Quote: Originally Posted By gjello10 on 4/01/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By jweiland on 4/01/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By jonas1102 on 3/31/2010

Bats	vs.	AVG
L	LH	66.3
RH	68.2
R	LH	67.3
RH	61.7
S	LH	65.1
RH	63.6

A y with a 68 split vs. RHB is not equal to a righty with a 68 split vs. RHB. A y with a 68 split vs. RHB is roughly equal to the average RH MLers batting split vs. LH.

This y with lower control, bad pitches, and an average split is going to get torched by RH batters.

Can you explain this a little better? I'm listening it's just hard to follow because you don't explain exactly what that chart is. So you're saying a y pitcher with a 68 against righties would be ... league average? Below league average?

I'd kill for this guy to be anywhere close to that. He's about double league average right now.

No- what he's saying is that your counter-example (molina) was a RHP with 67 vsR. What this chart is trying to say is that a LHP with 68 vsR will be significantly less effective (against RH batters, all other things like pitches and control being equal) than a RHP with a 67 vsR. This is because the LHP with 68 vsR will face RH hitters with an average vsL of 67.3, so there is no significant split advantage. Whereas an RHP with a 67 vsR with face RH hitters with an average vsR of 61.7, giving the pitcher a significant split advantage.

Or, to put it more briefly, you are underestimating the importance of handedness. You seem to think that a LHP and a RHP with similar ratings should perform similarly, when this is not neccesarily the case.

Well I get that, but if a LH with a 68 rating against righties goes up against guys with ratings around 68 against handed pitchers shouldn't he be able to battle them evenly? Like, say, instead of getting his *** handed to him every time he comes into the game? That's what I was asking ... should a 68 vs. 68 produce such lopsided results?

Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 4/01/2010That only holds water if LH batters hit RH pitchers better. That's definitely not the case. I don't know how many is "too much" but there are a lot of "reverse split" hitter out there

I know I've seen a fair number of reverse split guys out there. It'd be interesting to study exactly how common that is.

A quick check of my MG team says 5 of my 11 hitters(I excluded the two SH) hit the same hand better.

5 of 12 in Hamilton(excluding SH).

That seems to confirm pretty much what I thought.

I've seen a ton of right handers that hit righties better than ies.

I've got a y hitter with 51/0 splits.

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2487564

71/5 for a y

All those reverse split guys are included in those numbers. Those are the average splits for every ML position player in Mantle. There is also 3 times as many RH hitters as their are LH hitters.

And looking at the pitcher in question:

vs. LH
S15 .286/.342/.486
S14 .275/.373/.431

vs. RH
S15 .385/.455/.692
S14 .321/.382/.500

Quite the shocker. A guy with a 80/68 splits and poor pitches doesn't do well against anyone but does better against LH.

I'm not sure if his splits help or hurt your case. He has a .70 point difference in S14 and a .206 different in S15.

.70 seems pretty fair, given how much better he is against ies. .206 seems extreme.

Quote: Originally Posted By jonas1102 on 4/01/2010All those reverse split guys are included in those numbers. Those are the average splits for every ML position player in Mantle. There is also 3 times as many RH hitters as their are LH hitters

This also fails to address my actualy question about your point: does a pitcher with a 68 split against righties get mashed this much against righties with 68 splits against ies? Is 68 vs. 68 this much in favor of the hitters? That seems extreme to me.

He's also a RP so the sample size is tiny. Add/subtract a couple of hits from either side and it's a whole 'nother ball game.

I think I side with those that feel he was throwing too many pitches a game and despite his positive attributes (control, decent splits, etc.) his pitch quality is just too low.

Then you're on the right side.

I could show you dozens of examples of a 72 control, 80/68 split pitcher being very good. But it's unlikely that I'll find one with a top pitch of 70.

You could also probably find dozens of examples of guys with better splits and control being very good. But THIS GUY, with one above average skill, sucks. Why does this guy suck? Because THIS GUY sucks.