Which on for Cy Young Topic

jvford
Posts: 1102 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 15 71
Prospect
For starters, this is wrong:

"1.  Balls not in play (K, BB, HBP, HR)  These are almost 100% under the pitcher's control."
2/22/2012 11:00 AM
oriolemagic
Posts: 253 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 10 93 95
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:32:00 AM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:23:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:17:00 AM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:15:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:13:00 AM (view original):
Sheldon pitched for Honolulu.  This is what you said "The fact that they were much better when Sheldon was out there is what they lost".   Does that no longer apply?  
I guess its in wording..  Any team is better when their best pitcher is on the mound.  Better?
Sure.   Should we penalize Ducey for the 1170 innings he wasn't on the mound for you?
I'm not penalizing either, I am using it as a basis for comparision, the same way you guys are.  We are saying the same thing.  The difference is in what you are replacing him with and how much it is costing you.  I can, to a point, buy the capacity argument.  What I am going to reply with is, you want max capacity at your best skills, and Ducey provides you more capacity then Sheldon.  Give me a breakdown of where the 81 innings are going (ie 10 to #2 pitcher at this skillset, 50 to bullpen at this skillset, etc) and then determine what the total Wins that combination produces and you can compare.  Otherwise just saying capacity doesnt give enough information to make a factual argument.
OK.  As I pointed out, Honolulu had 1320 innings from their staff that were better than what they'd have needed to cover those 81 innings. 

You could argue that all 81 came from Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Heinie Archer.   That's not realistic but you could argue that.   Most likely, he got 65+ innings from pitchers who were better than the .288/1.47/4.56 with the remainder coming from Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Heinie Archer  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Alex Guevara  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Eliezer Rosario  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Bret Ferguson.   IOW, roughly 80% of the time, Sheldon+RP was better than Ducey 100% of the time.   I like those odds.
And if all 81 came from a combination of that group?  Nobody in that group is under 4.55 to start with..  To go further you have a sample size issue with their stats.
2/22/2012 11:01 AM
oriolemagic
Posts: 253 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 10 93 95
Prospect
Posted by jvford on 2/22/2012 11:00:00 AM (view original):
For starters, this is wrong:

"1.  Balls not in play (K, BB, HBP, HR)  These are almost 100% under the pitcher's control."
No it is not.  Defense has 0 impact on K, BB, HBP, HR.  To a extremely slight degree a fielder can impact a HR, but its statistically irrelevant.
2/22/2012 11:02 AM
gjello10
Posts: 164 (0)
All Star
6 26
Prospect

Ummmm.... his facts are fine, it's his analysis, which relies on real-life concepts like FIP, replacement level, and BABIP which are not applicable here, or at least would need to be studied and tested to be made applicable here.  That is the problem.

2/22/2012 11:02 AM
gjello10
Posts: 164 (0)
All Star
6 26
Prospect
Posted by jvford on 2/22/2012 11:00:00 AM (view original):
For starters, this is wrong:

"1.  Balls not in play (K, BB, HBP, HR)  These are almost 100% under the pitcher's control."
Assuming both pitchers faced roughly similar hitters (on aggregate over the course of a long season), then it's not wrong.  His conclusions are still wrong, but that statement is correct in the way he meant it.
2/22/2012 11:03 AM
oriolemagic
Posts: 253 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 10 93 95
Prospect
Which was my point that JV doesnt understand the conversation so he should stop posting.  I am trying to move this into an analysis of those concepts, but he cant get past step 1.
2/22/2012 11:04 AM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 11:01:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:32:00 AM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:23:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:17:00 AM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:15:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:13:00 AM (view original):
Sheldon pitched for Honolulu.  This is what you said "The fact that they were much better when Sheldon was out there is what they lost".   Does that no longer apply?  
I guess its in wording..  Any team is better when their best pitcher is on the mound.  Better?
Sure.   Should we penalize Ducey for the 1170 innings he wasn't on the mound for you?
I'm not penalizing either, I am using it as a basis for comparision, the same way you guys are.  We are saying the same thing.  The difference is in what you are replacing him with and how much it is costing you.  I can, to a point, buy the capacity argument.  What I am going to reply with is, you want max capacity at your best skills, and Ducey provides you more capacity then Sheldon.  Give me a breakdown of where the 81 innings are going (ie 10 to #2 pitcher at this skillset, 50 to bullpen at this skillset, etc) and then determine what the total Wins that combination produces and you can compare.  Otherwise just saying capacity doesnt give enough information to make a factual argument.
OK.  As I pointed out, Honolulu had 1320 innings from their staff that were better than what they'd have needed to cover those 81 innings. 

You could argue that all 81 came from Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Heinie Archer.   That's not realistic but you could argue that.   Most likely, he got 65+ innings from pitchers who were better than the .288/1.47/4.56 with the remainder coming from Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Heinie Archer  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Alex Guevara  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Eliezer Rosario  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Bret Ferguson.   IOW, roughly 80% of the time, Sheldon+RP was better than Ducey 100% of the time.   I like those odds.
And if all 81 came from a combination of that group?  Nobody in that group is under 4.55 to start with..  To go further you have a sample size issue with their stats.

1.  I already said those 4 were worse.  They accounted for about 140 innings on Honolulu's staff.

2.  It's hard to believe that 100% of those 81 innings came from those 4 when they accounted for about 10% of the total innings throw by the entire staff.

3.  Sample size or not, that's what they produced in the season.   Do you have a sample size issue with Sheldon or Ducey?

2/22/2012 11:10 AM
gjello10
Posts: 164 (0)
All Star
6 26
Prospect
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 11:04:00 AM (view original):
Which was my point that JV doesnt understand the conversation so he should stop posting.  I am trying to move this into an analysis of those concepts, but he cant get past step 1.
Yeah, except this isn't an MLB forum.  Most people, including big time baseball fans, don't understand and don't want to understand Sabermetrics.  On the forums on Fangraphs, that's an appropriate place to lambaste someone for not getting these concepts.  This isn't.  Most people playing this game don't care about using Sabermetrics to measure real-life baseball, and you and I and Bobzilla are not going to convince them, and in any event, that's not the topic of this thread.

As I've said like 10 times in this thread, every Advanced Metric, including the concept of replacement level, is unmeaningful in HBD.

The idea of FIP, for example, is not a logical fact in real life.  It is a hypothesis that might or might not be true, which happens to have been proven to be functionally true by testing it against huge amounts of actual data.  In HBD, it is an untested hypothesis, which is another way of saying it is a meaningless theory until it is tested (a test I'm confident it would fail here).

The idea of replacement level would certainly be applicable to HBD, at least in theory.  But how to measure that would require a large amount o ftesting that has not been done (and probably never will be), so it is also not meaningful at this point.
2/22/2012 11:12 AM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Again, this has been ignored repeatedly:   NO ONE builds their staff based on Control, Velocity and GB/FB.   But pitchers with 90+ in those three categories would have a nice FIP because those largely control BB, K and HR.    It's just plain STUPID to insist on FIP as a meaningful stat in HBD.
2/22/2012 11:15 AM
jvford
Posts: 1102 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 15 71
Prospect
Posted by gjello10 on 2/22/2012 11:03:00 AM (view original):
Posted by jvford on 2/22/2012 11:00:00 AM (view original):
For starters, this is wrong:

"1.  Balls not in play (K, BB, HBP, HR)  These are almost 100% under the pitcher's control."
Assuming both pitchers faced roughly similar hitters (on aggregate over the course of a long season), then it's not wrong.  His conclusions are still wrong, but that statement is correct in the way he meant it.
No it's wrong.  Home Runs are not "almost 100% under the pitcher's control."  Luck plays a HUGE role in the variability of home runs season to season.  Which is why xFIP is used more often than FIP.
2/22/2012 11:17 AM
oriolemagic
Posts: 253 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 10 93 95
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 11:10:00 AM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 11:01:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:32:00 AM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:23:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:17:00 AM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:15:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:13:00 AM (view original):
Sheldon pitched for Honolulu.  This is what you said "The fact that they were much better when Sheldon was out there is what they lost".   Does that no longer apply?  
I guess its in wording..  Any team is better when their best pitcher is on the mound.  Better?
Sure.   Should we penalize Ducey for the 1170 innings he wasn't on the mound for you?
I'm not penalizing either, I am using it as a basis for comparision, the same way you guys are.  We are saying the same thing.  The difference is in what you are replacing him with and how much it is costing you.  I can, to a point, buy the capacity argument.  What I am going to reply with is, you want max capacity at your best skills, and Ducey provides you more capacity then Sheldon.  Give me a breakdown of where the 81 innings are going (ie 10 to #2 pitcher at this skillset, 50 to bullpen at this skillset, etc) and then determine what the total Wins that combination produces and you can compare.  Otherwise just saying capacity doesnt give enough information to make a factual argument.
OK.  As I pointed out, Honolulu had 1320 innings from their staff that were better than what they'd have needed to cover those 81 innings. 

You could argue that all 81 came from Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Heinie Archer.   That's not realistic but you could argue that.   Most likely, he got 65+ innings from pitchers who were better than the .288/1.47/4.56 with the remainder coming from Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Heinie Archer  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Alex Guevara  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Eliezer Rosario  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Bret Ferguson.   IOW, roughly 80% of the time, Sheldon+RP was better than Ducey 100% of the time.   I like those odds.
And if all 81 came from a combination of that group?  Nobody in that group is under 4.55 to start with..  To go further you have a sample size issue with their stats.

1.  I already said those 4 were worse.  They accounted for about 140 innings on Honolulu's staff.

2.  It's hard to believe that 100% of those 81 innings came from those 4 when they accounted for about 10% of the total innings throw by the entire staff.

3.  Sample size or not, that's what they produced in the season.   Do you have a sample size issue with Sheldon or Ducey?

1 - Lets just not loose track of this
2 - Is it hard to believe that they accounted for 10% of the innings because his staff was tired or otherwise not able to pitch?
3 - I am fine with using their stats because they only help my argument.  I was giving a fair warning that sample size is an issue when someone pitches 10 innings.  Its less of an issue when someone pitches 200.  Its even less of an issue if we look at career stats, which I would be happy to "estimate" what we expect from these guys.
2/22/2012 11:18 AM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
1.  I haven't.
2.  Yes.  Math and probability suggest they pitched equally for all pitchers.  I was being generous by giving them 20%.
3.  It's 140 accumulated innings.  Less than 10% of an entire season.  I'm fine with using them also because of #2.

2/22/2012 11:20 AM
jvford
Posts: 1102 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 15 71
Prospect
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 11:04:00 AM (view original):
Which was my point that JV doesnt understand the conversation so he should stop posting.  I am trying to move this into an analysis of those concepts, but he cant get past step 1.
Really?  By analysis do you mean "look at what Bobzilla posted"?
2/22/2012 11:21 AM
JFerg
Posts: 86 (0)
Veteran
9 1 2 4 13
Prospect
Posted by gjello10 on 2/22/2012 11:02:00 AM (view original):

Ummmm.... his facts are fine, it's his analysis, which relies on real-life concepts like FIP, replacement level, and BABIP which are not applicable here, or at least would need to be studied and tested to be made applicable here.  That is the problem.

I know I said I was done, but I liked this post, so I wanted so say something.  My analysis really only relied on ERA, replacement level, and park effects.  By using ERA, I was giving Sheldon full credit for preventing hits on balls in play.  I never used FIP to say Ducey was better, except when I mentioned that he did better as far as balls not in play.  And his doing better in this particular subset of a pitcher's skill is tied to his ability in this particular season to keep the ball in the park better than Sheldon.  I'm pretty sure that I mentioned in other posts that if talent is distributed differently than in MLB, the concept of replacement wouldn't work.  And like I said in another post, without replacement level being lower than average, both pitchers are going to be just about even.    I think I even mentioned in my first post that you can't argue with the math, only with the assumptions.  

Anyways, gjello10 does know what he's talking about.

Bobzilla
2/22/2012 11:21 AM
gjello10
Posts: 164 (0)
All Star
6 26
Prospect
Posted by jvford on 2/22/2012 11:17:00 AM (view original):
Posted by gjello10 on 2/22/2012 11:03:00 AM (view original):
Posted by jvford on 2/22/2012 11:00:00 AM (view original):
For starters, this is wrong:

"1.  Balls not in play (K, BB, HBP, HR)  These are almost 100% under the pitcher's control."
Assuming both pitchers faced roughly similar hitters (on aggregate over the course of a long season), then it's not wrong.  His conclusions are still wrong, but that statement is correct in the way he meant it.
No it's wrong.  Home Runs are not "almost 100% under the pitcher's control."  Luck plays a HUGE role in the variability of home runs season to season.  Which is why xFIP is used more often than FIP.
Well, this is semantics because I also prefer xFIP to FIP, but random variance over a small sample size is not the same thing as lack of control over the variable. Over a large enough sample, assuming 2 pitchers face similar quality aggregate hitters, a difference in HR/9 is basically entirely down to the pitcher, the same way K/9 and BB/9 are, and in a way that BABIP is not due to fielding.
2/22/2012 11:26 AM
◂ Prev 1...20|21|22|23|24 Next ▸
Which on for Cy Young Topic
△Top△Bottom

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2026 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.