.5
AL West 1956 glowguy 17 64.3
2/21/2022 10:28 PM
LEAGUE #3 .. Year .. Owner .. Pick# Proj Wins
NL East 1958 crazyamos 9 81.9
NL East 1963 schwarze 22 80.3
NL East 1959 ybjsports 2 76.2
NL East 1960 redcped 20 74.5
.
NL Central 1968 glowguy 14 86.8
NL Central 1966 DarthDurron 6 86.7
NL Central 1967 nocomm999 17 77.3
NL Central 1964 darny10 15 72.3
.
NL West 1971 pedrocerrano 3 91.5
NL West 1969 schwarze 1 89.2
NL West 1970 mllama54 4 81.5
NL West 1972 thejuice6 21 73.7
.
AL East 1976 schwarze 8 91.8
AL East 1973 pmars2001 19 88.2
AL East 1977 parking31 5 75.4
AL East 1975 Jtpsops 24 64.6
.
AL Central 1982 schwarze 10 95.8
AL Central 1979 DarthDurron 16 92.6
AL Central 1978 SteveIzzy 11 87.6
AL Central 1983 toysboys 23 76.3
.
AL West 1987 wallypipp 7 85.7
AL West 1989 markeking 13 81.3
AL West 1985 kstober 12 74.4
AL West 1986 ronthegenius 18 58.2
2/21/2022 10:29 PM
LEAGUE #4 .. Year .. Owner .. Pick# Proj Wins
NL East 1993 schwarze 9 82.4
NL East 1998 Chisock 19 78.1
NL East 1991 markeking 18 68.5
NL East 1994 3dayrotation 23 63.9
.
NL Central 1996 schwarze 14 92.1
NL Central 2002 pmars2001 3 83.0
NL Central 2001 DarthDurron 13 81.2
NL Central 1999 toysboys 21 73.4
.
NL West 2005 pedrocerrano 8 95.0
NL West 2003 mllama54 2 92.5
NL West 2006 nocomm999 11 84.1
NL West 2004 kstober 20 77.9
.
AL East 2011 schwarze 1 102.0
AL East 2008 redcped 12 90.2
AL East 2009 ybjsports 5 74.6
AL East 2007 SteveIzzy 15 70.2
.
AL Central 2014 schwarze 24 79.2
AL Central 2010 ronthegenius 17 78.6
AL Central 2012 thejuice6 23 69.7
AL Central 2013 urband 10 59.3
.
AL West 2020 DarthDurron 4 104.6
AL West 2016 calhoop 6 85.0
AL West 2018 Jtpsops 7 83.8
AL West 2021 joerat1 16 74.8
2/21/2022 10:29 PM
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