Home Run comparison Topic

hartjh14
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 1/06/2010Would that be considered nitpicking? From a personal standpoint, I saw some pretty big hits on 90+ power guys, smaller but significant hits on 80+ power guys and virtually no change in the rest. However, 81 still seems to have more power than 79. As well it should
Maybe, maybe not. that's why I'm interested in the discussion. I haven't made up my mind one way or the other. I've never used the 10/100/40/30/60 type player, so even my elite power guys are still playing well and are among the elite power hitters in the league. I don't have a dog in the fight, but if things aren't working the way they are supposed to, I'd like to know about it. It helps when making decisions on boarderline players.
1/6/2010 8:38 AM
antonsirius
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Quote: Originally posted by robproc on 1/06/2010I've been talking to WIS quite often during the past couple weeks, and they insist that HRs are turning in 3Bs, 2Bs, and 1B.

Unless they're also claiming 3B and 2B are turning into 1B at the exact same rate HR are turning into 3B and 2B, there's zero indication that's what's actually happening.
1/6/2010 8:46 AM
robproc
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Quote: Originally Posted By hartjh14 on 1/06/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 1/06/2010
Would that be considered nitpicking? From a personal standpoint, I saw some pretty big hits on 90+ power guys, smaller but significant hits on 80+ power guys and virtually no change in the rest. However, 81 still seems to have more power than 79. As well it should.
Maybe, maybe not. that's why I'm interested in the discussion. I haven't made up my mind one way or the other. I've never used the 10/100/40/30/60 type player, so even my elite power guys are still playing well and are among the elite power hitters in the league. I don't have a dog in the fight, but if things aren't working the way they are supposed to, I'd like to know about it. It helps when making decisions on boarderline players
I'm in the same camp as you. Still deliberating, but skeptical. Like I said on the previous page of this thread, just looking 10 minutes this morning, I noticed 15 hitters, with high ratings in every hitting category, .200-.300 OPS below their last 3 year averages. WIS has told me that it's a fluke, and I hope that is the case. I've just never seen such massive underperformance.
1/6/2010 8:48 AM
MikeT23
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Well, robproc, if you read my post about league-wide team averages from season to season, you'd see that the only numbers that have changed are power numbers. If you have more than 2 seasons under your belt, you know that individual results fluctuate from year to year.

So I'm not sure why you're skeptical. A world will have approximately 380 hitters on BL rosters at any time. You're looking at 15 hitters and saying "Hmmmm.....I wonder!"

Your skepticism doesn't add up.
1/6/2010 8:56 AM
98greenc5
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Quote: Originally Posted By robproc on 1/06/2010I've just never seen such massive underperformance
have you ever looked before?

today you went witch hunting for an "effect" to un-scientifically link to a "cause" and your whopping 10 minutes of research were enough to raise your skeptecism

but did you ever go hunting for underperformance before? ... maybe in 10 minutes last season you could have found 15 "underperformers" ... of course, without a "cause" to pattern-associate with the "effect" it doesn't have the same charm
1/6/2010 12:00 PM
kahrtmen
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Stats from individual worlds are not nearly as telling as the HBD World Snapshot data I showed in the first post. That is the average of every world. The average player has seen a dip of 30 points of SLG due entirely to lower HR outputs. 200-300 pt OPS swings are just bad luck.

Like MikeT has said, EVERY stat is identical with the exception of home runs. This leads to a more realistic statline, which is ultimately a good thing. I doubt the veracity of the claim that HRs are becoming 2bs and 3bs, since, like antonsirius said, it's very unlikely that HR are being converted to 2b/3b at EXACTLY the same rate as 2b/3b being converted to 1b. I suppose it's semantics. Ultimately, the average HBD line is more realistic now.
1/6/2010 12:09 PM
tecwrg
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More fuel for the fire, though perhaps not on the fire that the whiners have started.

Jayson Mills is my big power guy in MG. His power numbers are way down this season, which has been played entirely since the update.

But, if you'll notice . . . all his numbers (particularly power) were also down in season 13. Which was played entirely before the update.

Which just lends more creedence to the concept that sometimes players just have bad seasons, and that one shouldn't necessarily jump to conclusions and point fingers at the update when they see their sluggers having bad seasons.
1/6/2010 12:14 PM
toddcommish
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Quote: Originally Posted By kahrtmen on 1/06/2010Like MikeT has said, EVERY stat is identical with the exception of home runs. This leads to a more realistic statline, which is ultimately a good thing. I doubt the veracity of the claim that HRs are becoming 2bs and 3bs, since, like antonsirius said, it's very unlikely that HR are being converted to 2b/3b at EXACTLY the same rate as 2b/3b being converted to 1b. I suppose it's semantics. Ultimately, the average HBD line is more realistic now.
Just to point out the flaw in this reasoning... the hits (and all events in HBD) are based on mathematical formulae, meaning that it is MORE likely that all hits would be converted at the exact same rate plus or minus a standard deviation.
1/6/2010 12:22 PM
kahrtmen
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Agreed - there is simply no point in citing specific player examples. You need massive sample sizes to really spot the differences.
1/6/2010 12:25 PM
MikeT23
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I'm not a big homer guy but just to prove the dumbassery of "My guy is underperforming" is stupid, here are my 20+ homer guys from last season in MG:

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=560151 Up across the board in everything except homers despite losing 4 in power

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=563235 Lost 7 in power and his stats have taken a beating(he's 37)

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1072368 Lost 3 in power and has stayed pretty much the same in everything except HR/SLG

All over the board. All lost power ratings and all have had various results.
1/6/2010 12:30 PM
98greenc5
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Quote: Originally Posted By kahrtmen on 1/06/2010The average player has seen a dip of 30 points of SLG due entirely to lower HR outputs.
I disagree with the simplicity of this conclusion

slugging of "the average of players playing today" is down 30 points compared to "the average of players playing before the update" ... but it is NOT entirely due to lower HR outputs ... first, those former HR machines aren't all playing now because some of them suck now (although this effect *is* a by-product of the HR logic change) ... but the defensive engine was also changed, and owners may have swapped offensive players for defensive players ... and the HR logic change is not responsible for any fallout from this
1/6/2010 12:38 PM
snake_p
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Quote: Originally Posted By torrone on 1/06/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 1/06/2010
Uh, the objective of the update was to decrease homers.
Well, then they accomplished their goal. But a 1900 HR decrease leaguewide from pre to post update indicates to me that it's affecting more than just the elite power guys, even if it is affecting them the most


Of course. It must. Which performance would you want from power numbers, A or B?

A: 10<20<30<40<50<60<70<80<90

B: 10<20<30<40<50<60=70=80=90
1/6/2010 12:38 PM
phillyfan009
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I for one, am glad to see the home run totals more"normal". I have been scanning worlds, and see where some players hit 70,80 or possibly more. I think even in Colorado, that would not be realistic. I also noticed that some of the reason players have a declining year, maybe the team they are on. I mean a team that is not playing well, or has below average players surrounding a big hitter........... why would he get good pitches to hit. I remember someone telling me.. one good way to succeed, is to build around your ballpark. Maybe that is wrong, but it seems like a good idea to me... How many guys would hit 60-80 homer runs playing in Seattle?
1/6/2010 12:38 PM
kahrtmen
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This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.
1/6/2010 12:42 PM
phillyfan009
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I would love to have 8 Bobby Abreu type hitters on my team...rather than 8 Dave Kingman type. I love the fact that HBD is trying to get this as close to realistic as they can.....and from what I have read and saw...they are really doing alot better at that.
1/6/2010 12:42 PM
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