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prezuiwf
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Posted by MikeT23 on 6/29/2010 9:35:00 AM (view original):
It doesn't really matter if "luck" is incorporated into the game.   The results are somewhat random.    The random result of a ball in play is hit, out or error.   The random result of a strikeout is strikeout.
Precisely-- in other words, I think the luck factor would have to be in the game. The only result of a K is a K. If you make solid contact, pure statistical probability is your luck. So a guy who doesn't strike out much has a much better chance of improving a batting average or maintaining a high batting average.
6/29/2010 9:56 AM
dmurphy104
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Posted by MikeT23 on 6/29/2010 9:35:00 AM (view original):
It doesn't really matter if "luck" is incorporated into the game.   The results are somewhat random.    The random result of a ball in play is hit, out or error.   The random result of a strikeout is strikeout.

I recall a 2 thread 'discussion' centering on this topic awhile back. Sadly, I think those threads are forever lost.

6/29/2010 10:24 AM
jimmystick
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Ok.  I mean I'm not totally satisfied with that answer.  I don't think anybody is going to disagree that in real life more balls in play will result in more hits just based on luck alone.  But in the game, I think anything is possible.  I have some experience programming... not much... but some.  I don't think its completely out of the question that a baseball computer game would leave luck out of the game.  It's possible they could have programmed it in as well.  But, for simulation purposes, just because a batter puts more balls in play doesn't automattically mean he'll get more hits, as it does in real life.
6/29/2010 10:28 AM
antonsirius
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That is a damn shame, murph.
6/29/2010 10:28 AM
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dmurphy104
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Found the part II thread.
6/29/2010 10:35 AM
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jimmystick
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Posted by MikeT23 on 6/29/2010 10:36:00 AM (view original):
OK, JS, what do you think the process is for determining the result of an AB?

I think:   1.  Walk, Strikeout, Ball in Play.    2.  Hit, Out, Error.   3.  Plays off the three options of #2(What type of hit, what sort of out, what kind of error).

I think of it as a "tree".   Walk/Strikeout-end of play    BIP branches out.  And the results of BIP branch out.
I think you're right.  It very well could be a tree.  In fact, if I were to program it, that's how I would do it.  Maybe I'm just overcomplicating things for myself.  Or maybe I'm seeing something that nobody else sees.  Or maybe I'm just not able to verbalize my theory/questions properly so that everybody understands it.  

What I thought all along was what everybody else is trying to tell me, which is that higher contact does lead to higher BA.  It's only lately that I'm starting to have second thoughts.  I guess I'll ask my question the next time they have a dev chat.
6/29/2010 11:02 AM
mchalesarmy
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Posted by jimmystick on 6/29/2010 10:28:00 AM (view original):
Ok.  I mean I'm not totally satisfied with that answer.  I don't think anybody is going to disagree that in real life more balls in play will result in more hits just based on luck alone.  But in the game, I think anything is possible.  I have some experience programming... not much... but some.  I don't think its completely out of the question that a baseball computer game would leave luck out of the game.  It's possible they could have programmed it in as well.  But, for simulation purposes, just because a batter puts more balls in play doesn't automattically mean he'll get more hits, as it does in real life.
It's not "luck", it's a combination of all the other factors. Most importantly range and glove of the fielders. A guy who strikes out 100 times will NEVER get the benefit of a bad fielder in those 100 PAs. A guy who strikes out only 30 times will have 70 more opportunities for a - play or an error getting him on base.
6/29/2010 11:02 AM
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prezuiwf
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So that every play is just a hit, walk, or out, and the engine just determines which kind of each it is (so that the engine just determines "OUT" and then calls it a fly out, ground out, or strikeout after the fact)? I guess it could be that way, but honestly I don't know why it would be. It seems like it would be easier the other way and make the game more realistic.
6/29/2010 11:38 AM
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brrexkl
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  Unless they work with COBALT or ASC-II, then it's not a Tree... more of a Branch. :)
6/29/2010 1:20 PM
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