Posted by cubcub113 on 2/16/2023 8:09:00 PM (view original):
Bad sim, I would say you had a 70% chance to win. That being said, it isn't too surprising. You lost to Delta St. and Alabam Huntsville who are much weaker than Georgia College.

Looks like you're running target minutes. I would not do that. Tomasczewski specifically was far too tired. Garcia too. Explains why they TO so much and they are terrible defenders anyways.

THANKS for taking time to comment.

That's kinda what I felt (bad SIM) - as I mentioned I have (obviously) not done a great job game planning & game coaching (Mick Cronin anyone? - lol) ... I've obviously not figured what to target in my game planning.

Posted by texashick on 2/16/2023 9:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 2/16/2023 8:09:00 PM (view original):
Bad sim, I would say you had a 70% chance to win. That being said, it isn't too surprising. You lost to Delta St. and Alabam Huntsville who are much weaker than Georgia College.

Looks like you're running target minutes. I would not do that. Tomasczewski specifically was far too tired. Garcia too. Explains why they TO so much and they are terrible defenders anyways.

I agree with this with a slight caveat (which i bet Cub agrees with I just want to highlight). You should NEVER use target minutes... in the post season. I think there are multiple acceptable use cases in the regular season. The two most common ones being, 1) minute(s) promises you need to meet that dont align perfectly with your teams stamina and depth chart 2) you have a very deep team and you want to share the minutes somewhat evenly across the group. But once the CT starts (or even a few games before), you should always flip back to fatigue.

I somewhat disagree with the comments on what is the best chalk defense verse a sim. Personally, I prefer to play slightly under (95% of my games against simmy are -1), because generally SIMAI lets alot of bad shooters take 3 which i want to encourage. I generally play -1, but against this team I think -2 was a perfectly acceptable choice if you doubled the one good shooter. Like Cub said, I think this was a bad (but not entirely unreasonable) sim enhanced by likely a bad setting either in the fatigue/minutes setting or in the depth chart (which can cause a similar looking problem).

TY for stopping to comment.

I have done both target & fatigue over time in HD ... Keeping recruiting promises was principal in this season and didn't consider changing in NT (DUH in retrospect).

I had the DT on Vaughn who I thought was the main GA outside threat - seems S. Ark picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue ...

Posted by tecwrg on 2/16/2023 10:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie on 2/16/2023 2:02:00 PM (view original):
the kinda obvious facts in this one are that the sim team pressed, and that your team was significantly fatigued. this had a very substantial impact on the situation.

now, on to the less obvious parts. why were you so fatigued running 12 men? i am looking at palmer. dude has 77 stamina, 0 fouls. how did he play 13 minutes? you running target minutes over there?

in general, running target minutes in the NT as or against a press, is pretty dubious. or perhaps extremely dubious. however, it does seem like you had some good rationale behind this approach, assuming that is what you were doing - namely, balancing your offense throughout the duration of the game, i assume. however, there is a *significant* cost to running minutes into higher fatigue / foul scenarios. target minutes does not respond to fatigue and deals with foul trouble extremely poorly. there are perhaps justifications for running target minutes in the NT, i have played target minutes in a couple successful NTs myself (which to me means ending with a win), but i do not think i ever played target minutes in every game of a NT, i think i was going target minutes some games and fatigue some games. i do not think i have ever run a target minutes game in the NT against a press team, at least not intentionally (excluding times i realized i forgot to set a post season setup some time after my season was already over).

if you are able to get good value out of minutes, that's great - most coaches ignore it completely, which is a generally fine approach (and the approach i recommend to newer coaches). minutes can bring real value in terms of juggling regular season obligations, and i think it is also at times, optimal in the NT. so if you are doing well with it, i would encourage you to keep it in your toolbox, it has real value. however, if you want to run minutes at a really high level, you absolutely need to be adjusting game over game based on the conditions on the ground, and probably, ready to switch out of minutes into fatigue, when called for. in general, if you are always running minutes, you should go run fatigue a while and get good at it, because it is the main line depth chart setup.

I’m guessing that he had Palmer on target minutes so that he could bring Tomaszewski in off the bench and getter matchups against his opponents second string. Palmer started every game but only averaged 12mpg, while Tomaszewski came off the bench the entire season and averaged 26mpg (highest on the team). Interesting strategy, but not one I would deploy. Especially in the NT.

Appreciate your comments, THANKS.

I hope you're not traumatized from being inside my brain - LOL ... Spot on with your observations there with Palmer / Tomaszewski - Palmer fulfilling recruiting promise, Tomas against generally weaker D players ... Live & learn is all I can figure this is for me.

Posted by uglyskunk3 on 2/16/2023 11:34:00 PM (view original):
Gonna disagree with a few coaches here. Target minutes itself isn't the problem here. I run target minutes exclusively and have had success. Coaches that struggle with target minutes typically make the mistake of setting the target minutes they want a player to play, not what they should play.

As for Palmer, you undershot his ideal target minutes and shouldn't have been starting.

I agree with others that your positioning was not ideal, either.

Appreciate your comments.

Palmer was promised a start based on his future potential & low promised minutes - MAY work in the long run, may not - we'll see.
Obviously positioning was a an issue alongside a better than average game from GA - Oh well (sighhhh)

Posted by just win on 2/17/2023 11:16:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/16/2023 10:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie on 2/16/2023 2:02:00 PM (view original):
the kinda obvious facts in this one are that the sim team pressed, and that your team was significantly fatigued. this had a very substantial impact on the situation.

now, on to the less obvious parts. why were you so fatigued running 12 men? i am looking at palmer. dude has 77 stamina, 0 fouls. how did he play 13 minutes? you running target minutes over there?

in general, running target minutes in the NT as or against a press, is pretty dubious. or perhaps extremely dubious. however, it does seem like you had some good rationale behind this approach, assuming that is what you were doing - namely, balancing your offense throughout the duration of the game, i assume. however, there is a *significant* cost to running minutes into higher fatigue / foul scenarios. target minutes does not respond to fatigue and deals with foul trouble extremely poorly. there are perhaps justifications for running target minutes in the NT, i have played target minutes in a couple successful NTs myself (which to me means ending with a win), but i do not think i ever played target minutes in every game of a NT, i think i was going target minutes some games and fatigue some games. i do not think i have ever run a target minutes game in the NT against a press team, at least not intentionally (excluding times i realized i forgot to set a post season setup some time after my season was already over).

if you are able to get good value out of minutes, that's great - most coaches ignore it completely, which is a generally fine approach (and the approach i recommend to newer coaches). minutes can bring real value in terms of juggling regular season obligations, and i think it is also at times, optimal in the NT. so if you are doing well with it, i would encourage you to keep it in your toolbox, it has real value. however, if you want to run minutes at a really high level, you absolutely need to be adjusting game over game based on the conditions on the ground, and probably, ready to switch out of minutes into fatigue, when called for. in general, if you are always running minutes, you should go run fatigue a while and get good at it, because it is the main line depth chart setup.

I’m guessing that he had Palmer on target minutes so that he could bring Tomaszewski in off the bench and getter matchups against his opponents second string. Palmer started every game but only averaged 12mpg, while Tomaszewski came off the bench the entire season and averaged 26mpg (highest on the team). Interesting strategy, but not one I would deploy. Especially in the NT.

Appreciate your comments, THANKS.

I hope you're not traumatized from being inside my brain - LOL ... Spot on with your observations there with Palmer / Tomaszewski - Palmer fulfilling recruiting promise, Tomas against generally weaker D players ... Live & learn is all I can figure this is for me.

i'm thinking you may not realize based on your comments... as long as your players have not complained yet, you have 100% safety to ignore promises for the entire post season. if they have complained but have reported in as being happy since, you can also ignore promises. this is true on a player by player basis (so if player A is unhappy but player B is happy, you are safe to ignore promises for player B. there is some debate as to whether you can help the promises situation of player A if he is unhappy going into the post season, but i am pretty sure that you can help at least if minutes is the problem). there is no reason to continue starting that freshman in the CT and NT from a promises standpoint. work ethic still grows in the CT, but usually, its best to switch to your NT posture for the CT so you can work out kinks.

Posted by uglyskunk3 on 2/16/2023 11:34:00 PM (view original):
Gonna disagree with a few coaches here. Target minutes itself isn't the problem here. I run target minutes exclusively and have had success. Coaches that struggle with target minutes typically make the mistake of setting the target minutes they want a player to play, not what they should play.

As for Palmer, you undershot his ideal target minutes and shouldn't have been starting.

I agree with others that your positioning was not ideal, either.

its possible to make target minutes work fairly well against the press, but i think its sort of absolute that his target minutes setup led to his team being significantly more fatigued that it should have been, and that the resulting fatigue significantly disadvantaged his team this game. he could have run fatigue, or he could have run target minutes with a more press-appropriate set of settings, but one of those two things needed to happen.

i think the main story here is by far the fatigue. and i only looked at the game for 30 seconds to make that assessment hence my ignoring of the other issues. but i want to weigh in on the +/- now that its been raised.

as a general rule of thumb, sims take a lot of 3s and the + tends to be the better play when playing as the favorite, which is sort of the standard case for humans past an initial rebuild.

in this specific case, i think a +1 is also in order, very possibly also with a DT on the 100 per guy. a +2 could also be justified. just over 30% of FGA are 3s, that is a 0 to +1 in general in my book, negative is quite a gamble *when you are the favorite and 3pt volatility is perhaps your #1 risk of losing*. i guess i would disagree pretty strongly with everyone who suggested the -, even with a DT on the 100 per guy. its not just about %s, its about the quality of the scorers, and this team's lp scorers are significantly less of a concern than the per scoring. combing that with the fact that this is a game where the OP should be a significant favorite (if his fatgiue management was in order), a +1 or +2 over a - is a pretty clear conclusion to me.

Posted by just win on 2/17/2023 10:54:00 AM (view original):

Posted by R0pey on 2/16/2023 2:24:00 PM (view original):
Running a -2 against sims is always asking for an upset because everyone is set at 0 3 point frequency. Should usually run between 0 and +2 depending on their per ratings and your own 3PA.

Billy already mentioned you might be running target minutes and thats definitely not the way to go so read what he wrote on that if you were doing target minutes.

Also imo yea you were better but no by much I think you are looking at overall rating too much when comparing players like when you say their best player would be the 8th best on your roster. I definitely think there's players on GA college way better than just 8th best on your team. As well as the rpi/sos being inflated yes you should've won this game most of the time but imo this team isn't really anything more than a 1st round-s16 talent

I also think you didn't run the best lineup you couldve not just for this game but overall. I wouldn't want to start Levesque or Garcia. Even Hajek I see much better combination of a starter roster that don't involve any of those 3 starting. Like Tomas Marino Shaffer would probably given you a much better group

Tldr: you shouldve won that game majority of the time but you gameplanned poorly with the -2 that leads to upsets against sims as well as a few other errors. Again yea you shouldve won majority of the time, I've seen bigger upsets in the tournament tho

Appreciate your taking time to comment.

I had run -2 against SIMs with little PE talent or history in the past with great success - guess I was unaware they adapted more than it seemed ... Starters answer is I was trying to shake up the lineup a bit to always have some scoring on the floor - obviously backfired in this case.

In Smith D2, I was over all and sometimes specifically pretty well situated (I thought) ... #2 Overall, #22 SP, #7LP, #13 PE, #1 P - other non Top25 numbers were not far away outside of DE. ... Took this team over and previous coach didn't have a great Preseason schedule setup, so RPI was likely a bit higher than it should have been.

Im still trying to learn!

Running -2 against bad per teams can work and even have better results (bigger blowouts) but it just gives a higher upset chance than running between a 0 through +2 which limits the chance for a sim shooting like they did against you especially when you have a low ath/def team

All those top rankings are irrelevant really. Pretty much any team average is irrelevant. Ath/def are the only ones that give a general picture but even they don't mean much, but overall lp/per etc rankings literally mean nothing about how good a team is. Sure there might be some correlation but it's definitely not a good way to judge a teams ability.

It's fun to look at but I wouldn't ever take away anything too serious from them besides ath/def as a general indicator

Posted by just win on 2/17/2023 11:21:00 AM (view original):

Posted by uglyskunk3 on 2/16/2023 11:34:00 PM (view original):
Gonna disagree with a few coaches here. Target minutes itself isn't the problem here. I run target minutes exclusively and have had success. Coaches that struggle with target minutes typically make the mistake of setting the target minutes they want a player to play, not what they should play.

As for Palmer, you undershot his ideal target minutes and shouldn't have been starting.

I agree with others that your positioning was not ideal, either.

Appreciate your comments.

Palmer was promised a start based on his future potential & low promised minutes - MAY work in the long run, may not - we'll see.
Obviously positioning was a an issue alongside a better than average game from GA - Oh well (sighhhh)

You don't have to concern yourself with promises once the conference tournament begins, unless you've broken a promise and have an angry email to appease. You only need to start a player 21 of 26 regular season games to fulfill the promise. Continuing to start him after that benefits him but not your team.