ADV has no bearing on development, its just a device to show potential in prospects...

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ok, i was going to stay out of this, but there are different ways to evaluate players...



one by using trends, another by using projections. both can be accurate, both can be inaccurate.



either make the deal or don't, but evaluate the player on your own, real MLB teams don't take another GM's word for how good a player is, they scout and decide on their own

The only people who see the full actual projected stats are site-staff. The rest of us are just guessing.

You have to use some combination of trends and advance scouting, in my opinion. Trusting projections doesn't work when you can see the guy will never reach his potential. But at the same time, basing it off two year growth doesn't account for mitigating factors like injury history, coaching, training budgets, et al.

It's much easier for me to figure out where my prospects will end up than it is for me to figure out where your prospects will.

hey sorry to take this thread on a minor tangent, but this has gotten me thinking, I always thought advanced scouting providing both more accurate info on 'current' ratings as well as 'projected' ratings, but from readying this I am starting to think I was horribly wrong and that everyone can see the same 'current' ratings and those are always 100% accurate, is that true? Sorry I know to the experts here this is probably a pretty stupid question. I did check the Help guide and it does say 'projected ratings' but I just wanted to get confirmation from the experts that everyone can see the same current ratings no matter how much they spend on Advanced Scouting.

Everyone sees the same current ratings and they are 100% accurate

thanks!!! time to start reducing the advanced scouting I guess ;)

I seem to make a lot of trades involving players 22 and younger so I like to use a combo of scouting and my own projections based on TheJester's formula. I feel safer this way.

I heard white sox GM Kenny Williams explain his take on whether he uses sabermetrics or the eye test to scout and predict talent: some people like beer and some people like pizza, but the truth is that you get the best results when you use both at the same time. It works, for me anyway, in hbd too. I use the projections I'm given by scouts and balance it with my own estimations.

I've only logged 2 1/2 seasons in HBD, but I totally agree with Trop on this one. I save the projections from my college/HS scouts and look for trends as players develop. I don't save projections for IFAs, but I do tend to remember who the good ones were.

Although I find advanced scouting completely useless, I do admit that it can make trading difficult, especially if the other owner has a limited or poor track record when drafting.

Quote: Originally posted by coonja76 on 4/17/2010And of course, seeing as how this vet is trying to convince me that it's the norm that I'm seeing drastically low projections with my $18 Adv Scouting, then with my standard $20 Training, my prospects should be cruising right by the projections I'm seeing. However, I have NEVER seen a prospect go past the projections I'm seeing at $18 Adv Scouting... So, why is this?

It appears to me that WIS pulled a boner. It would be sensible that scouts would often underproject a player, as well as overproject a player -- perhaps just about as often, according to a bell-shaped distribution curve, perhaps not, but probably not far from it.

But in HBD, players only infrequently even meet their projections.

Quote: Originally Posted By ArlenWilliam on 4/20/2010

Quote: Originally posted by coonja76 on 4/17/2010
And of course, seeing as how this vet is trying to convince me that it's the norm that I'm seeing drastically low projections with my $18 Adv Scouting, then with my standard $20 Training, my prospects should be cruising right by the projections I'm seeing. However, I have NEVER seen a prospect go past the projections I'm seeing at $18 Adv Scouting... So, why is this?

It appears to me that WIS pulled a boner. It would be sensible that scouts would often underproject a player, as well as overproject a player -- perhaps just about as often, according to a bell-shaped distribution curve, perhaps not, but probably not far from it.

But in HBD, players only infrequently even meet their projections.

Disagree. At least for HS and College scouting, player frequently exceed their projections even with a budget of 20. We just notice players who fall short more because we expect more of them and watch them closer.