Another Flaw in RPI logic Topic

dalter
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At 1.05 to .95 (or even 1.1 to 0.9) you'd be an idiot to schedule a road game at DI. But hey, you're the stats guy, right?
1/12/2010 6:50 PM
colonels19
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Yeah, because I'm sure everyone is thinking about what their RPIs are going to be for X game every time they schedule a non-con in real life...that's why all the good teams schedule a bunch of home games..... Non-con schedules IRL are more about paydays than RPI/rankings and the like....I remember when I went to Oakland-MI university, our coach Greg Kampe was my sports writing professor and he said that Xavier paid them $80K to play at their place...money talks, solely almost.
1/12/2010 6:56 PM
thewizard2
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Let's say UDC loses those 5 games vs the RPI Top 25 by an average of 20 points per game? Are they still worthy of their RPI?
1/12/2010 7:50 PM
colonels19
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Given the way the RPI ranking was comprised originally in 1981 and altered in 2004, yes, they're worthy of their RPI, given the rules of the RPI. I don't really understand what you're getting at here...WIS has RPI programmed right, its just that RPI isn't a good ranker per se in HD especially because of non-con schedule manipulation and because as you've pointed out, it doesn't take margin into consideration. Not trying to pitch it or pat myself on the back, but I think you'd really like my BPI rankings. We basically have the same thought process(es).
1/12/2010 8:04 PM
doomey
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Quote: Originally Posted By jpritchard on 1/12/2010
My recollection is WIS RPI uses a slightly different formula than the real RPI.


Not according to CS.

And as far as RL RPI goes, the mid-majors have worked that change to their advantage, since the big boys want the revenue of home games. The majors will win most of the competitions, but the mids will get about the same RPI boost for a loss and a huge boon on an upset. They went too far in weighting losses on the road, just as WIS has mirrored. But for the record, I'd rather see a guy who played big games and lost in than a guy who played cupcakes for a bloated record, which is just as much of a problem come selection time.
1/12/2010 9:25 PM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 1/12/2010Yeah, because I'm sure everyone is thinking about what their RPIs are going to be for X game every time they schedule a non-con in real life...that's why all the good teams schedule a bunch of home games..... Non-con schedules IRL are more about paydays than RPI/rankings and the like....I remember when I went to Oakland-MI university, our coach Greg Kampe was my sports writing professor and he said that Xavier paid them $80K to play at their place...money talks, solely almost
I'm talking about HD. But that doesn't change Oakland's unmatched reputation as the Harvard of northern Detroit.
1/12/2010 9:31 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 1/12/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 1/12/2010
Yeah, because I'm sure everyone is thinking about what their RPIs are going to be for X game every time they schedule a non-con in real life...that's why all the good teams schedule a bunch of home games..... Non-con schedules IRL are more about paydays than RPI/rankings and the like....I remember when I went to Oakland-MI university, our coach Greg Kampe was my sports writing professor and he said that Xavier paid them $80K to play at their place...money talks, solely almost.
I'm talking about HD. But that doesn't change Oakland's unmatched reputation as the Harvard of northern Detroit
Well those weights came from real life and WIS directly implemented RPI as is in real life, thus I thought you were talking about a real life change. As much as I don't like the weights as is, I don't want WIS to alter the RPI formula, as it works how it officially does in the real world. With that said, I still think WIS needs to put limits on home/away non-con games....I think 5 each is good...and I also think that WIS needs to put limits on the number of sims you can manually schedule in non-con, because I am abusing and will continue to abuse that to death.

As far as your jab at Oakland-MI University goes...I graduated with Honors...no its not Harvard but it takes a lot of hard work, dedication and perseverance to graduate from any 4 year university, and I'm proud of what I accomplished and those that have graduated from 2 or 4 year universities should be proud as well. Just because its more common nowadays doesn't make it any less of an achievement.
1/12/2010 9:46 PM
schroedess26
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66% wins to 33% wins how don't you understand how that works out to a 3:1 ratio? They wanted to make the games even since 66% of the time your going to win at home and 33% of the time your going to win on the road.

I don't understand why you would have a ratio if it didn't mirror the average? When going on the road your supposed to lose 66% so to even that our they put the ratio in.

I even quoted the example. You can personally think they shouldn't have in a ratio but if your bringing in a ratio you have to bring in the 3:1 otherwise its absurd as you might as well just schedule the games at home. You will win more likely and will pay off.

Also, the 3:1 ratio is only added in for the 25% of your own winning percentage, not your opponents winning percentage which is 50% or your opponets oppenets winning percentage which is 25% of RPI.
1/12/2010 11:11 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By schroedess26 on 1/13/201066% wins to 33% wins how don't you understand how that works out to a 3:1 ratio? That's 2 to 1 actually...3 to 1 would be 75-25 They wanted to make the games even since 66% of the time your going to win at home and 33% of the time your going to win on the road.

I don't understand why you would have a ratio if it didn't mirror the average? When going on the road your supposed to lose 66% so to even that our they put the ratio in. HCA varies from school to school and I just think given the eye test and its past effectiveness or lackthereof, 1.4 and 0.6 are a bit excessive.

I even quoted the example. You can personally think they shouldn't have in a ratio but if your bringing in a ratio you have to bring in the 3:1 otherwise its absurd as you might as well just schedule the games at home. You will win more likely and will pay off.

Also, the 3:1 ratio is only added in for the 25% of your own winning percentage, not your opponents winning percentage which is 50% or your opponets oppenets winning percentage which is 25% of RPI. Its still a major component of the formula.
1/13/2010 9:33 AM
schroedess26
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WHAT WAS I THINKING?!? haha 2:1 wow talk about not paying attention yesterday.

Well I still don't know if its excessive, because when looking at the 66% winning right now it should be 1.2 and .6 if you wanted a true 2:1 formula. Problem is that when you look at that 66% home record your also including the worst teams in D1 as well, who are 3-22 over a whole season. I will try to find the win record for just the D1 TOP 100 RPI at home and away to see what that percentage comes out to.
1/13/2010 10:39 AM
colonels19
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I'm not disputing the fact that home teams win a lot more often, but that's really common knowledge. I personally think the weights are unnecessary because when it comes down to it, many teams play the same or close to the same amount of home games as away games, but I've accepted weights as apart of the RPI, I just think their impact needs to be lessened.
1/13/2010 10:46 AM
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